A probabilistic wind power forecasting model considering power error correlation
New energy sources， such as wind power， are characterized by volatility and intermittency， leading to significant uncertainty in wind power output and errors in power forecasting. To accurately capture the differentiated distribution of power forecasting errors， a copula-based probabilistic wind pow...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
| Published: |
zhejiang electric power
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Zhejiang dianli |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://zjdl.cbpt.cnki.net/portal/journal/portal/client/paper/ecb4bb7f99044e00ec1d3a3bba59f9a4 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | New energy sources， such as wind power， are characterized by volatility and intermittency， leading to significant uncertainty in wind power output and errors in power forecasting. To accurately capture the differentiated distribution of power forecasting errors， a copula-based probabilistic wind power forecasting model considering power error correlation is proposed. First， a wind power point forecasting model is developed using prompt learning to predict the trends in wind power. Subsequently， a copula is employed to analyze the correlation between wind power forecasting and forecasting errors， enabling the establishment of probability density functions for forecasting errors corresponding to each forecasting value. This method determines the range of potential fluctuations in wind power forecasting within a given confidence level. Finally， the proposed probabilistic wind power forecasting model is validated， demonstrating its effectiveness. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1007-1881 |