An Empirical Model of the Occurrence Rate of Low Latitude Post‐Sunset Plasma Irregularities Derived From CHAMP and Swarm Magnetic Observations
Abstract The prediction of post‐sunset equatorial plasma depletions (EPDs), often called ionospheric plasma bubbles, has remained a challenge for decades. In this study, we introduce the Ionospheric Bubble Probability (IBP) model, an empirical model to predict the occurrence probability of EPDs deri...
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Wiley
2024-06-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003809 |
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| author | C. Stolle T. A. Siddiqui L. Schreiter S. K. Das I. Rusch M. Rother E. Doornbos |
| author_facet | C. Stolle T. A. Siddiqui L. Schreiter S. K. Das I. Rusch M. Rother E. Doornbos |
| author_sort | C. Stolle |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The prediction of post‐sunset equatorial plasma depletions (EPDs), often called ionospheric plasma bubbles, has remained a challenge for decades. In this study, we introduce the Ionospheric Bubble Probability (IBP) model, an empirical model to predict the occurrence probability of EPDs derived from 9 years of CHAMP and 9 years of Swarm magnetic field measurements. The model predicts the occurrence probability of EPDs for a given longitude, day of year, local time and solar activity, for the altitude range of about 350–510 km, and low geographic latitudes of ±45°. IBP has been found to successfully reconstruct the distribution of EPDs as reported in previous studies from independent data. IBP has been further evaluated using 1‐year of untrained data of the Ionospheric Bubble Index (IBI). IBI is a Level 2 product of the Swarm satellite mission used for EPD identification. The relative operating characteristics (ROC) curve shows positive excursion above the no‐skill line with Hanssen and Kuiper's Discriminant (H&KSS) score of 0.52, 0.51, and 0.55 at threshold model output of 0.16 for Swarm A, B, and C satellites. Additionally, the reliability plots show proximity to the diagonal line with a decent Brier Skill Score (BSS) of 0.249, 0.210, and 0.267 for Swarm A, B, and C respectively at 15% climatological occurrence rate. These tests indicate that the model performs significantly better than a no‐skill forecast. The IBP model offers compelling glimpses into the future of EPD forecasting, thus demonstrating its potential to reliably predict EPD occurrences. The IBP model is publicly available. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-54af05b89d444770afea322715e99801 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-54af05b89d444770afea322715e998012025-01-14T16:30:50ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902024-06-01226n/an/a10.1029/2023SW003809An Empirical Model of the Occurrence Rate of Low Latitude Post‐Sunset Plasma Irregularities Derived From CHAMP and Swarm Magnetic ObservationsC. Stolle0T. A. Siddiqui1L. Schreiter2S. K. Das3I. Rusch4M. Rother5E. Doornbos6Leibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Rostock Kühlungsborn GermanyLeibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Rostock Kühlungsborn GermanyInstitute of Geodesy Technical University of Berlin Berlin GermanyLeibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Rostock Kühlungsborn GermanyLeibniz Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Rostock Kühlungsborn GermanyGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Helmholtz Centre Potsdam Potsdam GermanyRoyal Netherlands Meteorological Institute—KNMI De Bilt The NetherlandsAbstract The prediction of post‐sunset equatorial plasma depletions (EPDs), often called ionospheric plasma bubbles, has remained a challenge for decades. In this study, we introduce the Ionospheric Bubble Probability (IBP) model, an empirical model to predict the occurrence probability of EPDs derived from 9 years of CHAMP and 9 years of Swarm magnetic field measurements. The model predicts the occurrence probability of EPDs for a given longitude, day of year, local time and solar activity, for the altitude range of about 350–510 km, and low geographic latitudes of ±45°. IBP has been found to successfully reconstruct the distribution of EPDs as reported in previous studies from independent data. IBP has been further evaluated using 1‐year of untrained data of the Ionospheric Bubble Index (IBI). IBI is a Level 2 product of the Swarm satellite mission used for EPD identification. The relative operating characteristics (ROC) curve shows positive excursion above the no‐skill line with Hanssen and Kuiper's Discriminant (H&KSS) score of 0.52, 0.51, and 0.55 at threshold model output of 0.16 for Swarm A, B, and C satellites. Additionally, the reliability plots show proximity to the diagonal line with a decent Brier Skill Score (BSS) of 0.249, 0.210, and 0.267 for Swarm A, B, and C respectively at 15% climatological occurrence rate. These tests indicate that the model performs significantly better than a no‐skill forecast. The IBP model offers compelling glimpses into the future of EPD forecasting, thus demonstrating its potential to reliably predict EPD occurrences. The IBP model is publicly available.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003809 |
| spellingShingle | C. Stolle T. A. Siddiqui L. Schreiter S. K. Das I. Rusch M. Rother E. Doornbos An Empirical Model of the Occurrence Rate of Low Latitude Post‐Sunset Plasma Irregularities Derived From CHAMP and Swarm Magnetic Observations Space Weather |
| title | An Empirical Model of the Occurrence Rate of Low Latitude Post‐Sunset Plasma Irregularities Derived From CHAMP and Swarm Magnetic Observations |
| title_full | An Empirical Model of the Occurrence Rate of Low Latitude Post‐Sunset Plasma Irregularities Derived From CHAMP and Swarm Magnetic Observations |
| title_fullStr | An Empirical Model of the Occurrence Rate of Low Latitude Post‐Sunset Plasma Irregularities Derived From CHAMP and Swarm Magnetic Observations |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Empirical Model of the Occurrence Rate of Low Latitude Post‐Sunset Plasma Irregularities Derived From CHAMP and Swarm Magnetic Observations |
| title_short | An Empirical Model of the Occurrence Rate of Low Latitude Post‐Sunset Plasma Irregularities Derived From CHAMP and Swarm Magnetic Observations |
| title_sort | empirical model of the occurrence rate of low latitude post sunset plasma irregularities derived from champ and swarm magnetic observations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003809 |
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