Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates

Abstract Volcanic forcing, a major natural source of climate variability, represents a challenge for current climate modeling because of the unpredictability and specificity of individual eruptions, and because of the complexity of processes linking the eruption to the climate response. Volcanic for...

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Main Author: D. Zanchettin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2023-09-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105482
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author D. Zanchettin
author_facet D. Zanchettin
author_sort D. Zanchettin
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Volcanic forcing, a major natural source of climate variability, represents a challenge for current climate modeling because of the unpredictability and specificity of individual eruptions, and because of the complexity of processes linking the eruption to the climate response. Volcanic forcing is largely underrepresented in available future climate projections, which is a critical problem. The study by Man Mei Chim and Colleagues (Chim et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103743) tackles this known unknown and reveals how climatically relevant volcanic activity may be stronger than currently thought in a future warmer climate, enhancing uncertainty of climate projections. The study exemplifies the profound implications of inaccuracies within simplified climate scenarios and motivates new research on volcanically forced climate variability. It also arouses some thoughts on climate uncertainty communication.
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spelling doaj-art-4e17c2d478c94da996e27ba763ab7a022025-08-20T03:06:04ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072023-09-015017n/an/a10.1029/2023GL105482Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future ClimatesD. Zanchettin0Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics University Ca’ Foscari of Venice Mestre ItalyAbstract Volcanic forcing, a major natural source of climate variability, represents a challenge for current climate modeling because of the unpredictability and specificity of individual eruptions, and because of the complexity of processes linking the eruption to the climate response. Volcanic forcing is largely underrepresented in available future climate projections, which is a critical problem. The study by Man Mei Chim and Colleagues (Chim et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103743) tackles this known unknown and reveals how climatically relevant volcanic activity may be stronger than currently thought in a future warmer climate, enhancing uncertainty of climate projections. The study exemplifies the profound implications of inaccuracies within simplified climate scenarios and motivates new research on volcanically forced climate variability. It also arouses some thoughts on climate uncertainty communication.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105482volcanic forcingclimate projectionsuncertaintyclimate modelscommunication
spellingShingle D. Zanchettin
Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates
Geophysical Research Letters
volcanic forcing
climate projections
uncertainty
climate models
communication
title Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates
title_full Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates
title_fullStr Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates
title_full_unstemmed Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates
title_short Volcanic Eruptions: A Source of Irreducible Uncertainty for Future Climates
title_sort volcanic eruptions a source of irreducible uncertainty for future climates
topic volcanic forcing
climate projections
uncertainty
climate models
communication
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105482
work_keys_str_mv AT dzanchettin volcaniceruptionsasourceofirreducibleuncertaintyforfutureclimates