Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region

Challenges in developing climate adaptation strategies arise from the uncertainty and fragmentation of climate change knowledge, as well as the involvement of many actors with varying values and interests. This study, using a system perspective approach, conducted through a case study in Sardinia, I...

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Main Authors: Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen, Salvatore Gonario Pasquale Virdis
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-07-01
Series:Farming System
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949911925000176
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author Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen
Salvatore Gonario Pasquale Virdis
author_facet Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen
Salvatore Gonario Pasquale Virdis
author_sort Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen
collection DOAJ
description Challenges in developing climate adaptation strategies arise from the uncertainty and fragmentation of climate change knowledge, as well as the involvement of many actors with varying values and interests. This study, using a system perspective approach, conducted through a case study in Sardinia, Italy—a prominent Mediterranean region—focused on four agricultural systems: (1) intensive dairy cattle, (2) extensive dairy sheep, (3) horticulture, and (4) rice. The aim was to examine past, present, and future climate changes, the evolution of these agricultural systems, climate impacts, and response behaviors. The findings reveal the annual mean daily maximum (TXmCF ​= ​+0.13 ​°C/decade and TXmSL ​= ​+0.27 ​°C/decade) and are expected to continue rising both intermediate (TNm45=+1.60°C) and business-as-usual scenarios (TNm85=+2.43°C) with a rate of +0.17°C/decade and +0.26°C/decade respectively, along with the frequency of hot days and heatwaves. The four agricultural systems have evolved differently in response to socio-environmental changes. Farmers perceived climate variability and its impacts on their systems in varied ways, leading to different responses to future climate. Intensive farming systems were found to have more future adaptation perspectives to climate variability than traditional extensive systems, due to differences in socio-cultural and technological contexts. This highlights the need to strengthen farmers' adaptive capacities in managing traditional systems, along with their biodiversity and cultural knowledge, to help preserve globally significant agricultural heritage. The research also revealed the importance of collective adaptation responses at multiple levels that could be translated into policies and practices to enhance adaptive capacities of agricultural systems.
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spelling doaj-art-53b91c22845e422684621a95cda4d7022025-08-20T02:08:02ZengElsevierFarming System2949-91192025-07-013310015310.1016/j.farsys.2025.100153Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean regionThi Phuoc Lai Nguyen0Salvatore Gonario Pasquale Virdis1Department of Development and Sustainability, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand; Corresponding author.Department of Information and Communication Technology, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, ThailandChallenges in developing climate adaptation strategies arise from the uncertainty and fragmentation of climate change knowledge, as well as the involvement of many actors with varying values and interests. This study, using a system perspective approach, conducted through a case study in Sardinia, Italy—a prominent Mediterranean region—focused on four agricultural systems: (1) intensive dairy cattle, (2) extensive dairy sheep, (3) horticulture, and (4) rice. The aim was to examine past, present, and future climate changes, the evolution of these agricultural systems, climate impacts, and response behaviors. The findings reveal the annual mean daily maximum (TXmCF ​= ​+0.13 ​°C/decade and TXmSL ​= ​+0.27 ​°C/decade) and are expected to continue rising both intermediate (TNm45=+1.60°C) and business-as-usual scenarios (TNm85=+2.43°C) with a rate of +0.17°C/decade and +0.26°C/decade respectively, along with the frequency of hot days and heatwaves. The four agricultural systems have evolved differently in response to socio-environmental changes. Farmers perceived climate variability and its impacts on their systems in varied ways, leading to different responses to future climate. Intensive farming systems were found to have more future adaptation perspectives to climate variability than traditional extensive systems, due to differences in socio-cultural and technological contexts. This highlights the need to strengthen farmers' adaptive capacities in managing traditional systems, along with their biodiversity and cultural knowledge, to help preserve globally significant agricultural heritage. The research also revealed the importance of collective adaptation responses at multiple levels that could be translated into policies and practices to enhance adaptive capacities of agricultural systems.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949911925000176Systems perspectivePresent and future climateClimate impactsFarmers' experienceFarmers' behavioursCollective responses
spellingShingle Thi Phuoc Lai Nguyen
Salvatore Gonario Pasquale Virdis
Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region
Farming System
Systems perspective
Present and future climate
Climate impacts
Farmers' experience
Farmers' behaviours
Collective responses
title Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region
title_full Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region
title_fullStr Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region
title_full_unstemmed Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region
title_short Climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in Mediterranean region
title_sort climate variability and future responses of agricultural systems in mediterranean region
topic Systems perspective
Present and future climate
Climate impacts
Farmers' experience
Farmers' behaviours
Collective responses
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949911925000176
work_keys_str_mv AT thiphuoclainguyen climatevariabilityandfutureresponsesofagriculturalsystemsinmediterraneanregion
AT salvatoregonariopasqualevirdis climatevariabilityandfutureresponsesofagriculturalsystemsinmediterraneanregion