Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere during boreal winter with multiple-model ensemble simulations
<p>To better understand possible reasons for the diverse modeling results and large discrepancies of the detected solar fingerprints, we took one step back and assessed the “initial” solar signals in the middle atmosphere based on a set of ensemble historical simulations with multiple climate...
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Copernicus Publications
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/2589/2025/acp-25-2589-2025.pdf |
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| author | W. Huo T. Spiegl T. Spiegl S. Wahl K. Matthes U. Langematz H. Pohlmann J. Kröger |
| author_facet | W. Huo T. Spiegl T. Spiegl S. Wahl K. Matthes U. Langematz H. Pohlmann J. Kröger |
| author_sort | W. Huo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>To better understand possible reasons for the diverse modeling results and large discrepancies of the detected solar fingerprints, we took one step back and assessed the “initial” solar signals in the middle atmosphere based on a set of ensemble historical simulations with multiple climate models – the Flexible Ocean Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC), and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model in high-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-HR). Consistent with previous work, we find that the 11-year solar cycle signals in the shortwave heating rate (SWHR) and ozone anomalies are robust and statistically significant in all three models. These initial solar cycle signals in the SWHR, ozone, and temperature anomalies are sensitive to the strength of the solar forcing. Correlation coefficients of the solar cycle with the SWHR, ozone, and temperature anomalies linearly increase along with the enhancement of the solar cycle amplitude. This reliance becomes more complex when the solar cycle amplitude – indicated by the standard deviation of the December–January–February mean <span class="inline-formula"><i>F</i><sub>10.7</sub></span> – is larger than 40. In addition, the cold bias in the tropical stratopause of EMAC dampens the subsequent results of the initial solar signal. The warm pole bias in MPI-ESM-HR leads to a weak polar night jet (PNJ), which may limit the top-down propagation of the initial solar signal. Although FOCI simulated a so-called top-down response as revealed in previous studies in a period with large solar cycle amplitudes, its warm bias in the tropical upper stratosphere results in a positive bias in PNJ and can lead to a “reversed” response in some extreme cases. We suggest a careful interpretation of the single model result and further re-examination of the solar signal based on more climate models.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-50385543385b421bad0d3fa4ab0d1676 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
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| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj-art-50385543385b421bad0d3fa4ab0d16762025-08-20T02:55:04ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242025-02-01252589261210.5194/acp-25-2589-2025Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere during boreal winter with multiple-model ensemble simulationsW. Huo0T. Spiegl1T. Spiegl2S. Wahl3K. Matthes4U. Langematz5H. Pohlmann6J. Kröger7GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24148 Kiel, GermanyAlfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, 27570 Bremerhaven, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, GermanyGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24148 Kiel, GermanyGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, 24148 Kiel, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, GermanyDepartment Climate Variability, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, GermanyDepartment Climate Variability, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany<p>To better understand possible reasons for the diverse modeling results and large discrepancies of the detected solar fingerprints, we took one step back and assessed the “initial” solar signals in the middle atmosphere based on a set of ensemble historical simulations with multiple climate models – the Flexible Ocean Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC), and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model in high-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-HR). Consistent with previous work, we find that the 11-year solar cycle signals in the shortwave heating rate (SWHR) and ozone anomalies are robust and statistically significant in all three models. These initial solar cycle signals in the SWHR, ozone, and temperature anomalies are sensitive to the strength of the solar forcing. Correlation coefficients of the solar cycle with the SWHR, ozone, and temperature anomalies linearly increase along with the enhancement of the solar cycle amplitude. This reliance becomes more complex when the solar cycle amplitude – indicated by the standard deviation of the December–January–February mean <span class="inline-formula"><i>F</i><sub>10.7</sub></span> – is larger than 40. In addition, the cold bias in the tropical stratopause of EMAC dampens the subsequent results of the initial solar signal. The warm pole bias in MPI-ESM-HR leads to a weak polar night jet (PNJ), which may limit the top-down propagation of the initial solar signal. Although FOCI simulated a so-called top-down response as revealed in previous studies in a period with large solar cycle amplitudes, its warm bias in the tropical upper stratosphere results in a positive bias in PNJ and can lead to a “reversed” response in some extreme cases. We suggest a careful interpretation of the single model result and further re-examination of the solar signal based on more climate models.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/2589/2025/acp-25-2589-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | W. Huo T. Spiegl T. Spiegl S. Wahl K. Matthes U. Langematz H. Pohlmann J. Kröger Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere during boreal winter with multiple-model ensemble simulations Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere during boreal winter with multiple-model ensemble simulations |
| title_full | Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere during boreal winter with multiple-model ensemble simulations |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere during boreal winter with multiple-model ensemble simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere during boreal winter with multiple-model ensemble simulations |
| title_short | Assessment of the 11-year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere during boreal winter with multiple-model ensemble simulations |
| title_sort | assessment of the 11 year solar cycle signals in the middle atmosphere during boreal winter with multiple model ensemble simulations |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/2589/2025/acp-25-2589-2025.pdf |
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