Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
<p>Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events but rather show a multivariate character, known as co...
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Copernicus Publications
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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| author | E. Xoplaki E. Xoplaki F. Ellsäßer F. Ellsäßer J. Grieger K. M. Nissen J. G. Pinto M. Augenstein T.-C. Chen T.-C. Chen H. Feldmann P. Friederichs D. Gliksman D. Gliksman L. Goulier K. Haustein K. Haustein J. Heinke L. Jach F. Knutzen S. Kollet J. Luterbacher J. Luterbacher N. Luther S. Mohr S. Mohr C. Mudersbach C. Müller E. Rousi F. Simon L. Suarez-Gutierrez L. Suarez-Gutierrez L. Suarez-Gutierrez S. Szemkus S. M. Vallejo-Bernal S. M. Vallejo-Bernal S. M. Vallejo-Bernal O. Vlachopoulos F. Wolf |
| author_facet | E. Xoplaki E. Xoplaki F. Ellsäßer F. Ellsäßer J. Grieger K. M. Nissen J. G. Pinto M. Augenstein T.-C. Chen T.-C. Chen H. Feldmann P. Friederichs D. Gliksman D. Gliksman L. Goulier K. Haustein K. Haustein J. Heinke L. Jach F. Knutzen S. Kollet J. Luterbacher J. Luterbacher N. Luther S. Mohr S. Mohr C. Mudersbach C. Müller E. Rousi F. Simon L. Suarez-Gutierrez L. Suarez-Gutierrez L. Suarez-Gutierrez S. Szemkus S. M. Vallejo-Bernal S. M. Vallejo-Bernal S. M. Vallejo-Bernal O. Vlachopoulos F. Wolf |
| author_sort | E. Xoplaki |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events but rather show a multivariate character, known as compound events. We investigate the interactions between extreme weather events, their characteristics, and changes in their intensity and frequency, as well as uncertainties in the past, present, and future. We also explore their impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus on 2018, a year marked by an exceptional sequence of compound events across large parts of Europe, resulting in severe impacts on human lives, ecosystems, and infrastructure. We provide new insights into the drivers of spatially and temporally compound events, such as heat and drought, and heavy precipitation combined with extreme winds, and their adverse effects on ecosystems and society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We also examine the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assess projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the need for improved quantification of future extreme events to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps and future directions, stressing the importance of defining composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation.</p> |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
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| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-4f2cddcb36904744aa67d4dfe00a60722025-02-07T06:36:20ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812025-02-012554156410.5194/nhess-25-541-2025Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studiesE. Xoplaki0E. Xoplaki1F. Ellsäßer2F. Ellsäßer3J. Grieger4K. M. Nissen5J. G. Pinto6M. Augenstein7T.-C. Chen8T.-C. Chen9H. Feldmann10P. Friederichs11D. Gliksman12D. Gliksman13L. Goulier14K. Haustein15K. Haustein16J. Heinke17L. Jach18F. Knutzen19S. Kollet20J. Luterbacher21J. Luterbacher22N. Luther23S. Mohr24S. Mohr25C. Mudersbach26C. Müller27E. Rousi28F. Simon29L. Suarez-Gutierrez30L. Suarez-Gutierrez31L. Suarez-Gutierrez32S. Szemkus33S. M. Vallejo-Bernal34S. M. Vallejo-Bernal35S. M. Vallejo-Bernal36O. Vlachopoulos37F. Wolf38Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, GermanyCentre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, GermanyCentre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germanynow at: Department of Natural Resources, ITC – Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, Enschede, the NetherlandsInstitute of Meteorology, Free University of Berlin, Berlin, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology, Free University of Berlin, Berlin, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germanynow at: Moody's, London, UKInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, GermanyInstitute of Geosciences, University of Bonn, Bonn, GermanyInstitute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Dresden University of Technology, Tharandt, GermanyInstitute of Geography, Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, GermanyInstitute of Bio- and Geosciences, Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, GermanyClimate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germanynow at: Institute for Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyInstitute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, GermanyClimate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, GermanyInstitute of Bio- and Geosciences, Research Centre Jülich, Jülich, GermanyDepartment of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, GermanyCentre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, GermanyCentre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, GermanyCenter for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, GermanyInstitute of Hydraulic Engineering and Hydromechanics, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Bochum University of Applied Sciences, Bochum, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyInstitute of Hydraulic Engineering and Hydromechanics, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Bochum University of Applied Sciences, Bochum, GermanyMax-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germanynow at: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerlandnow at: Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, Paris, FranceInstitute of Geosciences, University of Bonn, Bonn, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyInstitute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germanynow at: Institute for Earth System Science and Remote Sensing, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, GermanyCentre for International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany<p>Europe frequently experiences a wide range of extreme events and natural hazards, including heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, cold spells, windstorms, and storm surges. Many of these events do not occur as single extreme events but rather show a multivariate character, known as compound events. We investigate the interactions between extreme weather events, their characteristics, and changes in their intensity and frequency, as well as uncertainties in the past, present, and future. We also explore their impacts on various socio-economic sectors in Germany and central Europe. This contribution highlights several case studies with special focus on 2018, a year marked by an exceptional sequence of compound events across large parts of Europe, resulting in severe impacts on human lives, ecosystems, and infrastructure. We provide new insights into the drivers of spatially and temporally compound events, such as heat and drought, and heavy precipitation combined with extreme winds, and their adverse effects on ecosystems and society, using large-scale atmospheric patterns. We also examine the interannual influence of droughts on surface water and the impact of water scarcity and heatwaves on agriculture and forests. We assess projected changes in compound events at different current and future global surface temperature levels, demonstrating the need for improved quantification of future extreme events to support adaptation planning. Finally, we address research gaps and future directions, stressing the importance of defining composite events primarily in terms of their impacts prior to their statistical characterisation.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/541/2025/nhess-25-541-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. Xoplaki E. Xoplaki F. Ellsäßer F. Ellsäßer J. Grieger K. M. Nissen J. G. Pinto M. Augenstein T.-C. Chen T.-C. Chen H. Feldmann P. Friederichs D. Gliksman D. Gliksman L. Goulier K. Haustein K. Haustein J. Heinke L. Jach F. Knutzen S. Kollet J. Luterbacher J. Luterbacher N. Luther S. Mohr S. Mohr C. Mudersbach C. Müller E. Rousi F. Simon L. Suarez-Gutierrez L. Suarez-Gutierrez L. Suarez-Gutierrez S. Szemkus S. M. Vallejo-Bernal S. M. Vallejo-Bernal S. M. Vallejo-Bernal O. Vlachopoulos F. Wolf Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies |
| title_full | Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies |
| title_fullStr | Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies |
| title_full_unstemmed | Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies |
| title_short | Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies |
| title_sort | compound events in germany in 2018 drivers and case studies |
| url | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/541/2025/nhess-25-541-2025.pdf |
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