Long-Term Prognostic Value of AFP and PIVKA-II in HCC After Living Donor Liver Transplantation: A Single-Center Retrospective Study
Despite the development of numerous prognostic models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence and mortality after liver transplantation, tumor biomarkers such as alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II (PIVKA-II) remain widely used in clinical practice. This study e...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Transplant International |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontierspartnerships.org/articles/10.3389/ti.2025.14748/full |
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| Summary: | Despite the development of numerous prognostic models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence and mortality after liver transplantation, tumor biomarkers such as alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II (PIVKA-II) remain widely used in clinical practice. This study evaluated the performance of AFP and PIVKA-II compared with six prognostic models (RETREAT, SNAPP, MoRAL, R3-AFP, METROTICKET 2.0, and SALT) in a retrospective cohort of 707 adults who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) for HCC between 2003 and 2018. Patients were stratified into Milan and Beyond Milan groups. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was conducted using integrated area under the curve (iAUC) and concordance index (C-index) to assess recurrence and mortality. AFP and PIVKA-II (continuous) achieved iAUCs of 0.68–0.75 for recurrence and C-indices of 0.66–0.77 for mortality. Their combination reached iAUCs up to 0.78 and C-indices up to 0.80. Threshold models (AFP ≥200, PIVKA-II ≥400) showed modest predictive performance. Among multivariable models, R3-AFP demonstrated the most consistent performance (iAUC 0.76–0.81; C-index 0.78–0.82). SNAPP, MoRAL, and SALT also performed well. AFP and PIVKA-II may offer practical utility in resource-limited settings. However, multivariable models remain the preferred approach where comprehensive diagnostics are available. |
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| ISSN: | 1432-2277 |