Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030

In addressing global climate change and promoting economic growth, achieving a comprehensive carbon balance at the county level is vital for sustainable development. However, most studies focus on the balance between carbon emissions and sequestration (CESB), neglecting the intricate ecological and...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Yuliang Deng, Min Huang, Daohong Gong, Yong Ge, Hui Lin, Daoye Zhu, Yong Chen, Orhan Altan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2025-08-01
Series:International Journal of Digital Earth
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2024.2448572
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849224358489227264
author Yuliang Deng
Min Huang
Daohong Gong
Yong Ge
Hui Lin
Daoye Zhu
Yong Chen
Orhan Altan
author_facet Yuliang Deng
Min Huang
Daohong Gong
Yong Ge
Hui Lin
Daoye Zhu
Yong Chen
Orhan Altan
author_sort Yuliang Deng
collection DOAJ
description In addressing global climate change and promoting economic growth, achieving a comprehensive carbon balance at the county level is vital for sustainable development. However, most studies focus on the balance between carbon emissions and sequestration (CESB), neglecting the intricate ecological and economic carbon balance (EECB) at this scale. This study introduces an analytical framework that couples economic development with ecological protection by using coupling coordination degree analysis, carbon balance zoning, and the Markov-PLUS model. Taking Jiangxi Province as a case study, we evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of carbon balance from 2000–2020 and predict future trends for 2030 under four potential development scenarios. Results reveal significant regional variations in CESB over the two decades, which primarily exhibit net carbon emission. Meanwhile, the continuous decline in EECB highlights the need for balanced economic and ecological development. By 2030, the land use's carbon sequestration capacity is expected to increase under different scenarios, leading to a ‘middle-high, sides-low’ spatial pattern in CESB. These findings are crucial for policymakers in devising strategies for sustainable regional development.
format Article
id doaj-art-4f59199e3740488b877fa166eac3f97d
institution Kabale University
issn 1753-8947
1753-8955
language English
publishDate 2025-08-01
publisher Taylor & Francis Group
record_format Article
series International Journal of Digital Earth
spelling doaj-art-4f59199e3740488b877fa166eac3f97d2025-08-25T11:24:55ZengTaylor & Francis GroupInternational Journal of Digital Earth1753-89471753-89552025-08-0118110.1080/17538947.2024.2448572Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030Yuliang Deng0Min Huang1Daohong Gong2Yong Ge3Hui Lin4Daoye Zhu5Yong Chen6Orhan Altan7School of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaCollege of Computer and Data Science, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Geography and Environment/Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment of Jiangxi Province, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Geomatics, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, TurkeyIn addressing global climate change and promoting economic growth, achieving a comprehensive carbon balance at the county level is vital for sustainable development. However, most studies focus on the balance between carbon emissions and sequestration (CESB), neglecting the intricate ecological and economic carbon balance (EECB) at this scale. This study introduces an analytical framework that couples economic development with ecological protection by using coupling coordination degree analysis, carbon balance zoning, and the Markov-PLUS model. Taking Jiangxi Province as a case study, we evaluate the spatio-temporal dynamics of carbon balance from 2000–2020 and predict future trends for 2030 under four potential development scenarios. Results reveal significant regional variations in CESB over the two decades, which primarily exhibit net carbon emission. Meanwhile, the continuous decline in EECB highlights the need for balanced economic and ecological development. By 2030, the land use's carbon sequestration capacity is expected to increase under different scenarios, leading to a ‘middle-high, sides-low’ spatial pattern in CESB. These findings are crucial for policymakers in devising strategies for sustainable regional development.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2024.2448572Carbon balancecarbon emissionscenario simulationland useeconomic developmentecological protection
spellingShingle Yuliang Deng
Min Huang
Daohong Gong
Yong Ge
Hui Lin
Daoye Zhu
Yong Chen
Orhan Altan
Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030
International Journal of Digital Earth
Carbon balance
carbon emission
scenario simulation
land use
economic development
ecological protection
title Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030
title_full Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030
title_fullStr Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030
title_full_unstemmed Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030
title_short Carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection: a case study of Jiangxi Province at county scale from 2000–2030
title_sort carbon balance dynamic evolution and simulation coupling economic development and ecological protection a case study of jiangxi province at county scale from 2000 2030
topic Carbon balance
carbon emission
scenario simulation
land use
economic development
ecological protection
url https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/17538947.2024.2448572
work_keys_str_mv AT yuliangdeng carbonbalancedynamicevolutionandsimulationcouplingeconomicdevelopmentandecologicalprotectionacasestudyofjiangxiprovinceatcountyscalefrom20002030
AT minhuang carbonbalancedynamicevolutionandsimulationcouplingeconomicdevelopmentandecologicalprotectionacasestudyofjiangxiprovinceatcountyscalefrom20002030
AT daohonggong carbonbalancedynamicevolutionandsimulationcouplingeconomicdevelopmentandecologicalprotectionacasestudyofjiangxiprovinceatcountyscalefrom20002030
AT yongge carbonbalancedynamicevolutionandsimulationcouplingeconomicdevelopmentandecologicalprotectionacasestudyofjiangxiprovinceatcountyscalefrom20002030
AT huilin carbonbalancedynamicevolutionandsimulationcouplingeconomicdevelopmentandecologicalprotectionacasestudyofjiangxiprovinceatcountyscalefrom20002030
AT daoyezhu carbonbalancedynamicevolutionandsimulationcouplingeconomicdevelopmentandecologicalprotectionacasestudyofjiangxiprovinceatcountyscalefrom20002030
AT yongchen carbonbalancedynamicevolutionandsimulationcouplingeconomicdevelopmentandecologicalprotectionacasestudyofjiangxiprovinceatcountyscalefrom20002030
AT orhanaltan carbonbalancedynamicevolutionandsimulationcouplingeconomicdevelopmentandecologicalprotectionacasestudyofjiangxiprovinceatcountyscalefrom20002030