Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region
Challenges in developing climate adaptation strategies arise from the uncertainty and fragmentation of climate change knowledge, as well as the involvement of many actors with varying values and interests. This study, using a system perspective approach, conducted through a case study in Sardinia, I...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Farming System |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949911925000176 |
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| author | Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen Salvatore Gonario Pasquale Virdis |
| author_facet | Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen Salvatore Gonario Pasquale Virdis |
| author_sort | Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Challenges in developing climate adaptation strategies arise from the uncertainty and fragmentation of climate change knowledge, as well as the involvement of many actors with varying values and interests. This study, using a system perspective approach, conducted through a case study in Sardinia, Italy—a prominent Mediterranean region—focused on four agricultural systems: (1) intensive dairy cattle, (2) extensive dairy sheep, (3) horticulture, and (4) rice. The aim was to examine past, present, and future climate changes, the evolution of these agricultural systems, climate impacts, and response behaviors. The findings reveal the annual mean daily maximum (TXmCF = +0.13 °C/decade and TXmSL = +0.27 °C/decade) and are expected to continue rising both intermediate (TNm45=+1.60°C) and business-as-usual scenarios (TNm85=+2.43°C) with a rate of +0.17°C/decade and +0.26°C/decade respectively, along with the frequency of hot days and heatwaves. The four agricultural systems have evolved differently in response to socio-environmental changes. Farmers perceived climate variability and its impacts on their systems in varied ways, leading to different responses to future climate. Intensive farming systems were found to have more future adaptation perspectives to climate variability than traditional extensive systems, due to differences in socio-cultural and technological contexts. This highlights the need to strengthen farmers' adaptive capacities in managing traditional systems, along with their biodiversity and cultural knowledge, to help preserve globally significant agricultural heritage. The research also revealed the importance of collective adaptation responses at multiple levels that could be translated into policies and practices to enhance adaptive capacities of agricultural systems. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-53b91c22845e422684621a95cda4d702 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2949-9119 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Farming System |
| spelling | doaj-art-53b91c22845e422684621a95cda4d7022025-08-20T02:08:02ZengElsevierFarming System2949-91192025-07-013310015310.1016/j.farsys.2025.100153Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean regionThi Phuoc Lai Nguyen0Salvatore Gonario Pasquale Virdis1Department of Development and Sustainability, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand; Corresponding author.Department of Information and Communication Technology, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, ThailandChallenges in developing climate adaptation strategies arise from the uncertainty and fragmentation of climate change knowledge, as well as the involvement of many actors with varying values and interests. This study, using a system perspective approach, conducted through a case study in Sardinia, Italy—a prominent Mediterranean region—focused on four agricultural systems: (1) intensive dairy cattle, (2) extensive dairy sheep, (3) horticulture, and (4) rice. The aim was to examine past, present, and future climate changes, the evolution of these agricultural systems, climate impacts, and response behaviors. The findings reveal the annual mean daily maximum (TXmCF = +0.13 °C/decade and TXmSL = +0.27 °C/decade) and are expected to continue rising both intermediate (TNm45=+1.60°C) and business-as-usual scenarios (TNm85=+2.43°C) with a rate of +0.17°C/decade and +0.26°C/decade respectively, along with the frequency of hot days and heatwaves. The four agricultural systems have evolved differently in response to socio-environmental changes. Farmers perceived climate variability and its impacts on their systems in varied ways, leading to different responses to future climate. Intensive farming systems were found to have more future adaptation perspectives to climate variability than traditional extensive systems, due to differences in socio-cultural and technological contexts. This highlights the need to strengthen farmers' adaptive capacities in managing traditional systems, along with their biodiversity and cultural knowledge, to help preserve globally significant agricultural heritage. The research also revealed the importance of collective adaptation responses at multiple levels that could be translated into policies and practices to enhance adaptive capacities of agricultural systems.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949911925000176Systems perspectivePresent and future climateClimate impactsFarmers' experienceFarmers' behavioursCollective responses |
| spellingShingle | Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen Salvatore Gonario Pasquale Virdis Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region Farming System Systems perspective Present and future climate Climate impacts Farmers' experience Farmers' behaviours Collective responses |
| title | Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region |
| title_full | Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region |
| title_fullStr | Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region |
| title_short | Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region |
| title_sort | climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in mediterranean region |
| topic | Systems perspective Present and future climate Climate impacts Farmers' experience Farmers' behaviours Collective responses |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949911925000176 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT thiphuoclainguyen climatevariabilityandfutureresponsesofagriculturalsystemsinmediterraneanregion AT salvatoregonariopasqualevirdis climatevariabilityandfutureresponsesofagriculturalsystemsinmediterraneanregion |