Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model
The mean seismic probability risk model has widely been used in seismic design and safety evaluation of critical infrastructures. In this paper, the confidence levels analysis and error equations derivation of the mean seismic probability risk model are conducted. It has been found that the confiden...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2017-01-01
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| Series: | Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/2480940 |
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| author | Xiao-Lei Wang Da-Gang Lu |
| author_facet | Xiao-Lei Wang Da-Gang Lu |
| author_sort | Xiao-Lei Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The mean seismic probability risk model has widely been used in seismic design and safety evaluation of critical infrastructures. In this paper, the confidence levels analysis and error equations derivation of the mean seismic probability risk model are conducted. It has been found that the confidence levels and error values of the mean seismic probability risk model are changed for different sites and that the confidence levels are low and the error values are large for most sites. Meanwhile, the confidence levels of ASCE/SEI 43-05 design parameters are analyzed and the error equation of achieved performance probabilities based on ASCE/SEI 43-05 is also obtained. It is found that the confidence levels for design results obtained using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria are not high, which are less than 95%, while the high confidence level of the uniform risk could not be achieved using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria and the error values between risk model with target confidence level and mean risk model using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria are large for some sites. It is suggested that the seismic risk model considering high confidence levels instead of the mean seismic probability risk model should be used in the future. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4f33460e545449aab64ee3894ce9cfba |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-6075 1687-6083 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations |
| spelling | doaj-art-4f33460e545449aab64ee3894ce9cfba2025-02-03T05:58:45ZengWileyScience and Technology of Nuclear Installations1687-60751687-60832017-01-01201710.1155/2017/24809402480940Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk ModelXiao-Lei Wang0Da-Gang Lu1School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, ChinaThe mean seismic probability risk model has widely been used in seismic design and safety evaluation of critical infrastructures. In this paper, the confidence levels analysis and error equations derivation of the mean seismic probability risk model are conducted. It has been found that the confidence levels and error values of the mean seismic probability risk model are changed for different sites and that the confidence levels are low and the error values are large for most sites. Meanwhile, the confidence levels of ASCE/SEI 43-05 design parameters are analyzed and the error equation of achieved performance probabilities based on ASCE/SEI 43-05 is also obtained. It is found that the confidence levels for design results obtained using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria are not high, which are less than 95%, while the high confidence level of the uniform risk could not be achieved using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria and the error values between risk model with target confidence level and mean risk model using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria are large for some sites. It is suggested that the seismic risk model considering high confidence levels instead of the mean seismic probability risk model should be used in the future.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/2480940 |
| spellingShingle | Xiao-Lei Wang Da-Gang Lu Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations |
| title | Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model |
| title_full | Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model |
| title_fullStr | Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model |
| title_short | Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model |
| title_sort | study on the confidence and reliability of the mean seismic probability risk model |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/2480940 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT xiaoleiwang studyontheconfidenceandreliabilityofthemeanseismicprobabilityriskmodel AT daganglu studyontheconfidenceandreliabilityofthemeanseismicprobabilityriskmodel |