Significant increase and escalation of drought-flood abrupt alteration in China's future
Drought-flood abrupt alteration (DFAA) events threaten global food security, exacerbated by global warming, particularly in China. Given this, a more refined and comprehensive analysis of DFAA events in China can provide valuable insights for global mitigation efforts. This study examines the freque...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Agricultural Water Management |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425001635 |
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| author | Shuai Zheng Baisha Weng Wuxia Bi Denghua Yan Liliang Ren Hao Wang |
| author_facet | Shuai Zheng Baisha Weng Wuxia Bi Denghua Yan Liliang Ren Hao Wang |
| author_sort | Shuai Zheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Drought-flood abrupt alteration (DFAA) events threaten global food security, exacerbated by global warming, particularly in China. Given this, a more refined and comprehensive analysis of DFAA events in China can provide valuable insights for global mitigation efforts. This study examines the frequency, intensity, and coverage of DFAA events during the historical periods (HIS, 1961–2014) and under future climate projections based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585, 2015–2100) using a daily-scale determination method. The results revealed that regions with frequent DFAA events also experience higher intensity and broader impact areas. Compared to HIS, DFAA event frequency, intensity, and coverage increased by 31 %, 3 %, and 37 % under SSPs, reaching 7.31 events/year, 1.069, and 0.422 %. Across both HIS and SSPs, the proportions of light (75 %-78 %), moderate (18 %-21 %), and severe (4 %-5 %) DFAA events remained relatively stable. YGP, HHHP, MLYP, NCP, and NASR are the five hotspot areas. Analysis attributes 45 % (P < 0.05) of DFAA frequency variability to drought and flood frequency (74.45 %) and duration (25.55 %). Furthermore, low to medium emission scenarios show significant potential to reduce DFAA occurrence, offering direction to mitigate the impacts of global warming, particularly as mid-latitude regions have emerged as DFAA hotspots over the past 30 years. These findings provide critical insights for countries addressing climate change and ensuring food security. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4fcc35208c8846f898e448e500df6bf8 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1873-2283 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Water Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-4fcc35208c8846f898e448e500df6bf82025-08-20T03:10:34ZengElsevierAgricultural Water Management1873-22832025-05-0131210944910.1016/j.agwat.2025.109449Significant increase and escalation of drought-flood abrupt alteration in China's futureShuai Zheng0Baisha Weng1Wuxia Bi2Denghua Yan3Liliang Ren4Hao Wang5State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-hydrology National Observation and Research Station, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; Corresponding author at: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaCollege of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaDrought-flood abrupt alteration (DFAA) events threaten global food security, exacerbated by global warming, particularly in China. Given this, a more refined and comprehensive analysis of DFAA events in China can provide valuable insights for global mitigation efforts. This study examines the frequency, intensity, and coverage of DFAA events during the historical periods (HIS, 1961–2014) and under future climate projections based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585, 2015–2100) using a daily-scale determination method. The results revealed that regions with frequent DFAA events also experience higher intensity and broader impact areas. Compared to HIS, DFAA event frequency, intensity, and coverage increased by 31 %, 3 %, and 37 % under SSPs, reaching 7.31 events/year, 1.069, and 0.422 %. Across both HIS and SSPs, the proportions of light (75 %-78 %), moderate (18 %-21 %), and severe (4 %-5 %) DFAA events remained relatively stable. YGP, HHHP, MLYP, NCP, and NASR are the five hotspot areas. Analysis attributes 45 % (P < 0.05) of DFAA frequency variability to drought and flood frequency (74.45 %) and duration (25.55 %). Furthermore, low to medium emission scenarios show significant potential to reduce DFAA occurrence, offering direction to mitigate the impacts of global warming, particularly as mid-latitude regions have emerged as DFAA hotspots over the past 30 years. These findings provide critical insights for countries addressing climate change and ensuring food security.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425001635Drought-flood abrupt alterationClimate changeShared Socioeconomic PathwaysFood security |
| spellingShingle | Shuai Zheng Baisha Weng Wuxia Bi Denghua Yan Liliang Ren Hao Wang Significant increase and escalation of drought-flood abrupt alteration in China's future Agricultural Water Management Drought-flood abrupt alteration Climate change Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Food security |
| title | Significant increase and escalation of drought-flood abrupt alteration in China's future |
| title_full | Significant increase and escalation of drought-flood abrupt alteration in China's future |
| title_fullStr | Significant increase and escalation of drought-flood abrupt alteration in China's future |
| title_full_unstemmed | Significant increase and escalation of drought-flood abrupt alteration in China's future |
| title_short | Significant increase and escalation of drought-flood abrupt alteration in China's future |
| title_sort | significant increase and escalation of drought flood abrupt alteration in china s future |
| topic | Drought-flood abrupt alteration Climate change Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Food security |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425001635 |
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