Forecasting sea level rise using enhanced deep learning models

Climate change has significantly impacted vulnerable communities globally, with rising temperatures caused by greenhouse gas emissions accelerating global Sea Level Rise (SLR), threatening coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. This study evaluates statistical and deep learning models, including the...

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Main Authors: M. Sami Zitouni, Leena Elneel, Naseeb Assad Albakri, Mohammed Q. Alkhatib, Hussain Al-Ahmad
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2025-06-01
Series:Frontiers in Environmental Science
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Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1552834/full
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author M. Sami Zitouni
Leena Elneel
Naseeb Assad Albakri
Mohammed Q. Alkhatib
Hussain Al-Ahmad
author_facet M. Sami Zitouni
Leena Elneel
Naseeb Assad Albakri
Mohammed Q. Alkhatib
Hussain Al-Ahmad
author_sort M. Sami Zitouni
collection DOAJ
description Climate change has significantly impacted vulnerable communities globally, with rising temperatures caused by greenhouse gas emissions accelerating global Sea Level Rise (SLR), threatening coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. This study evaluates statistical and deep learning models, including the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, for predicting SLR and visualizing potentially inundated areas in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) via an interactive web interface. Historical mean sea level (MSL) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), spanning 1992 to 2024, were used for training and model evaluation. An interactive web platform was developed to visualize forecasted inundation areas and support decision-making. The enhanced LSTM model, integrated with a Squeeze-and-Excitation (SE) block, achieved the highest accuracy, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.27, representing an improvement of 8.81% over the standalone LSTM (RMSE 2.47) and 13.66% over ARIMA (RMSE 2.58). The model forecasts sea level changes up to 2100, highlighting critical risks for low-lying coastal regions such as Umm Al Quwain, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai. The findings underscore the value of advanced AI-driven forecasting in enhancing climate resilience, assisting policymakers and urban planners in risk assessment, optimizing emergency response strategies, and implementing coastal adaptation measures. Future work should integrate additional environmental factors influencing MSL.
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spelling doaj-art-546dc2cbae874fdd985dab68a23f27532025-08-20T03:25:26ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Environmental Science2296-665X2025-06-011310.3389/fenvs.2025.15528341552834Forecasting sea level rise using enhanced deep learning modelsM. Sami ZitouniLeena ElneelNaseeb Assad AlbakriMohammed Q. AlkhatibHussain Al-AhmadClimate change has significantly impacted vulnerable communities globally, with rising temperatures caused by greenhouse gas emissions accelerating global Sea Level Rise (SLR), threatening coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. This study evaluates statistical and deep learning models, including the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, for predicting SLR and visualizing potentially inundated areas in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) via an interactive web interface. Historical mean sea level (MSL) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), spanning 1992 to 2024, were used for training and model evaluation. An interactive web platform was developed to visualize forecasted inundation areas and support decision-making. The enhanced LSTM model, integrated with a Squeeze-and-Excitation (SE) block, achieved the highest accuracy, with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.27, representing an improvement of 8.81% over the standalone LSTM (RMSE 2.47) and 13.66% over ARIMA (RMSE 2.58). The model forecasts sea level changes up to 2100, highlighting critical risks for low-lying coastal regions such as Umm Al Quwain, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai. The findings underscore the value of advanced AI-driven forecasting in enhancing climate resilience, assisting policymakers and urban planners in risk assessment, optimizing emergency response strategies, and implementing coastal adaptation measures. Future work should integrate additional environmental factors influencing MSL.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1552834/fullsea level riseLSTMARIMAattention networksvisualization
spellingShingle M. Sami Zitouni
Leena Elneel
Naseeb Assad Albakri
Mohammed Q. Alkhatib
Hussain Al-Ahmad
Forecasting sea level rise using enhanced deep learning models
Frontiers in Environmental Science
sea level rise
LSTM
ARIMA
attention networks
visualization
title Forecasting sea level rise using enhanced deep learning models
title_full Forecasting sea level rise using enhanced deep learning models
title_fullStr Forecasting sea level rise using enhanced deep learning models
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting sea level rise using enhanced deep learning models
title_short Forecasting sea level rise using enhanced deep learning models
title_sort forecasting sea level rise using enhanced deep learning models
topic sea level rise
LSTM
ARIMA
attention networks
visualization
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1552834/full
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AT leenaelneel forecastingsealevelriseusingenhanceddeeplearningmodels
AT naseebassadalbakri forecastingsealevelriseusingenhanceddeeplearningmodels
AT mohammedqalkhatib forecastingsealevelriseusingenhanceddeeplearningmodels
AT hussainalahmad forecastingsealevelriseusingenhanceddeeplearningmodels