The effect of mumps vaccine on the incidence of mumps in Hefei: An interrupted time-series analysis
To quantitatively assess the incremental protective effect of two-dose mumps vaccination in Hefei. Monthly mumps incidence during 2011–2023 were collected. The Interrupted Time Series and Segmented Regression Analyses (ITSA) were employed to evaluate the variations in monthly mumps incidence followi...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/21645515.2025.2511359 |
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| Summary: | To quantitatively assess the incremental protective effect of two-dose mumps vaccination in Hefei. Monthly mumps incidence during 2011–2023 were collected. The Interrupted Time Series and Segmented Regression Analyses (ITSA) were employed to evaluate the variations in monthly mumps incidence following the introduction of one-dose mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) and two-dose measles-mumps-rubella combined attenuated live vaccine (MMR) into the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI). The average annual incidence was 16.95 per 100,000 population (18.75 and 10.95 in one-dose and two-dose vaccination periods respectively). The incidence was the highest among children aged 5–14. ITSA revealed that monthly incidences of mumps decreased by 0.015 per 100,000 (β1 = −0.015, P < .001) in one-dose MuCV vaccination period. The incidence decreased in all four age groups, with the largest decline observed among children aged 10–14 (β1 = −0.139, P < .001), followed by children aged 5–9 (β1 = −0.089, p = .003). In two-dose MMR vaccination period, the monthly incidence of total population, 0–4, 5–9, 10–14 and ≥15 average decreased by 0.014, 0.109, 0.133, 0.018, and 0.0003 (β1+β3) per 100,000, respectively. The mumps incidence decreased over time with the highest annual incidence shifting to young children. One-dose MuCV vaccination significantly reduced the incidence of mumps, with the largest decline observed among children aged 5–14, but the effect diminishes in older age groups. Booster vaccination for adolescents over 10 years old or optimizing the dose interval might be a good option to effectively control the incidence of mumps. The impact of the two-dose MMR immunization strategy on the trend of mumps morbidity necessitates additional investigation. |
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| ISSN: | 2164-5515 2164-554X |