Scenarios for the deployment of automated vehicles in Europe
The deployment of Automated Vehicles (AVs) is expected to address road transport externalities (e.g., safety, traffic, environmental impact, etc.). For this reason, a legal framework for their large-scale market introduction and deployment is currently being developed in the European Union. Despite...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S259019822500209X |
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| _version_ | 1849229232291446784 |
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| author | Louison Duboz Ioan Cristinel Raileanu Jette Krause Ana Norman-López Matthias Weitzel Biagio Ciuffo |
| author_facet | Louison Duboz Ioan Cristinel Raileanu Jette Krause Ana Norman-López Matthias Weitzel Biagio Ciuffo |
| author_sort | Louison Duboz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The deployment of Automated Vehicles (AVs) is expected to address road transport externalities (e.g., safety, traffic, environmental impact, etc.). For this reason, a legal framework for their large-scale market introduction and deployment is currently being developed in the European Union. Despite the first steps towards road transport automation, the timeline for full automation and its potential economic benefits remains uncertain. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it presents a methodological framework to determine deployment pathways of the five different levels of automation in EU27 + UK to 2050 under three scenarios (i.e., slow, medium baseline and fast) focusing on passenger vehicles. Second, it proposes an assessment of the economic impact of AVs through the calculation of the value-added. The method to define assumptions and uptake trajectories involves a comprehensive literature review, expert interviews, and a model to forecast the new registrations of different levels of automation. In this way, the interviews provided insights that complemented the literature and informed the design of assumptions and deployment trajectories. The added-value assessment shows additional economic activity due to the introduction of automated technologies in all uptake scenarios. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4f770a2b01f84e21bd1e8f030bbdd004 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2590-1982 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives |
| spelling | doaj-art-4f770a2b01f84e21bd1e8f030bbdd0042025-08-22T04:57:53ZengElsevierTransportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives2590-19822025-07-013210153010.1016/j.trip.2025.101530Scenarios for the deployment of automated vehicles in EuropeLouison Duboz0Ioan Cristinel Raileanu1Jette Krause2Ana Norman-López3Matthias Weitzel4Biagio Ciuffo5European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ixelles 1050, BelgiumIndependent Researcher, 077042 Chiajna, RomaniaEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra 20127, Italy; Corresponding author.European Commission Joint Research Centre, 41092 Sevilla, SpainEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre, 41092 Sevilla, SpainEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra 20127, ItalyThe deployment of Automated Vehicles (AVs) is expected to address road transport externalities (e.g., safety, traffic, environmental impact, etc.). For this reason, a legal framework for their large-scale market introduction and deployment is currently being developed in the European Union. Despite the first steps towards road transport automation, the timeline for full automation and its potential economic benefits remains uncertain. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it presents a methodological framework to determine deployment pathways of the five different levels of automation in EU27 + UK to 2050 under three scenarios (i.e., slow, medium baseline and fast) focusing on passenger vehicles. Second, it proposes an assessment of the economic impact of AVs through the calculation of the value-added. The method to define assumptions and uptake trajectories involves a comprehensive literature review, expert interviews, and a model to forecast the new registrations of different levels of automation. In this way, the interviews provided insights that complemented the literature and informed the design of assumptions and deployment trajectories. The added-value assessment shows additional economic activity due to the introduction of automated technologies in all uptake scenarios.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S259019822500209XEconomic impactAutomated vehiclesAVs deploymentBass modelEuropean Union |
| spellingShingle | Louison Duboz Ioan Cristinel Raileanu Jette Krause Ana Norman-López Matthias Weitzel Biagio Ciuffo Scenarios for the deployment of automated vehicles in Europe Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives Economic impact Automated vehicles AVs deployment Bass model European Union |
| title | Scenarios for the deployment of automated vehicles in Europe |
| title_full | Scenarios for the deployment of automated vehicles in Europe |
| title_fullStr | Scenarios for the deployment of automated vehicles in Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenarios for the deployment of automated vehicles in Europe |
| title_short | Scenarios for the deployment of automated vehicles in Europe |
| title_sort | scenarios for the deployment of automated vehicles in europe |
| topic | Economic impact Automated vehicles AVs deployment Bass model European Union |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S259019822500209X |
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