Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates
Abstract Volcanic forcing, a major natural source of climate variability, represents a challenge for current climate modeling because of the unpredictability and specificity of individual eruptions, and because of the complexity of processes linking the eruption to the climate response. Volcanic for...
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| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105482 |
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| author | D. Zanchettin |
| author_facet | D. Zanchettin |
| author_sort | D. Zanchettin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Volcanic forcing, a major natural source of climate variability, represents a challenge for current climate modeling because of the unpredictability and specificity of individual eruptions, and because of the complexity of processes linking the eruption to the climate response. Volcanic forcing is largely underrepresented in available future climate projections, which is a critical problem. The study by Man Mei Chim and Colleagues (Chim et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103743) tackles this known unknown and reveals how climatically relevant volcanic activity may be stronger than currently thought in a future warmer climate, enhancing uncertainty of climate projections. The study exemplifies the profound implications of inaccuracies within simplified climate scenarios and motivates new research on volcanically forced climate variability. It also arouses some thoughts on climate uncertainty communication. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4e17c2d478c94da996e27ba763ab7a02 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-4e17c2d478c94da996e27ba763ab7a022025-08-20T03:06:04ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072023-09-015017n/an/a10.1029/2023GL105482Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future ClimatesD. Zanchettin0Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics University Ca’ Foscari of Venice Mestre ItalyAbstract Volcanic forcing, a major natural source of climate variability, represents a challenge for current climate modeling because of the unpredictability and specificity of individual eruptions, and because of the complexity of processes linking the eruption to the climate response. Volcanic forcing is largely underrepresented in available future climate projections, which is a critical problem. The study by Man Mei Chim and Colleagues (Chim et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103743) tackles this known unknown and reveals how climatically relevant volcanic activity may be stronger than currently thought in a future warmer climate, enhancing uncertainty of climate projections. The study exemplifies the profound implications of inaccuracies within simplified climate scenarios and motivates new research on volcanically forced climate variability. It also arouses some thoughts on climate uncertainty communication.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105482volcanic forcingclimate projectionsuncertaintyclimate modelscommunication |
| spellingShingle | D. Zanchettin Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates Geophysical Research Letters volcanic forcing climate projections uncertainty climate models communication |
| title | Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates |
| title_full | Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates |
| title_fullStr | Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates |
| title_full_unstemmed | Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates |
| title_short | Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates |
| title_sort | volcanic eruptions a source of irreducible uncertainty for future climates |
| topic | volcanic forcing climate projections uncertainty climate models communication |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105482 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dzanchettin volcaniceruptionsasourceofirreducibleuncertaintyforfutureclimates |