Climate variability, population growth, and globalization impacting food security in Pakistan
Abstract Global hunger has increased recently, returning to levels observed a decade ago. Climate change is identified as a key factor contributing to these increases and is a significant cause of severe food crises. When combined with population growth and globalization, future climate variability...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-88916-2 |
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| author | Sohail Abbas Ahtisham Haider Shazia Kousar Heli Lu Siqi Lu Fang Liu Huan Li Changhong Miao Wanfu Feng Muhammad Irfan Ahamad Muhammad Sajid Mehmood Rana Muhammad Zulqarnain |
| author_facet | Sohail Abbas Ahtisham Haider Shazia Kousar Heli Lu Siqi Lu Fang Liu Huan Li Changhong Miao Wanfu Feng Muhammad Irfan Ahamad Muhammad Sajid Mehmood Rana Muhammad Zulqarnain |
| author_sort | Sohail Abbas |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Global hunger has increased recently, returning to levels observed a decade ago. Climate change is identified as a key factor contributing to these increases and is a significant cause of severe food crises. When combined with population growth and globalization, future climate variability is expected to significantly affect global food security. This study examined the influence of climate variability, globalization, and population growth on food security (FS) in Pakistan from 1995 to 2023. Food security data was sourced from the Food and Agricultural Organization, and globalization data was obtained from the KOF Globalization Index. Datasets on climate variability, population growth, unemployment, and inflation were collected from the World Development Indicators. A two-layer principal component analysis was utilized to develop the food security index. Multivariate Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity was used to assess the impact of globalization, population growth, and climate variability on food security. All indexed components explained more than 50% of the variance, resulting in a food security eigenvalue of 3.603 with a 0.901 proportion. The findings indicated that population growth and climate variability significantly negatively affect Pakistan’s food security. Furthermore, the study found that globalization notably mitigates the adverse effects of climate variability and population growth on food security. This research may help alleviate the risk of future undernourishment, reverse current trends of escalating food insecurity, and support the sustainable development goal of eliminating global hunger by 2030. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4e68fdb909a94ef9bbdf2c2d4c04d1f6 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-4e68fdb909a94ef9bbdf2c2d4c04d1f62025-02-09T12:32:57ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-02-0115112010.1038/s41598-025-88916-2Climate variability, population growth, and globalization impacting food security in PakistanSohail Abbas0Ahtisham Haider1Shazia Kousar2Heli Lu3Siqi Lu4Fang Liu5Huan Li6Changhong Miao7Wanfu Feng8Muhammad Irfan Ahamad9Muhammad Sajid Mehmood10Rana Muhammad Zulqarnain11College of Geographical Sciences, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan UniversityCollege of Business Administration and Economics, Dankook UniversityDepartment of economics, Lahore college for Women UniversityCollege of Geographical Sciences, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan UniversityDepartment of Geography, Sustainability, Community, and Urban Studies, University of ConnecticutCollege of Geographical Sciences, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan UniversityCollege of Geographical Sciences, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan UniversityCollege of Geographical Sciences, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan UniversityThe Forest Science Research Institute of XinyangCollege of Geographical Sciences, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan UniversityCollege of Geographical Sciences, Faculty of Geographical Science and Engineering, Henan UniversityDepartment of Mathematics, Saveetha School of Engineering, SIMATSAbstract Global hunger has increased recently, returning to levels observed a decade ago. Climate change is identified as a key factor contributing to these increases and is a significant cause of severe food crises. When combined with population growth and globalization, future climate variability is expected to significantly affect global food security. This study examined the influence of climate variability, globalization, and population growth on food security (FS) in Pakistan from 1995 to 2023. Food security data was sourced from the Food and Agricultural Organization, and globalization data was obtained from the KOF Globalization Index. Datasets on climate variability, population growth, unemployment, and inflation were collected from the World Development Indicators. A two-layer principal component analysis was utilized to develop the food security index. Multivariate Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity was used to assess the impact of globalization, population growth, and climate variability on food security. All indexed components explained more than 50% of the variance, resulting in a food security eigenvalue of 3.603 with a 0.901 proportion. The findings indicated that population growth and climate variability significantly negatively affect Pakistan’s food security. Furthermore, the study found that globalization notably mitigates the adverse effects of climate variability and population growth on food security. This research may help alleviate the risk of future undernourishment, reverse current trends of escalating food insecurity, and support the sustainable development goal of eliminating global hunger by 2030.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-88916-2GlobalizationFood securityClimate variabilityPopulation growthInflationGARCH |
| spellingShingle | Sohail Abbas Ahtisham Haider Shazia Kousar Heli Lu Siqi Lu Fang Liu Huan Li Changhong Miao Wanfu Feng Muhammad Irfan Ahamad Muhammad Sajid Mehmood Rana Muhammad Zulqarnain Climate variability, population growth, and globalization impacting food security in Pakistan Scientific Reports Globalization Food security Climate variability Population growth Inflation GARCH |
| title | Climate variability, population growth, and globalization impacting food security in Pakistan |
| title_full | Climate variability, population growth, and globalization impacting food security in Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | Climate variability, population growth, and globalization impacting food security in Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate variability, population growth, and globalization impacting food security in Pakistan |
| title_short | Climate variability, population growth, and globalization impacting food security in Pakistan |
| title_sort | climate variability population growth and globalization impacting food security in pakistan |
| topic | Globalization Food security Climate variability Population growth Inflation GARCH |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-88916-2 |
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