Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030
In addressing global climate change and promoting economic growth, achieving a comprehensive carbon balance at the county level is vital for sustainable development. However, most studies focus on the balance between carbon emissions and sequestration (CESB), neglecting the intricate ecological and...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-08-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Digital Earth |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2024.2448572 |
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| author | Yuliang Deng Min Huang Daohong Gong Yong Ge Hui Lin Daoye Zhu Yong Chen Orhan Altan |
| author_facet | Yuliang Deng Min Huang Daohong Gong Yong Ge Hui Lin Daoye Zhu Yong Chen Orhan Altan |
| author_sort | Yuliang Deng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In addressing global climate change and promoting economic growth, achieving a comprehensive carbon balance at the county level is vital for sustainable development. However, most studies focus on the balance between carbon emissions and sequestration (CESB), neglecting the intricate ecological and economic carbon balance (EECB) at this scale. This study introduces an analytical framework that couples economic development with ecological protection by using coupling coordination degree analysis, carbon balance zoning, and the Markov-PLUS model. Taking Jiangxi Province as a case study, we evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of carbon balance from 2000–2020 and predict future trends for 2030 under four potential development scenarios. Results reveal significant regional variations in CESB over the two decades, which primarily exhibit net carbon emission. Meanwhile, the continuous decline in EECB highlights the need for balanced economic and ecological development. By 2030, the land use's carbon sequestration capacity is expected to increase under different scenarios, leading to a ‘middle-high, sides-low’ spatial pattern in CESB. These findings are crucial for policymakers in devising strategies for sustainable regional development. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4f59199e3740488b877fa166eac3f97d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1753-8947 1753-8955 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Digital Earth |
| spelling | doaj-art-4f59199e3740488b877fa166eac3f97d2025-08-25T11:24:55ZengTaylor & Francis GroupInternational Journal of Digital Earth1753-89471753-89552025-08-0118110.1080/17538947.2024.2448572Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030Yuliang Deng0Min Huang1Daohong Gong2Yong Ge3Hui Lin4Daoye Zhu5Yong Chen6Orhan Altan7School of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaCollege of Computer and Data Science, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Geomatics, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, TurkeyIn addressing global climate change and promoting economic growth, achieving a comprehensive carbon balance at the county level is vital for sustainable development. However, most studies focus on the balance between carbon emissions and sequestration (CESB), neglecting the intricate ecological and economic carbon balance (EECB) at this scale. This study introduces an analytical framework that couples economic development with ecological protection by using coupling coordination degree analysis, carbon balance zoning, and the Markov-PLUS model. Taking Jiangxi Province as a case study, we evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of carbon balance from 2000–2020 and predict future trends for 2030 under four potential development scenarios. Results reveal significant regional variations in CESB over the two decades, which primarily exhibit net carbon emission. Meanwhile, the continuous decline in EECB highlights the need for balanced economic and ecological development. By 2030, the land use's carbon sequestration capacity is expected to increase under different scenarios, leading to a ‘middle-high, sides-low’ spatial pattern in CESB. These findings are crucial for policymakers in devising strategies for sustainable regional development.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2024.2448572Carbon balancecarbon emissionscenario simulationland useeconomic developmentecological protection |
| spellingShingle | Yuliang Deng Min Huang Daohong Gong Yong Ge Hui Lin Daoye Zhu Yong Chen Orhan Altan Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030 International Journal of Digital Earth Carbon balance carbon emission scenario simulation land use economic development ecological protection |
| title | Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030 |
| title_full | Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030 |
| title_fullStr | Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030 |
| title_short | Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030 |
| title_sort | carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection a case study of jiangxi province at county scale from 2000 2030 |
| topic | Carbon balance carbon emission scenario simulation land use economic development ecological protection |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2024.2448572 |
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