Quantitative and qualitative risk assessment techniques in construction: insights from Nigeria
Abstract This study investigates the applicability of integrated risk assessment techniques in the Nigerian construction industry, using the Asokoro District Extension Project in Abuja as a case study. In a context characterized by frequent project delays, cost overruns, and scarce historical data,...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Discover Civil Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s44290-025-00279-9 |
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| Summary: | Abstract This study investigates the applicability of integrated risk assessment techniques in the Nigerian construction industry, using the Asokoro District Extension Project in Abuja as a case study. In a context characterized by frequent project delays, cost overruns, and scarce historical data, the research combines both quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate construction risks. Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of cost and time variations, while sensitivity analysis identified the most influential risk variables, and Fault Tree Analysis traced the root causes of potential project failures. The use of triangular distribution in simulations was justified by the limited availability of historical records, relying on expert estimates to define minimum, most likely, and maximum values. Additionally, impact-probability matrices were employed to prioritize risks in cases where quantitative inputs were insufficient. The findings highlight material price inflation, labor productivity, and weather-related disruptions as major risk factors. Despite data limitations, the integrated approach offered a comprehensive understanding of risk dynamics and supported the development of targeted mitigation strategies. The study concludes that combining these techniques can improve project resilience and enhance decision-making in resource-constrained environments like Nigeria’s construction sector. |
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| ISSN: | 2948-1546 |