A holistic stochastic model for precipitation events
Abstract In the western United States, much of the annual precipitation falls during relatively few storm events. When precipitation is measured as daily (or hourly, etc.) accumulations, these events appear as sequences of various durations. We describe a trivariate probability distribution and asse...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-77031-3 |
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| author | Alexander Weyant Alexander Gershunov Anna K. Panorska Tomasz J. Kozubowski Julie Kalansky |
| author_facet | Alexander Weyant Alexander Gershunov Anna K. Panorska Tomasz J. Kozubowski Julie Kalansky |
| author_sort | Alexander Weyant |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In the western United States, much of the annual precipitation falls during relatively few storm events. When precipitation is measured as daily (or hourly, etc.) accumulations, these events appear as sequences of various durations. We describe a trivariate probability distribution and assert that it provides a natural description for the durations, magnitudes, and maximum intensities of such events. We show that this distribution, in its most straightforward application, indeed describes precipitation events composed of daily observations at most long-term weather stations across the western United States, allowing for a flexible assessment of specific event probabilities and return periods with respect to their three defining components. This characterization opens the door to further understanding of risk associated with out-of-sample meteorological events. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-51b038a74d444e89a1bd524c87e33e26 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-51b038a74d444e89a1bd524c87e33e262025-02-09T12:29:30ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-02-0115111510.1038/s41598-024-77031-3A holistic stochastic model for precipitation eventsAlexander Weyant0Alexander Gershunov1Anna K. Panorska2Tomasz J. Kozubowski3Julie Kalansky4Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Climate, Atmospheric Sciences, and Physical Oceanography DivisionScripps Institution of Oceanography, Climate, Atmospheric Sciences, and Physical Oceanography DivisionDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of NevadaDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of NevadaScripps Institution of Oceanography, Climate, Atmospheric Sciences, and Physical Oceanography DivisionAbstract In the western United States, much of the annual precipitation falls during relatively few storm events. When precipitation is measured as daily (or hourly, etc.) accumulations, these events appear as sequences of various durations. We describe a trivariate probability distribution and assert that it provides a natural description for the durations, magnitudes, and maximum intensities of such events. We show that this distribution, in its most straightforward application, indeed describes precipitation events composed of daily observations at most long-term weather stations across the western United States, allowing for a flexible assessment of specific event probabilities and return periods with respect to their three defining components. This characterization opens the door to further understanding of risk associated with out-of-sample meteorological events.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-77031-3Extreme precipitationReturn periodsReturn intervalsPeaks-over-threshold |
| spellingShingle | Alexander Weyant Alexander Gershunov Anna K. Panorska Tomasz J. Kozubowski Julie Kalansky A holistic stochastic model for precipitation events Scientific Reports Extreme precipitation Return periods Return intervals Peaks-over-threshold |
| title | A holistic stochastic model for precipitation events |
| title_full | A holistic stochastic model for precipitation events |
| title_fullStr | A holistic stochastic model for precipitation events |
| title_full_unstemmed | A holistic stochastic model for precipitation events |
| title_short | A holistic stochastic model for precipitation events |
| title_sort | holistic stochastic model for precipitation events |
| topic | Extreme precipitation Return periods Return intervals Peaks-over-threshold |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-77031-3 |
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