Comparison of HIV self-test distribution modalities to reduce HIV transmission and burden in western Kenya: a mathematical modelling study
Objectives To compare the impact of different HIV self-testing (HIVST) distribution modalities on population-level HIV outcomes.Design Mathematical modelling study.Setting Six counties in western Kenya.Methods We projected population-level HIV outcomes among individuals aged 15+over 30 years (2022–2...
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BMJ Publishing Group
2025-07-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open |
| Online Access: | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/15/7/e102999.full |
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| author | Cheryl Johnson Hae-Young Kim Elvin H Geng Anna Bershteyn Ingrid Eshun‐Wilson Daniel Bridenbecker Christine Kisia Jonah Onentiah Magare |
| author_facet | Cheryl Johnson Hae-Young Kim Elvin H Geng Anna Bershteyn Ingrid Eshun‐Wilson Daniel Bridenbecker Christine Kisia Jonah Onentiah Magare |
| author_sort | Cheryl Johnson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives To compare the impact of different HIV self-testing (HIVST) distribution modalities on population-level HIV outcomes.Design Mathematical modelling study.Setting Six counties in western Kenya.Methods We projected population-level HIV outcomes among individuals aged 15+over 30 years (2022–2052) using EMOD-HIV, an agent-based network transmission model calibrated to the HIV epidemic in western Kenya. We simulated the impact of three HIVST distribution modalities: (1) secondary distribution to male partners via women who attend antenatal care visits (‘ANC’); (2) secondary distribution to partners of individuals newly diagnosed with HIV at health facilities (‘partner services’); and (3) distribution to any individuals attending outpatient clinics (‘outpatient’). We informed our model assumptions on HIV testing uptake for each HIVST distribution modality using the estimates from a meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials published between 2006 and 2019 and compared the outcomes for each HIVST distribution modality to standard testing without HIVST.Outcomes measures The number of HIV tests performed (HIVST and non-HIVST), HIV diagnoses, HIV infections, and HIV-related deaths.Results With standard testing alone, the average number of HIV tests was 4.69 million per year, amounting to 81.0 tests per 100 adults. The average number of tests per year increased by 2.9% with ANC, 0.6% with partner services, and 23.7% with outpatient distribution of HIVST. Compared with standard testing alone, partner services with HIVST will avert the largest number of new HIV infections (10.2%, 95% CI 9.9% to 10.5%), followed by outpatient distribution (8.5%, 95% CI 8.2% to 8.7%) and ANC (6.1%, 95% CI 5.8% to 6.3%). Compared with standard testing, the number of HIVST needed per one additional HIV infection averted was 216 with ANC, 17 with partner services and 2009 with outpatient, while the number of HIVST per one additional HIV-related death averted was 364 with ANC, 17 with partner services and 3851 with outpatient.Conclusions Secondary distribution of HIVST to partners of individuals newly diagnosed with HIV could prevent the most HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. HIVST can be an important strategy to improve uptake of testing and long-term population-level health effects. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5444ed44546d4067b6fbfe58220f3d7e |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-5444ed44546d4067b6fbfe58220f3d7e2025-08-20T03:07:11ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552025-07-0115710.1136/bmjopen-2025-102999Comparison of HIV self-test distribution modalities to reduce HIV transmission and burden in western Kenya: a mathematical modelling studyCheryl Johnson0Hae-Young Kim1Elvin H Geng2Anna Bershteyn3Ingrid Eshun‐Wilson4Daniel Bridenbecker5Christine Kisia6Jonah Onentiah Magare74 World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland1 New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York City, New York, USA2 Washington University in St Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, USA1 New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York City, New York, USA2 Washington University in St Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, USA3 Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, USA5 World Health Organization, Nairobi, Kenya6 National AIDS and STIs Control Program (NASCOP), Nairobi, KenyaObjectives To compare the impact of different HIV self-testing (HIVST) distribution modalities on population-level HIV outcomes.Design Mathematical modelling study.Setting Six counties in western Kenya.Methods We projected population-level HIV outcomes among individuals aged 15+over 30 years (2022–2052) using EMOD-HIV, an agent-based network transmission model calibrated to the HIV epidemic in western Kenya. We simulated the impact of three HIVST distribution modalities: (1) secondary distribution to male partners via women who attend antenatal care visits (‘ANC’); (2) secondary distribution to partners of individuals newly diagnosed with HIV at health facilities (‘partner services’); and (3) distribution to any individuals attending outpatient clinics (‘outpatient’). We informed our model assumptions on HIV testing uptake for each HIVST distribution modality using the estimates from a meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials published between 2006 and 2019 and compared the outcomes for each HIVST distribution modality to standard testing without HIVST.Outcomes measures The number of HIV tests performed (HIVST and non-HIVST), HIV diagnoses, HIV infections, and HIV-related deaths.Results With standard testing alone, the average number of HIV tests was 4.69 million per year, amounting to 81.0 tests per 100 adults. The average number of tests per year increased by 2.9% with ANC, 0.6% with partner services, and 23.7% with outpatient distribution of HIVST. Compared with standard testing alone, partner services with HIVST will avert the largest number of new HIV infections (10.2%, 95% CI 9.9% to 10.5%), followed by outpatient distribution (8.5%, 95% CI 8.2% to 8.7%) and ANC (6.1%, 95% CI 5.8% to 6.3%). Compared with standard testing, the number of HIVST needed per one additional HIV infection averted was 216 with ANC, 17 with partner services and 2009 with outpatient, while the number of HIVST per one additional HIV-related death averted was 364 with ANC, 17 with partner services and 3851 with outpatient.Conclusions Secondary distribution of HIVST to partners of individuals newly diagnosed with HIV could prevent the most HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. HIVST can be an important strategy to improve uptake of testing and long-term population-level health effects.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/15/7/e102999.full |
| spellingShingle | Cheryl Johnson Hae-Young Kim Elvin H Geng Anna Bershteyn Ingrid Eshun‐Wilson Daniel Bridenbecker Christine Kisia Jonah Onentiah Magare Comparison of HIV self-test distribution modalities to reduce HIV transmission and burden in western Kenya: a mathematical modelling study BMJ Open |
| title | Comparison of HIV self-test distribution modalities to reduce HIV transmission and burden in western Kenya: a mathematical modelling study |
| title_full | Comparison of HIV self-test distribution modalities to reduce HIV transmission and burden in western Kenya: a mathematical modelling study |
| title_fullStr | Comparison of HIV self-test distribution modalities to reduce HIV transmission and burden in western Kenya: a mathematical modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparison of HIV self-test distribution modalities to reduce HIV transmission and burden in western Kenya: a mathematical modelling study |
| title_short | Comparison of HIV self-test distribution modalities to reduce HIV transmission and burden in western Kenya: a mathematical modelling study |
| title_sort | comparison of hiv self test distribution modalities to reduce hiv transmission and burden in western kenya a mathematical modelling study |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/15/7/e102999.full |
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