Rising temperatures trigger warming-wetting conditions in the East River Basin, China
Study region: The East River Basin (ERB) is located at the junction of the Western Pacific Ocean, the South China Sea, and Eurasia. Study focus: In 2011–2012, the ERB suffered severe droughts in all four seasons, so the wetting and/or drying tendency of the ERB had aroused widespread concern. Based...
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825004021 |
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| author | Chang Lu Da Liu Qiang Zhang Chong-Yu Xu Jianfeng Li Gang Wang Xihui Gu Deliang Sun Vijay P. Singh |
| author_facet | Chang Lu Da Liu Qiang Zhang Chong-Yu Xu Jianfeng Li Gang Wang Xihui Gu Deliang Sun Vijay P. Singh |
| author_sort | Chang Lu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: The East River Basin (ERB) is located at the junction of the Western Pacific Ocean, the South China Sea, and Eurasia. Study focus: In 2011–2012, the ERB suffered severe droughts in all four seasons, so the wetting and/or drying tendency of the ERB had aroused widespread concern. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis and CMIP6 multi-model datasets, we used a Lagrangian trajectory model to unravel precipitation, temperature, and evaporation changes during the historical period 1981–2023 and predict wetting and/or drying tendencies (measured by precipitation minus evaporation, PME) during the future period 2024–2099. New hydrological insight for the region: During the historical period, average annual precipitation decreased (-10.3 mm/a), evapotranspiration increased slightly (0.87 mm/a), and air temperature increased significantly (0.29°C/10a). We found that precipitation decreased over the northern and central ERB and evapotranspiration increased over the west to 115°E, while temperature increased over the eastern ERB, resulting in a warmer and drier state over the entire ERB. External water vapor input is the prime driver of precipitation change (accounting for 79 % of the total), mainly from the North Pacific Ocean (31 %) and the Indian Ocean (26 %). The net water vapor fluxes declined in the late 20th century and peaked in 2006, and then decreased rapidly until 2023, wherein internal water cycle contributed to 21 % of precipitation change. Under the 1.5°C warming scenario, ERB will be in a warming-drying state, while under higher warming levels (2°C, 3°C, 4°C warming scenarios), ERB will be in a warming-wetting tendency. These findings can provide an important reference for basin-scale water resources management and mitigation of water issues in the context of climate warming. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4e364e29a4654015b652e1b6b7a86d4d |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-4e364e29a4654015b652e1b6b7a86d4d2025-08-20T02:50:03ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-08-016010257710.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102577Rising temperatures trigger warming-wetting conditions in the East River Basin, ChinaChang Lu0Da Liu1Qiang Zhang2Chong-Yu Xu3Jianfeng Li4Gang Wang5Xihui Gu6Deliang Sun7Vijay P. Singh8College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, ChinaGuangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Guangzhou 510635; Corresponding authors.Advanced Interdisciplinary Institute of Environment and Ecology, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Wastewater Information Analysis and Early Warning, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, China; Corresponding authors.Department of Geosciences and Hydrology, University of Oslo, Oslo, NorwayDepartment of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, ChinaGuangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Guangzhou 510635Department of Geography, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078School of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing, ChinaDepartment of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA; National Water and Energy Center, UAE University, Al Ain, United Arab EmiratesStudy region: The East River Basin (ERB) is located at the junction of the Western Pacific Ocean, the South China Sea, and Eurasia. Study focus: In 2011–2012, the ERB suffered severe droughts in all four seasons, so the wetting and/or drying tendency of the ERB had aroused widespread concern. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis and CMIP6 multi-model datasets, we used a Lagrangian trajectory model to unravel precipitation, temperature, and evaporation changes during the historical period 1981–2023 and predict wetting and/or drying tendencies (measured by precipitation minus evaporation, PME) during the future period 2024–2099. New hydrological insight for the region: During the historical period, average annual precipitation decreased (-10.3 mm/a), evapotranspiration increased slightly (0.87 mm/a), and air temperature increased significantly (0.29°C/10a). We found that precipitation decreased over the northern and central ERB and evapotranspiration increased over the west to 115°E, while temperature increased over the eastern ERB, resulting in a warmer and drier state over the entire ERB. External water vapor input is the prime driver of precipitation change (accounting for 79 % of the total), mainly from the North Pacific Ocean (31 %) and the Indian Ocean (26 %). The net water vapor fluxes declined in the late 20th century and peaked in 2006, and then decreased rapidly until 2023, wherein internal water cycle contributed to 21 % of precipitation change. Under the 1.5°C warming scenario, ERB will be in a warming-drying state, while under higher warming levels (2°C, 3°C, 4°C warming scenarios), ERB will be in a warming-wetting tendency. These findings can provide an important reference for basin-scale water resources management and mitigation of water issues in the context of climate warming.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825004021East River BasinClimate changeWarming-wetting transitionWater vapor transportPrecipitation minus evaporation |
| spellingShingle | Chang Lu Da Liu Qiang Zhang Chong-Yu Xu Jianfeng Li Gang Wang Xihui Gu Deliang Sun Vijay P. Singh Rising temperatures trigger warming-wetting conditions in the East River Basin, China Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies East River Basin Climate change Warming-wetting transition Water vapor transport Precipitation minus evaporation |
| title | Rising temperatures trigger warming-wetting conditions in the East River Basin, China |
| title_full | Rising temperatures trigger warming-wetting conditions in the East River Basin, China |
| title_fullStr | Rising temperatures trigger warming-wetting conditions in the East River Basin, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rising temperatures trigger warming-wetting conditions in the East River Basin, China |
| title_short | Rising temperatures trigger warming-wetting conditions in the East River Basin, China |
| title_sort | rising temperatures trigger warming wetting conditions in the east river basin china |
| topic | East River Basin Climate change Warming-wetting transition Water vapor transport Precipitation minus evaporation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825004021 |
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