Changes in the frequency and persistence of the Vangengeim-Girs macro-circulation forms in the period 1979–2023
The significantly faster increase in Arctic temperature compared to the global average is causing changes in wind patterns in the mid-latitudes of the upper troposphere. Studies suggest possible changes in the geometry of wind fields, evident in the waviness of geopotential lines or in a series of...
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Lodz University Press
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Geographica Physica |
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| Online Access: | https://czasopisma.uni.lodz.pl/geophysica/article/view/23726 |
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| author | Jan Degirmendžić |
| author_facet | Jan Degirmendžić |
| author_sort | Jan Degirmendžić |
| collection | DOAJ |
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The significantly faster increase in Arctic temperature compared to the global average is causing changes in wind patterns in the mid-latitudes of the upper troposphere. Studies suggest possible changes in the geometry of wind fields, evident in the waviness of geopotential lines or in a series of discrete circulation patterns. This study aligns with the latter research focus. The objective of the analysis is to estimate long-term trends in the Vangengeim-Girs (V-G) macroforms from 1979 to 2023, and since 1999, which is considered a breaking point in the course of Arctic warming.
Trend coefficients were estimated for the 45-year period and in moving 21-year window for characteristics describing V-G forms variability. The results indicate a nonlinear trend in the annual frequency of W and E forms, the number of E episodes, and the duration of C and W episodes. Other parameters maintained a consistent direction of change (+/−) throughout the study period: frequency of C(+), number of W(+), C(+), WEC(+) episodes, duration of WEC(−) and E(−).
Processes indicating an increase in meridionality include the decline in W frequency after 2005, the rise in E frequency after 2003, the increase in C frequency and the number of C episodes from 1979 to 2023, and the rise in the number of E episodes along with a significant decline in W episode duration after 1999.
Additionally, significant trends in the increase (decrease) in the number (duration) of all episodes suggest an increase in day-to-day circulation variability.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-53d27a0412484b1aa0a4ca9e6ce0ef10 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1427-9711 2353-6063 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Lodz University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Geographica Physica |
| spelling | doaj-art-53d27a0412484b1aa0a4ca9e6ce0ef102025-08-20T02:26:32ZengLodz University PressActa Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Geographica Physica1427-97112353-60632024-12-012310.18778/1427-9711.23.03Changes in the frequency and persistence of the Vangengeim-Girs macro-circulation forms in the period 1979–2023Jan Degirmendžić0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9022-5822University of Lodz, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Department of Physical Geography The significantly faster increase in Arctic temperature compared to the global average is causing changes in wind patterns in the mid-latitudes of the upper troposphere. Studies suggest possible changes in the geometry of wind fields, evident in the waviness of geopotential lines or in a series of discrete circulation patterns. This study aligns with the latter research focus. The objective of the analysis is to estimate long-term trends in the Vangengeim-Girs (V-G) macroforms from 1979 to 2023, and since 1999, which is considered a breaking point in the course of Arctic warming. Trend coefficients were estimated for the 45-year period and in moving 21-year window for characteristics describing V-G forms variability. The results indicate a nonlinear trend in the annual frequency of W and E forms, the number of E episodes, and the duration of C and W episodes. Other parameters maintained a consistent direction of change (+/−) throughout the study period: frequency of C(+), number of W(+), C(+), WEC(+) episodes, duration of WEC(−) and E(−). Processes indicating an increase in meridionality include the decline in W frequency after 2005, the rise in E frequency after 2003, the increase in C frequency and the number of C episodes from 1979 to 2023, and the rise in the number of E episodes along with a significant decline in W episode duration after 1999. Additionally, significant trends in the increase (decrease) in the number (duration) of all episodes suggest an increase in day-to-day circulation variability. https://czasopisma.uni.lodz.pl/geophysica/article/view/23726Vangengeim-Girs macro-circulation formscirculation episodeslong-term trendsArctic amplification |
| spellingShingle | Jan Degirmendžić Changes in the frequency and persistence of the Vangengeim-Girs macro-circulation forms in the period 1979–2023 Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Geographica Physica Vangengeim-Girs macro-circulation forms circulation episodes long-term trends Arctic amplification |
| title | Changes in the frequency and persistence of the Vangengeim-Girs macro-circulation forms in the period 1979–2023 |
| title_full | Changes in the frequency and persistence of the Vangengeim-Girs macro-circulation forms in the period 1979–2023 |
| title_fullStr | Changes in the frequency and persistence of the Vangengeim-Girs macro-circulation forms in the period 1979–2023 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in the frequency and persistence of the Vangengeim-Girs macro-circulation forms in the period 1979–2023 |
| title_short | Changes in the frequency and persistence of the Vangengeim-Girs macro-circulation forms in the period 1979–2023 |
| title_sort | changes in the frequency and persistence of the vangengeim girs macro circulation forms in the period 1979 2023 |
| topic | Vangengeim-Girs macro-circulation forms circulation episodes long-term trends Arctic amplification |
| url | https://czasopisma.uni.lodz.pl/geophysica/article/view/23726 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jandegirmendzic changesinthefrequencyandpersistenceofthevangengeimgirsmacrocirculationformsintheperiod19792023 |