Effects of population aging on quality of life and disease burden: a population-based study
Abstract Background As population aging intensifies, it becomes increasingly important to elucidate the casual relationship between aging and changes in population health. Therefore, our study proposed to develop a systematic attribution framework to comprehensively evaluate the health impacts of po...
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BMC
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Global Health Research and Policy |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s41256-024-00393-8 |
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| author | Jun-Yan Xi Bo-Heng Liang Wang-Jian Zhang Bo Yan Hang Dong Yuan-Yuan Chen Xiao Lin Jing Gu Yuan-Tao Hao |
| author_facet | Jun-Yan Xi Bo-Heng Liang Wang-Jian Zhang Bo Yan Hang Dong Yuan-Yuan Chen Xiao Lin Jing Gu Yuan-Tao Hao |
| author_sort | Jun-Yan Xi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background As population aging intensifies, it becomes increasingly important to elucidate the casual relationship between aging and changes in population health. Therefore, our study proposed to develop a systematic attribution framework to comprehensively evaluate the health impacts of population aging. Methods We used health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) to measure quality of life and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) to quantify the burden of disease for the population of Guangzhou. The HALE and DALY projections were generated using both the Bayesian age-period-cohort models and the population prediction models. Changes in HALE and DALY between 2010–2020 and 2020–2030 were decomposed to isolate the effects of population aging. Three scenarios were analyzed to examine the relative relationship between disease burden and population aging. In Scenarios 1 and 2, the disease burden rates in 2030 were assumed to either remain at 2020 levels or follow historical trends. In Scenario 3, it was assumed that the absolute numbers of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) in 2030 would remain unchanged from the 2020 levels. Results Between 2010 and 2020, 56.24% [69.73%] of the increase in male [female, values in brackets] HALE was attributable to the mortality effects in the population aged 60 and over, while − 3.74% [− 9.29%] was attributable to the disability effects. The increase in DALY caused by changes in age structure accounted for 72.01% [46.68%] of the total increase in DALY. From 2020 to 2030, 61.43% [69.05%] of the increase in HALE is projected to result from the mortality effects in the population aged 60 and over, while − 3.88% [4.73%] will be attributable to the disability effects. The increase in DALY due to changes in age structure is expected to account for 102.93% [100.99%] of the total increase in DALY. In Scenario 1, YLL are projected to increase by 45.0% [54.7%], and YLD by 31.8% [33.8%], compared to 2020. In Scenario 2, YLL in 2030 is expected to decrease by − 2.9% [− 1.3%], while YLD will increase by 12.7% [14.7%] compared to 2020. In Scenario 3, the expected YLL rates and YLD rates in 2030 would need to be reduced by 15.3% [15.4%] and 15.4% [15.6%], respectively, compared to 2020. Conclusions The disability effects among the elderly population hinder improvements in quality of life, while changes in age structure are the primary driver of disease burden accumulation. To mitigate the excess disease burden caused by population aging, it is essential to achieve a reduction of more than 15% in the disease burden by 2030 compared to 2020. Our proposed attribution framework evaluates the health impacts of population aging across two dimensions: quality of life and disease burden. This framework enables comparisons of these effects over time and across different regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-526fd160dc8e470ead9820ad2375e2ed |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-0642 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
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| series | Global Health Research and Policy |
| spelling | doaj-art-526fd160dc8e470ead9820ad2375e2ed2025-01-19T12:07:52ZengBMCGlobal Health Research and Policy2397-06422025-01-0110111310.1186/s41256-024-00393-8Effects of population aging on quality of life and disease burden: a population-based studyJun-Yan Xi0Bo-Heng Liang1Wang-Jian Zhang2Bo Yan3Hang Dong4Yuan-Yuan Chen5Xiao Lin6Jing Gu7Yuan-Tao Hao8Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen UniversityDepartment of Chronic Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen UniversitySchool of Health Sciences, Guangzhou Xinhua UniversityDepartment of Chronic Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Chronic Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen UniversityDepartment of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen UniversityCenter for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness and Response, Peking University, Haidian DistrictAbstract Background As population aging intensifies, it becomes increasingly important to elucidate the casual relationship between aging and changes in population health. Therefore, our study proposed to develop a systematic attribution framework to comprehensively evaluate the health impacts of population aging. Methods We used health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) to measure quality of life and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) to quantify the burden of disease for the population of Guangzhou. The HALE and DALY projections were generated using both the Bayesian age-period-cohort models and the population prediction models. Changes in HALE and DALY between 2010–2020 and 2020–2030 were decomposed to isolate the effects of population aging. Three scenarios were analyzed to examine the relative relationship between disease burden and population aging. In Scenarios 1 and 2, the disease burden rates in 2030 were assumed to either remain at 2020 levels or follow historical trends. In Scenario 3, it was assumed that the absolute numbers of years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) in 2030 would remain unchanged from the 2020 levels. Results Between 2010 and 2020, 56.24% [69.73%] of the increase in male [female, values in brackets] HALE was attributable to the mortality effects in the population aged 60 and over, while − 3.74% [− 9.29%] was attributable to the disability effects. The increase in DALY caused by changes in age structure accounted for 72.01% [46.68%] of the total increase in DALY. From 2020 to 2030, 61.43% [69.05%] of the increase in HALE is projected to result from the mortality effects in the population aged 60 and over, while − 3.88% [4.73%] will be attributable to the disability effects. The increase in DALY due to changes in age structure is expected to account for 102.93% [100.99%] of the total increase in DALY. In Scenario 1, YLL are projected to increase by 45.0% [54.7%], and YLD by 31.8% [33.8%], compared to 2020. In Scenario 2, YLL in 2030 is expected to decrease by − 2.9% [− 1.3%], while YLD will increase by 12.7% [14.7%] compared to 2020. In Scenario 3, the expected YLL rates and YLD rates in 2030 would need to be reduced by 15.3% [15.4%] and 15.4% [15.6%], respectively, compared to 2020. Conclusions The disability effects among the elderly population hinder improvements in quality of life, while changes in age structure are the primary driver of disease burden accumulation. To mitigate the excess disease burden caused by population aging, it is essential to achieve a reduction of more than 15% in the disease burden by 2030 compared to 2020. Our proposed attribution framework evaluates the health impacts of population aging across two dimensions: quality of life and disease burden. This framework enables comparisons of these effects over time and across different regions.https://doi.org/10.1186/s41256-024-00393-8Attribution analysisBurden of diseaseDifferential decompositionPopulation agingPredictionQuality of life |
| spellingShingle | Jun-Yan Xi Bo-Heng Liang Wang-Jian Zhang Bo Yan Hang Dong Yuan-Yuan Chen Xiao Lin Jing Gu Yuan-Tao Hao Effects of population aging on quality of life and disease burden: a population-based study Global Health Research and Policy Attribution analysis Burden of disease Differential decomposition Population aging Prediction Quality of life |
| title | Effects of population aging on quality of life and disease burden: a population-based study |
| title_full | Effects of population aging on quality of life and disease burden: a population-based study |
| title_fullStr | Effects of population aging on quality of life and disease burden: a population-based study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of population aging on quality of life and disease burden: a population-based study |
| title_short | Effects of population aging on quality of life and disease burden: a population-based study |
| title_sort | effects of population aging on quality of life and disease burden a population based study |
| topic | Attribution analysis Burden of disease Differential decomposition Population aging Prediction Quality of life |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s41256-024-00393-8 |
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