Disruption of Drought Teleconnections Between ENSO‐Influenced Regions Around 1700 CE
Abstract Our understanding of pre‐modern El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is reliant on proxy records, often distant from the center of ENSO activity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Here, we assess the relationship between reconstructed soil moisture in four distant ENSO‐influenced r...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115600 |
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| author | Max C. A. Torbenson David W. Stahle Edward R. Cook Benjamin I. Cook Ulf Büntgen Feng Chen Ernesto Tejedor James H. Stagge Miroslav Trnka Dorian J. Burnette Weipeng Yue Jan Esper |
| author_facet | Max C. A. Torbenson David W. Stahle Edward R. Cook Benjamin I. Cook Ulf Büntgen Feng Chen Ernesto Tejedor James H. Stagge Miroslav Trnka Dorian J. Burnette Weipeng Yue Jan Esper |
| author_sort | Max C. A. Torbenson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Our understanding of pre‐modern El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is reliant on proxy records, often distant from the center of ENSO activity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Here, we assess the relationship between reconstructed soil moisture in four distant ENSO‐influenced regions over the past 400 years. A major breakdown in the teleconnection of regional drought conditions in Asia, Eastern Australia, and North America is identified around 1700 CE. The statistically significant decline in inter‐series correlations (p < 0.01) represents a previously unknown aspect of global hydroclimate dynamics. We hypothesize that the disruption was driven by ENSO weakening and/or by a large‐scale multi‐decadal reconfiguration of ocean‐atmosphere circulation. Data assimilation estimates of soil moisture from the same regions fail to produce results of the same magnitude, potentially due to an overreliance of ENSO influence on the boundaries of spatial covariance in the underlying climate models. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4e4bdd53850f4d379d9d6bd85c72a83b |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-4e4bdd53850f4d379d9d6bd85c72a83b2025-08-20T02:46:20ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-07-015214n/an/a10.1029/2025GL115600Disruption of Drought Teleconnections Between ENSO‐Influenced Regions Around 1700 CEMax C. A. Torbenson0David W. Stahle1Edward R. Cook2Benjamin I. Cook3Ulf Büntgen4Feng Chen5Ernesto Tejedor6James H. Stagge7Miroslav Trnka8Dorian J. Burnette9Weipeng Yue10Jan Esper11Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg Universität Mainz GermanyDepartment of Geoscience University of Arkansas Fayetteville AR USALamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University New York NY USALamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University New York NY USADepartment of Geography University of Cambridge Cambridge UKInstitute of International Rivers and Eco‐Security Yunnan University Kunming ChinaDepartment of Geology National Museum of Natural Sciences – Spanish Research Council Madrid SpainDepartment of Civil Environmental and Geodetic Engineering Ohio State University Columbus OH USAGlobal Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences Brno Czech RepublicDepartment of Earth Sciences University of Memphis Memphis TN USAInstitute of International Rivers and Eco‐Security Yunnan University Kunming ChinaDepartment of Geography Johannes Gutenberg Universität Mainz GermanyAbstract Our understanding of pre‐modern El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is reliant on proxy records, often distant from the center of ENSO activity in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Here, we assess the relationship between reconstructed soil moisture in four distant ENSO‐influenced regions over the past 400 years. A major breakdown in the teleconnection of regional drought conditions in Asia, Eastern Australia, and North America is identified around 1700 CE. The statistically significant decline in inter‐series correlations (p < 0.01) represents a previously unknown aspect of global hydroclimate dynamics. We hypothesize that the disruption was driven by ENSO weakening and/or by a large‐scale multi‐decadal reconfiguration of ocean‐atmosphere circulation. Data assimilation estimates of soil moisture from the same regions fail to produce results of the same magnitude, potentially due to an overreliance of ENSO influence on the boundaries of spatial covariance in the underlying climate models.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115600paleoclimateteleconnectiondrought dynamicsENSO variability |
| spellingShingle | Max C. A. Torbenson David W. Stahle Edward R. Cook Benjamin I. Cook Ulf Büntgen Feng Chen Ernesto Tejedor James H. Stagge Miroslav Trnka Dorian J. Burnette Weipeng Yue Jan Esper Disruption of Drought Teleconnections Between ENSO‐Influenced Regions Around 1700 CE Geophysical Research Letters paleoclimate teleconnection drought dynamics ENSO variability |
| title | Disruption of Drought Teleconnections Between ENSO‐Influenced Regions Around 1700 CE |
| title_full | Disruption of Drought Teleconnections Between ENSO‐Influenced Regions Around 1700 CE |
| title_fullStr | Disruption of Drought Teleconnections Between ENSO‐Influenced Regions Around 1700 CE |
| title_full_unstemmed | Disruption of Drought Teleconnections Between ENSO‐Influenced Regions Around 1700 CE |
| title_short | Disruption of Drought Teleconnections Between ENSO‐Influenced Regions Around 1700 CE |
| title_sort | disruption of drought teleconnections between enso influenced regions around 1700 ce |
| topic | paleoclimate teleconnection drought dynamics ENSO variability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115600 |
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