A mathematical model of malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions and the implications on malaria interventions
Malaria remains a life-threatening disease that is endemic to many African countries. Currently, several malaria-endemic areas are also experiencing armed conflicts, exacerbating the challenges of disease control. In this study, we develop a compartmental mathematical model to study malaria transmis...
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Scientific African |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468227625002169 |
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| author | Mohamed Salah Alhaj Farai Nyabadza |
| author_facet | Mohamed Salah Alhaj Farai Nyabadza |
| author_sort | Mohamed Salah Alhaj |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Malaria remains a life-threatening disease that is endemic to many African countries. Currently, several malaria-endemic areas are also experiencing armed conflicts, exacerbating the challenges of disease control. In this study, we develop a compartmental mathematical model to study malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions, incorporating both malaria control interventions and the effects of armed conflicts. We analyse the model by examining the positivity of solutions, the feasible region, equilibrium points and their stability, and the basic reproduction number, R0. Our findings indicate that the model exhibits a forward bifurcation, implying that malaria transmission can be eliminated when R0<1 but persists and spreads when R0>1. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that increasing malaria control interventions effectively reduce R0, whereas conflict-related parameters contribute to its rise. Additionally, we fit the model to World Health Organisation (WHO) data from three malaria-endemic countries, and we found a Root Mean Square Error between the data and model outcome with values 0.0015 for Nigeria, 0.0055 for Sudan, and 0.0016 for DRC. The simulations highlight the impact of intensified malaria control efforts and the detrimental influence of armed conflict on malaria transmission dynamics. The sensitivity analysis results align with numerical findings, reinforcing the significance of intervention strategies. Furthermore, our study underscores the role of asymptomatic carriers in sustaining malaria transmission. The results of this paper have huge implications in providing recommendations on malaria control in conflict-affected areas, emphasising the need for strengthened control measures and targeted interventions despite the conflicts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4e752f66a18b4f50bb9e1b3c7ee7dd7b |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2468-2276 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Scientific African |
| spelling | doaj-art-4e752f66a18b4f50bb9e1b3c7ee7dd7b2025-08-20T02:26:09ZengElsevierScientific African2468-22762025-06-0128e0274610.1016/j.sciaf.2025.e02746A mathematical model of malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions and the implications on malaria interventionsMohamed Salah Alhaj0Farai Nyabadza1Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park Kingsway Campus, PO Box 524, 2006, Johannesburg, 2092, Gauteng, South AfricaDepartment of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park Kingsway Campus, PO Box 524, 2006, Johannesburg, 2092, Gauteng, South Africa; Institute of Applied Research and Technology, Emirates Aviation University, Dubai International Academic City, Dubai, Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Corresponding author at: Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park Kingsway Campus, PO Box 524, 2006, Johannesburg, 2092, Gauteng, South Africa.Malaria remains a life-threatening disease that is endemic to many African countries. Currently, several malaria-endemic areas are also experiencing armed conflicts, exacerbating the challenges of disease control. In this study, we develop a compartmental mathematical model to study malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions, incorporating both malaria control interventions and the effects of armed conflicts. We analyse the model by examining the positivity of solutions, the feasible region, equilibrium points and their stability, and the basic reproduction number, R0. Our findings indicate that the model exhibits a forward bifurcation, implying that malaria transmission can be eliminated when R0<1 but persists and spreads when R0>1. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that increasing malaria control interventions effectively reduce R0, whereas conflict-related parameters contribute to its rise. Additionally, we fit the model to World Health Organisation (WHO) data from three malaria-endemic countries, and we found a Root Mean Square Error between the data and model outcome with values 0.0015 for Nigeria, 0.0055 for Sudan, and 0.0016 for DRC. The simulations highlight the impact of intensified malaria control efforts and the detrimental influence of armed conflict on malaria transmission dynamics. The sensitivity analysis results align with numerical findings, reinforcing the significance of intervention strategies. Furthermore, our study underscores the role of asymptomatic carriers in sustaining malaria transmission. The results of this paper have huge implications in providing recommendations on malaria control in conflict-affected areas, emphasising the need for strengthened control measures and targeted interventions despite the conflicts.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468227625002169MalariaArmed conflictsMalaria interventionsModellingBasic reproduction numberStability analysis |
| spellingShingle | Mohamed Salah Alhaj Farai Nyabadza A mathematical model of malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions and the implications on malaria interventions Scientific African Malaria Armed conflicts Malaria interventions Modelling Basic reproduction number Stability analysis |
| title | A mathematical model of malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions and the implications on malaria interventions |
| title_full | A mathematical model of malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions and the implications on malaria interventions |
| title_fullStr | A mathematical model of malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions and the implications on malaria interventions |
| title_full_unstemmed | A mathematical model of malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions and the implications on malaria interventions |
| title_short | A mathematical model of malaria transmission in conflict-affected regions and the implications on malaria interventions |
| title_sort | mathematical model of malaria transmission in conflict affected regions and the implications on malaria interventions |
| topic | Malaria Armed conflicts Malaria interventions Modelling Basic reproduction number Stability analysis |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468227625002169 |
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