Meta‐Analysis of Recurrence‐Free Survival or Disease‐Free Survival as a Potential Surrogate Endpoint for Overall Survival in Esophageal Cancer Trials

ABSTRACT Background Cancer trials increasingly use surrogate endpoints, but it is unclear how well recurrence‐free survival (RFS) or disease‐free survival (DFS) specifically predict overall survival (OS) in resectable esophageal cancer (EC). Methods A systematic literature review identified trials w...

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Main Authors: Uchechukwu Love Anyaduba, Oluwatosin Qawiyy Orababa, Zion Faye, Nazia Rashid, Jason Shafrin, Gregory Reardon
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-05-01
Series:Cancer Reports
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/cnr2.70195
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author Uchechukwu Love Anyaduba
Oluwatosin Qawiyy Orababa
Zion Faye
Nazia Rashid
Jason Shafrin
Gregory Reardon
author_facet Uchechukwu Love Anyaduba
Oluwatosin Qawiyy Orababa
Zion Faye
Nazia Rashid
Jason Shafrin
Gregory Reardon
author_sort Uchechukwu Love Anyaduba
collection DOAJ
description ABSTRACT Background Cancer trials increasingly use surrogate endpoints, but it is unclear how well recurrence‐free survival (RFS) or disease‐free survival (DFS) specifically predict overall survival (OS) in resectable esophageal cancer (EC). Methods A systematic literature review identified trials with RFS/DFS and OS endpoints. A meta‐analysis assessed RFS/DFS as surrogates for OS, estimating pooled hazard ratios (HRs) from trial HRs. Forest plots and heterogeneity tests showed effect sizes and pooled estimates. Unweighted linear regression and weighted sensitivity analysis estimated the correlation between OS and RFS/DFS, producing a regression plot. Results Of 975 articles identified, 11 met the criteria. The pooled HR for OS and RFS/DFS was 0.90 and 0.87, respectively. The primary analysis showed a strong Pearson correlation between RFS/DFS and OS (ρ = 0.89, p < 0.001). Conclusion Subject to known methodological limits, RFS/DFS was demonstrated to be a potentially suitable surrogate endpoint for OS in resectable EC.
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spelling doaj-art-4d8452cfd63e4aa9a5471eabcbf813322025-08-20T03:05:27ZengWileyCancer Reports2573-83482025-05-0185n/an/a10.1002/cnr2.70195Meta‐Analysis of Recurrence‐Free Survival or Disease‐Free Survival as a Potential Surrogate Endpoint for Overall Survival in Esophageal Cancer TrialsUchechukwu Love Anyaduba0Oluwatosin Qawiyy Orababa1Zion Faye2Nazia Rashid3Jason Shafrin4Gregory Reardon5Henry E. Riggs School of Applied Life Sciences Keck Graduate Institute Claremont California USASchool of Life Sciences, Gibbet Hill Campus University of Warwick Coventry UKHenry E. Riggs School of Applied Life Sciences Keck Graduate Institute Claremont California USASchool of Pharmacy Keck Graduate Institute Claremont California USACenter for Healthcare Economics and Policy FTI Consulting Los Angeles California USASchool of Pharmacy Keck Graduate Institute Claremont California USAABSTRACT Background Cancer trials increasingly use surrogate endpoints, but it is unclear how well recurrence‐free survival (RFS) or disease‐free survival (DFS) specifically predict overall survival (OS) in resectable esophageal cancer (EC). Methods A systematic literature review identified trials with RFS/DFS and OS endpoints. A meta‐analysis assessed RFS/DFS as surrogates for OS, estimating pooled hazard ratios (HRs) from trial HRs. Forest plots and heterogeneity tests showed effect sizes and pooled estimates. Unweighted linear regression and weighted sensitivity analysis estimated the correlation between OS and RFS/DFS, producing a regression plot. Results Of 975 articles identified, 11 met the criteria. The pooled HR for OS and RFS/DFS was 0.90 and 0.87, respectively. The primary analysis showed a strong Pearson correlation between RFS/DFS and OS (ρ = 0.89, p < 0.001). Conclusion Subject to known methodological limits, RFS/DFS was demonstrated to be a potentially suitable surrogate endpoint for OS in resectable EC.https://doi.org/10.1002/cnr2.70195disease‐free survivalesophageal canceresophageal neoplasmslocalneoplasm recurrencerandomized controlled trial
spellingShingle Uchechukwu Love Anyaduba
Oluwatosin Qawiyy Orababa
Zion Faye
Nazia Rashid
Jason Shafrin
Gregory Reardon
Meta‐Analysis of Recurrence‐Free Survival or Disease‐Free Survival as a Potential Surrogate Endpoint for Overall Survival in Esophageal Cancer Trials
Cancer Reports
disease‐free survival
esophageal cancer
esophageal neoplasms
local
neoplasm recurrence
randomized controlled trial
title Meta‐Analysis of Recurrence‐Free Survival or Disease‐Free Survival as a Potential Surrogate Endpoint for Overall Survival in Esophageal Cancer Trials
title_full Meta‐Analysis of Recurrence‐Free Survival or Disease‐Free Survival as a Potential Surrogate Endpoint for Overall Survival in Esophageal Cancer Trials
title_fullStr Meta‐Analysis of Recurrence‐Free Survival or Disease‐Free Survival as a Potential Surrogate Endpoint for Overall Survival in Esophageal Cancer Trials
title_full_unstemmed Meta‐Analysis of Recurrence‐Free Survival or Disease‐Free Survival as a Potential Surrogate Endpoint for Overall Survival in Esophageal Cancer Trials
title_short Meta‐Analysis of Recurrence‐Free Survival or Disease‐Free Survival as a Potential Surrogate Endpoint for Overall Survival in Esophageal Cancer Trials
title_sort meta analysis of recurrence free survival or disease free survival as a potential surrogate endpoint for overall survival in esophageal cancer trials
topic disease‐free survival
esophageal cancer
esophageal neoplasms
local
neoplasm recurrence
randomized controlled trial
url https://doi.org/10.1002/cnr2.70195
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