Comparison of Forecasting Performance of ARIMA LSTM and HYBRID Models for The Sales Volume Budget of a Manufacturing Enterprise
This study aims to create a monthly sales quantity budget by making use of the previous income data of an enterprise operating within the construction sector, which is considered the locomotive of the economy. For estimating time-series of sales as a linear model ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Mo...
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| Language: | English |
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Istanbul University Press
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Istanbul Business Research |
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| Online Access: | https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/1538A115715044948E7A508C24D08BB4 |
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| _version_ | 1850206766245085184 |
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| author | Ayşe Soy Temür Şule Yıldız |
| author_facet | Ayşe Soy Temür Şule Yıldız |
| author_sort | Ayşe Soy Temür |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study aims to create a monthly sales quantity budget by making use of the previous income data of an enterprise operating within the construction sector, which is considered the locomotive of the economy. For estimating time-series of sales as a linear model ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average), as nonlinear model LSTM (Long ShortTerm Memory) and a HYBRID (LSTM and ARIMA) model built to improve system performance compared to a single model was used. As a result of the study, Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values obtained from each of the methods used in the application were compared, and a monthly sales volume budget was created for 2017 with all the methods used. When the MAPE and MSE values obtained from each of these methods were compared, the best performance was the Hybrid model that gave the lowest error, and in addition, the fact that all of the application models got very realistic results by using the historical data showed the success of the predictions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-516912eb91554112982ce2669733762f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2630-5488 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | Istanbul University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Istanbul Business Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-516912eb91554112982ce2669733762f2025-08-20T02:10:42ZengIstanbul University PressIstanbul Business Research2630-54882021-06-01501154610.26650/ibr.2021.51.0117123456Comparison of Forecasting Performance of ARIMA LSTM and HYBRID Models for The Sales Volume Budget of a Manufacturing EnterpriseAyşe Soy Temür0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4455-5035Şule Yıldız1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4630-0637Düzce Üniversitesi, Duzce, TurkiyeSakarya Üniversitesi, Sakarya, TürkiyeThis study aims to create a monthly sales quantity budget by making use of the previous income data of an enterprise operating within the construction sector, which is considered the locomotive of the economy. For estimating time-series of sales as a linear model ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average), as nonlinear model LSTM (Long ShortTerm Memory) and a HYBRID (LSTM and ARIMA) model built to improve system performance compared to a single model was used. As a result of the study, Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values obtained from each of the methods used in the application were compared, and a monthly sales volume budget was created for 2017 with all the methods used. When the MAPE and MSE values obtained from each of these methods were compared, the best performance was the Hybrid model that gave the lowest error, and in addition, the fact that all of the application models got very realistic results by using the historical data showed the success of the predictions.https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/1538A115715044948E7A508C24D08BB4sales budgettime series forecasthybrid modelarimalstm |
| spellingShingle | Ayşe Soy Temür Şule Yıldız Comparison of Forecasting Performance of ARIMA LSTM and HYBRID Models for The Sales Volume Budget of a Manufacturing Enterprise Istanbul Business Research sales budget time series forecast hybrid model arima lstm |
| title | Comparison of Forecasting Performance of ARIMA LSTM and HYBRID Models for The Sales Volume Budget of a Manufacturing Enterprise |
| title_full | Comparison of Forecasting Performance of ARIMA LSTM and HYBRID Models for The Sales Volume Budget of a Manufacturing Enterprise |
| title_fullStr | Comparison of Forecasting Performance of ARIMA LSTM and HYBRID Models for The Sales Volume Budget of a Manufacturing Enterprise |
| title_full_unstemmed | Comparison of Forecasting Performance of ARIMA LSTM and HYBRID Models for The Sales Volume Budget of a Manufacturing Enterprise |
| title_short | Comparison of Forecasting Performance of ARIMA LSTM and HYBRID Models for The Sales Volume Budget of a Manufacturing Enterprise |
| title_sort | comparison of forecasting performance of arima lstm and hybrid models for the sales volume budget of a manufacturing enterprise |
| topic | sales budget time series forecast hybrid model arima lstm |
| url | https://cdn.istanbul.edu.tr/file/JTA6CLJ8T5/1538A115715044948E7A508C24D08BB4 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT aysesoytemur comparisonofforecastingperformanceofarimalstmandhybridmodelsforthesalesvolumebudgetofamanufacturingenterprise AT suleyıldız comparisonofforecastingperformanceofarimalstmandhybridmodelsforthesalesvolumebudgetofamanufacturingenterprise |