Magmatic Triggering of Earthquakes on Distal Faults as a Potential Medium‐Term Warning Signal From Ruapehu Volcano

Abstract A major eruption sequence of Ruapehu volcano began on 17 September 1995, with only hours of local precursory seismicity. However, from about 10 to 5 months prior to the eruption, an unusually high number of tectonic earthquakes occurred between 15 and 20 km west of Ruapehu. Diffusion chrono...

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Main Authors: Tony Hurst, Geoff Kilgour, Ian Hamling
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2018-12-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080677
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author Tony Hurst
Geoff Kilgour
Ian Hamling
author_facet Tony Hurst
Geoff Kilgour
Ian Hamling
author_sort Tony Hurst
collection DOAJ
description Abstract A major eruption sequence of Ruapehu volcano began on 17 September 1995, with only hours of local precursory seismicity. However, from about 10 to 5 months prior to the eruption, an unusually high number of tectonic earthquakes occurred between 15 and 20 km west of Ruapehu. Diffusion chronometry of zoned crystals within erupted scoria from the 1995 eruptions of Ruapehu provide a petrological timescale of magmatic processes before the eruption. This timescale coincides with the seismicity to the west of Ruapehu. Stress modeling shows that stress changes due to movement of newly mixed magma from a sill under Ruapehu would have significantly added to the stress on preexisting faults, thereby providing a mechanism to explain the observed pre‐eruption seismicity. This shows that tectonic earthquakes in the vicinity of an active volcano may be an indication of magma movement and should be viewed as a possible eruption precursor.
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spelling doaj-art-4f469615b2d143ccbbdb5f31bebbecea2025-08-20T02:31:37ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072018-12-01452312,77612,78310.1029/2018GL080677Magmatic Triggering of Earthquakes on Distal Faults as a Potential Medium‐Term Warning Signal From Ruapehu VolcanoTony Hurst0Geoff Kilgour1Ian Hamling2GNS Science Lower Hutt New ZealandWairakei Research Centre GNS Science Taupo New ZealandGNS Science Lower Hutt New ZealandAbstract A major eruption sequence of Ruapehu volcano began on 17 September 1995, with only hours of local precursory seismicity. However, from about 10 to 5 months prior to the eruption, an unusually high number of tectonic earthquakes occurred between 15 and 20 km west of Ruapehu. Diffusion chronometry of zoned crystals within erupted scoria from the 1995 eruptions of Ruapehu provide a petrological timescale of magmatic processes before the eruption. This timescale coincides with the seismicity to the west of Ruapehu. Stress modeling shows that stress changes due to movement of newly mixed magma from a sill under Ruapehu would have significantly added to the stress on preexisting faults, thereby providing a mechanism to explain the observed pre‐eruption seismicity. This shows that tectonic earthquakes in the vicinity of an active volcano may be an indication of magma movement and should be viewed as a possible eruption precursor.https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080677
spellingShingle Tony Hurst
Geoff Kilgour
Ian Hamling
Magmatic Triggering of Earthquakes on Distal Faults as a Potential Medium‐Term Warning Signal From Ruapehu Volcano
Geophysical Research Letters
title Magmatic Triggering of Earthquakes on Distal Faults as a Potential Medium‐Term Warning Signal From Ruapehu Volcano
title_full Magmatic Triggering of Earthquakes on Distal Faults as a Potential Medium‐Term Warning Signal From Ruapehu Volcano
title_fullStr Magmatic Triggering of Earthquakes on Distal Faults as a Potential Medium‐Term Warning Signal From Ruapehu Volcano
title_full_unstemmed Magmatic Triggering of Earthquakes on Distal Faults as a Potential Medium‐Term Warning Signal From Ruapehu Volcano
title_short Magmatic Triggering of Earthquakes on Distal Faults as a Potential Medium‐Term Warning Signal From Ruapehu Volcano
title_sort magmatic triggering of earthquakes on distal faults as a potential medium term warning signal from ruapehu volcano
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080677
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AT ianhamling magmatictriggeringofearthquakesondistalfaultsasapotentialmediumtermwarningsignalfromruapehuvolcano