An enhanced Budyko-based water balance model simulating monthly runoff in headwater catchments of the Tarim River Basin

Study region: the Tarim River Basin (TRB), China Study focus: Climate warming is rapidly retreating the cryosphere, increasing water yield variability in high mountain catchments and challenging downstream water management. A deeper understanding of water resources involving quantifying runoff compo...

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Main Authors: Shiwei Liu, Cunde Xiao, David E. Robertson, Bo Su, Yi Huang, Tianye Wang, Xiaoming Wang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-08-01
Series:Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182500401X
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author Shiwei Liu
Cunde Xiao
David E. Robertson
Bo Su
Yi Huang
Tianye Wang
Xiaoming Wang
author_facet Shiwei Liu
Cunde Xiao
David E. Robertson
Bo Su
Yi Huang
Tianye Wang
Xiaoming Wang
author_sort Shiwei Liu
collection DOAJ
description Study region: the Tarim River Basin (TRB), China Study focus: Climate warming is rapidly retreating the cryosphere, increasing water yield variability in high mountain catchments and challenging downstream water management. A deeper understanding of water resources involving quantifying runoff components, is crucial for effective adaptation strategies in high mountain catchments. However, data scarcity limits the application of complex physically-based models in high mountain areas. To address this challenge, an enhanced conceptual hydrological model is proposed, integrating glacier and snowpack ablation processes into a classical Budyko framework-based model, using only precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration as inputs. New hydrological insights for the region: The novel model was applied to simulate runoff and identify runoff components in the upper TRB. Results indicate that 76 % of the 25 catchments achieved good performance. From 2001–2010, observed and modelled mean annual runoff were 146.2 ± 29.2 mm/a and 143.7 ± 18.2 mm/a. We found that glacier runoff, snowmelt runoff, rainfall runoff and baseflow account for 53.8 %, 3.9 %, 12.7 % and 29.6 % of the total runoff, respectively. Furthermore, the runoff during May to September accounted for 81.4 % of the total runoff, of which glacier runoff accounted for 67.3 %. This finding underscores the importance of glacier water for agriculture irrigation in the TRB. The model provides a novel and efficient tool for runoff simulation in the glacierized basins with scarce data.
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spelling doaj-art-4f344b0e8bab45f9b27970991da4d8402025-08-20T03:25:29ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-08-016010257610.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102576An enhanced Budyko-based water balance model simulating monthly runoff in headwater catchments of the Tarim River BasinShiwei Liu0Cunde Xiao1David E. Robertson2Bo Su3Yi Huang4Tianye Wang5Xiaoming Wang6State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Corresponding author.CSIRO Environment, Clayton, VIC 3168, AustraliaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, SwedenState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaSchool of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia; Corresponding author at: State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China.Study region: the Tarim River Basin (TRB), China Study focus: Climate warming is rapidly retreating the cryosphere, increasing water yield variability in high mountain catchments and challenging downstream water management. A deeper understanding of water resources involving quantifying runoff components, is crucial for effective adaptation strategies in high mountain catchments. However, data scarcity limits the application of complex physically-based models in high mountain areas. To address this challenge, an enhanced conceptual hydrological model is proposed, integrating glacier and snowpack ablation processes into a classical Budyko framework-based model, using only precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration as inputs. New hydrological insights for the region: The novel model was applied to simulate runoff and identify runoff components in the upper TRB. Results indicate that 76 % of the 25 catchments achieved good performance. From 2001–2010, observed and modelled mean annual runoff were 146.2 ± 29.2 mm/a and 143.7 ± 18.2 mm/a. We found that glacier runoff, snowmelt runoff, rainfall runoff and baseflow account for 53.8 %, 3.9 %, 12.7 % and 29.6 % of the total runoff, respectively. Furthermore, the runoff during May to September accounted for 81.4 % of the total runoff, of which glacier runoff accounted for 67.3 %. This finding underscores the importance of glacier water for agriculture irrigation in the TRB. The model provides a novel and efficient tool for runoff simulation in the glacierized basins with scarce data.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182500401XHydrological modellingBudyko frameworkMonthly water balance modelTarim River Basin
spellingShingle Shiwei Liu
Cunde Xiao
David E. Robertson
Bo Su
Yi Huang
Tianye Wang
Xiaoming Wang
An enhanced Budyko-based water balance model simulating monthly runoff in headwater catchments of the Tarim River Basin
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Hydrological modelling
Budyko framework
Monthly water balance model
Tarim River Basin
title An enhanced Budyko-based water balance model simulating monthly runoff in headwater catchments of the Tarim River Basin
title_full An enhanced Budyko-based water balance model simulating monthly runoff in headwater catchments of the Tarim River Basin
title_fullStr An enhanced Budyko-based water balance model simulating monthly runoff in headwater catchments of the Tarim River Basin
title_full_unstemmed An enhanced Budyko-based water balance model simulating monthly runoff in headwater catchments of the Tarim River Basin
title_short An enhanced Budyko-based water balance model simulating monthly runoff in headwater catchments of the Tarim River Basin
title_sort enhanced budyko based water balance model simulating monthly runoff in headwater catchments of the tarim river basin
topic Hydrological modelling
Budyko framework
Monthly water balance model
Tarim River Basin
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182500401X
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