Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful?
Abstract The radius of maximum wind (RMW) defines the location of the maximum winds in a tropical cyclone and is critical to understanding intensity change as well as hazard impacts. A comparison between the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) models and two statistical models based off th...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2024-06-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109663 |
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| author | Benjamin C. Trabing Andrew B. Penny Jonathan Martinez Cody Fritz |
| author_facet | Benjamin C. Trabing Andrew B. Penny Jonathan Martinez Cody Fritz |
| author_sort | Benjamin C. Trabing |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The radius of maximum wind (RMW) defines the location of the maximum winds in a tropical cyclone and is critical to understanding intensity change as well as hazard impacts. A comparison between the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) models and two statistical models based off the National Hurricane Center official forecast is conducted relative to a new baseline climatology to better understand whether models have skill in forecasting the RMW of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. On average, the HAFS models are less skillful than the climatology and persistence baseline and two statistically derived RMW estimates. The performance of the HAFS models is dependent on intensity with better skill for stronger tropical cyclones compared to weaker tropical cyclones. To further improve guidance of tropical cyclone hazards, more work needs to be done to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone structure. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-52c69790b80e45cf9bdcc698da1db5a1 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-52c69790b80e45cf9bdcc698da1db5a12025-08-20T03:10:21ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-06-015112n/an/a10.1029/2024GL109663Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful?Benjamin C. Trabing0Andrew B. Penny1Jonathan Martinez2Cody Fritz3CPAESS/UCAR Boulder CO USACPAESS/UCAR Boulder CO USANOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center Miami FL USANOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center Miami FL USAAbstract The radius of maximum wind (RMW) defines the location of the maximum winds in a tropical cyclone and is critical to understanding intensity change as well as hazard impacts. A comparison between the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) models and two statistical models based off the National Hurricane Center official forecast is conducted relative to a new baseline climatology to better understand whether models have skill in forecasting the RMW of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. On average, the HAFS models are less skillful than the climatology and persistence baseline and two statistically derived RMW estimates. The performance of the HAFS models is dependent on intensity with better skill for stronger tropical cyclones compared to weaker tropical cyclones. To further improve guidance of tropical cyclone hazards, more work needs to be done to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone structure.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109663tropical cycloneradius of maximum windsHAFSnumerical weather prediction models |
| spellingShingle | Benjamin C. Trabing Andrew B. Penny Jonathan Martinez Cody Fritz Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful? Geophysical Research Letters tropical cyclone radius of maximum winds HAFS numerical weather prediction models |
| title | Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful? |
| title_full | Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful? |
| title_fullStr | Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful? |
| title_short | Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful? |
| title_sort | are forecasts of the tropical cyclone radius of maximum wind skillful |
| topic | tropical cyclone radius of maximum winds HAFS numerical weather prediction models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109663 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT benjaminctrabing areforecastsofthetropicalcycloneradiusofmaximumwindskillful AT andrewbpenny areforecastsofthetropicalcycloneradiusofmaximumwindskillful AT jonathanmartinez areforecastsofthetropicalcycloneradiusofmaximumwindskillful AT codyfritz areforecastsofthetropicalcycloneradiusofmaximumwindskillful |