Hysteresis Effects on Unemployment Rates: A Comparative Study of the Baltic States Before and After EU Accession

This study examines the hysteresis effects on unemployment rates in the Baltic countries using the RALS-LM unit root test method, based on monthly data from February 2000 to August 2024. It assesses the persistence of unemployment by gender, focusing on both female and male unemployment rates. Addi...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Tuna Köse
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Vilnius University Press 2025-05-01
Series:Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.journals.vu.lt/omee/article/view/38040
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850114114827845632
author Tuna Köse
author_facet Tuna Köse
author_sort Tuna Köse
collection DOAJ
description This study examines the hysteresis effects on unemployment rates in the Baltic countries using the RALS-LM unit root test method, based on monthly data from February 2000 to August 2024. It assesses the persistence of unemployment by gender, focusing on both female and male unemployment rates. Additionally, the study provides a detailed evaluation of the hysteresis effects observed on unemployment rates before and after the Baltic countries’ accession to the European Union (EU). The findings show that the unemployment rates in these countries are highly sensitive to long-term structural changes. Structural breaks occurred mainly between 2001 and 2003 before EU accession, while the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis and the European Debt Crisis shifted these breaks to the 2007–2010 period. Significant structural changes in total unemployment were observed in Estonia and Lithuania after their EU accession. The results indicate hysteresis effects in Estonia and Latvia, whereas Lithuania shows varying patterns of unemployment persistence. This study highlights the importance of understanding the long-term effects of structural changes and external shocks on labor market dynamics in the Baltic countries.
format Article
id doaj-art-50a7cb79d41e4588aa9f3172db761a2b
institution OA Journals
issn 2029-4581
2345-0037
language English
publishDate 2025-05-01
publisher Vilnius University Press
record_format Article
series Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies
spelling doaj-art-50a7cb79d41e4588aa9f3172db761a2b2025-08-20T02:36:59ZengVilnius University PressOrganizations and Markets in Emerging Economies2029-45812345-00372025-05-01161 (32)10.15388/omee.2025.16.4Hysteresis Effects on Unemployment Rates: A Comparative Study of the Baltic States Before and After EU AccessionTuna Köse0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8703-0215Independent Researcher This study examines the hysteresis effects on unemployment rates in the Baltic countries using the RALS-LM unit root test method, based on monthly data from February 2000 to August 2024. It assesses the persistence of unemployment by gender, focusing on both female and male unemployment rates. Additionally, the study provides a detailed evaluation of the hysteresis effects observed on unemployment rates before and after the Baltic countries’ accession to the European Union (EU). The findings show that the unemployment rates in these countries are highly sensitive to long-term structural changes. Structural breaks occurred mainly between 2001 and 2003 before EU accession, while the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis and the European Debt Crisis shifted these breaks to the 2007–2010 period. Significant structural changes in total unemployment were observed in Estonia and Lithuania after their EU accession. The results indicate hysteresis effects in Estonia and Latvia, whereas Lithuania shows varying patterns of unemployment persistence. This study highlights the importance of understanding the long-term effects of structural changes and external shocks on labor market dynamics in the Baltic countries. https://www.journals.vu.lt/omee/article/view/38040unemploymenthysteresisBaltic countriesRALS-LM
spellingShingle Tuna Köse
Hysteresis Effects on Unemployment Rates: A Comparative Study of the Baltic States Before and After EU Accession
Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies
unemployment
hysteresis
Baltic countries
RALS-LM
title Hysteresis Effects on Unemployment Rates: A Comparative Study of the Baltic States Before and After EU Accession
title_full Hysteresis Effects on Unemployment Rates: A Comparative Study of the Baltic States Before and After EU Accession
title_fullStr Hysteresis Effects on Unemployment Rates: A Comparative Study of the Baltic States Before and After EU Accession
title_full_unstemmed Hysteresis Effects on Unemployment Rates: A Comparative Study of the Baltic States Before and After EU Accession
title_short Hysteresis Effects on Unemployment Rates: A Comparative Study of the Baltic States Before and After EU Accession
title_sort hysteresis effects on unemployment rates a comparative study of the baltic states before and after eu accession
topic unemployment
hysteresis
Baltic countries
RALS-LM
url https://www.journals.vu.lt/omee/article/view/38040
work_keys_str_mv AT tunakose hysteresiseffectsonunemploymentratesacomparativestudyofthebalticstatesbeforeandaftereuaccession