Random Network Transmission and Countermeasures in Containing Global Spread of COVID-19-Alike Pandemic: A Hybrid Modelling Approach
Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the beginning of December 2019, there have been more than 28.69 million cumulative confirmed cases worldwide as of 12th September 2020, affecting over 200 countries and regions with more than 920,463 deaths. The COVID-19 pandemic has...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Complexity |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6703703 |
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| author | Yimin Zhou Jun Li Lingjian Ye Zuguo Chen Qingsong Luo Xiangdong Wu Haiyang Ni |
| author_facet | Yimin Zhou Jun Li Lingjian Ye Zuguo Chen Qingsong Luo Xiangdong Wu Haiyang Ni |
| author_sort | Yimin Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the beginning of December 2019, there have been more than 28.69 million cumulative confirmed cases worldwide as of 12th September 2020, affecting over 200 countries and regions with more than 920,463 deaths. The COVID-19 pandemic has been sweeping worldwide with unexpected rapidity. In this paper, a hybrid modelling strategy based on tessellation structure- (TS-) configured SEIR model is adopted to estimate the scale of the pandemic spread. Building on the data pertaining to the global pandemic transmission over the last six months around the world, key impact factors in the transmission and control procedure have been analysed, including isolation rate, number of the infected cases before taking prevention measures, degree of contact scope, and medical level, so as to capture the fundamental factor influencing the pandemic. The quantitative evaluation allowed us to illustrate the magnitude of risks of pandemic and to recommend appropriate national health policy of prevention measures for effectively controlling both intra- and interregional pandemic spread. Our modelling results clearly indicate that the early-stage preventive measures are the most effective action to be taken to contain the pandemic spread of the highly contagious nature of the COVID-19. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4f087e5ca6804187a2243c2e4eb4c44f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1076-2787 1099-0526 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Complexity |
| spelling | doaj-art-4f087e5ca6804187a2243c2e4eb4c44f2025-08-20T02:05:35ZengWileyComplexity1076-27871099-05262020-01-01202010.1155/2020/67037036703703Random Network Transmission and Countermeasures in Containing Global Spread of COVID-19-Alike Pandemic: A Hybrid Modelling ApproachYimin Zhou0Jun Li1Lingjian Ye2Zuguo Chen3Qingsong Luo4Xiangdong Wu5Haiyang Ni6Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong Province, ChinaSchool of International Relations, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, ChinaShenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong Province, ChinaShenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong Province, ChinaShenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong Province, ChinaShenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong Province, ChinaTianjin Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine Affiliated Hospital, Tianjin 300120, ChinaSince the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the beginning of December 2019, there have been more than 28.69 million cumulative confirmed cases worldwide as of 12th September 2020, affecting over 200 countries and regions with more than 920,463 deaths. The COVID-19 pandemic has been sweeping worldwide with unexpected rapidity. In this paper, a hybrid modelling strategy based on tessellation structure- (TS-) configured SEIR model is adopted to estimate the scale of the pandemic spread. Building on the data pertaining to the global pandemic transmission over the last six months around the world, key impact factors in the transmission and control procedure have been analysed, including isolation rate, number of the infected cases before taking prevention measures, degree of contact scope, and medical level, so as to capture the fundamental factor influencing the pandemic. The quantitative evaluation allowed us to illustrate the magnitude of risks of pandemic and to recommend appropriate national health policy of prevention measures for effectively controlling both intra- and interregional pandemic spread. Our modelling results clearly indicate that the early-stage preventive measures are the most effective action to be taken to contain the pandemic spread of the highly contagious nature of the COVID-19.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6703703 |
| spellingShingle | Yimin Zhou Jun Li Lingjian Ye Zuguo Chen Qingsong Luo Xiangdong Wu Haiyang Ni Random Network Transmission and Countermeasures in Containing Global Spread of COVID-19-Alike Pandemic: A Hybrid Modelling Approach Complexity |
| title | Random Network Transmission and Countermeasures in Containing Global Spread of COVID-19-Alike Pandemic: A Hybrid Modelling Approach |
| title_full | Random Network Transmission and Countermeasures in Containing Global Spread of COVID-19-Alike Pandemic: A Hybrid Modelling Approach |
| title_fullStr | Random Network Transmission and Countermeasures in Containing Global Spread of COVID-19-Alike Pandemic: A Hybrid Modelling Approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Random Network Transmission and Countermeasures in Containing Global Spread of COVID-19-Alike Pandemic: A Hybrid Modelling Approach |
| title_short | Random Network Transmission and Countermeasures in Containing Global Spread of COVID-19-Alike Pandemic: A Hybrid Modelling Approach |
| title_sort | random network transmission and countermeasures in containing global spread of covid 19 alike pandemic a hybrid modelling approach |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6703703 |
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