Analyzing and Predicting LUCC and Carbon Storage Changes in Xinjiang’s Arid Ecosystems Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal
Land use/cover change (LUCC) significantly alters the carbon storage capacity of ecosystems with a profound impact on global climate change. The influence of land use changes on carbon storage capacity and the projection of future carbon stock changes under different scenarios are essential for achi...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2024-11-01
|
| Series: | Remote Sensing |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/23/4439 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1846123902631149568 |
|---|---|
| author | Jie Song Xin He Fei Zhang Xu Ma Chi Yung Jim Brian Alan Johnson Ngai Weng Chan |
| author_facet | Jie Song Xin He Fei Zhang Xu Ma Chi Yung Jim Brian Alan Johnson Ngai Weng Chan |
| author_sort | Jie Song |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Land use/cover change (LUCC) significantly alters the carbon storage capacity of ecosystems with a profound impact on global climate change. The influence of land use changes on carbon storage capacity and the projection of future carbon stock changes under different scenarios are essential for achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study applied the PLUS-InVEST model to predict the land use pattern in China’s arid Xinjiang Region in 2020–2050. The model assessed the carbon stock under four scenarios. Analysis of the historical LUCC data showed that the carbon storage in Xinjiang in 2000–2020 in five-year intervals was 85.69 × 10<sup>8</sup>, 85.79 × 10<sup>8</sup>, 85.87 × 10<sup>8</sup>, 86.01 × 10<sup>8</sup>, and 86.71 × 10<sup>8</sup> t. The rise in carbon sequestration capacity in the study area, attributable to the expansion of cropland, water, and unused land areas, brought a concomitant increment in the regional carbon storage by 1.03 × 10<sup>8</sup> t. However, prediction results for 2030–2050 showed that carbon storage capacity under the four scenarios would decrease by 0.11 × 10<sup>8</sup> and increase by 1.2 × 10<sup>8</sup>, 0.98 × 10<sup>8</sup> t, and 1.28 × 10<sup>8</sup> t, respectively. The findings indicate that different land transfer modes will significantly affect Xinjiang’s carbon storage quantity, distribution, and trend. This research informs the past, present, and future of carbon storage in arid ecosystems of Xinjiang. It offers a reference for Xinjiang’s development planning and informs the efforts to achieve the carbon peak and neutrality goals. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4d770b27a8164bce85ebca9b27cf755d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj-art-4d770b27a8164bce85ebca9b27cf755d2024-12-13T16:30:51ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922024-11-011623443910.3390/rs16234439Analyzing and Predicting LUCC and Carbon Storage Changes in Xinjiang’s Arid Ecosystems Under the Carbon Neutrality GoalJie Song0Xin He1Fei Zhang2Xu Ma3Chi Yung Jim4Brian Alan Johnson5Ngai Weng Chan6College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, ChinaCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, ChinaCollege of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, ChinaDepartment of Social Sciences and Policy Studies, Education University of Hong Kong, Tai Po, Hong Kong 999077, ChinaNatural Resources and Ecosystem Services Area, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama 2400115, Kanagawa, JapanGeoInformatic Unit, Geography Section, School of Humanities, University Sains Malaysia, Penang 11800, MalaysiaLand use/cover change (LUCC) significantly alters the carbon storage capacity of ecosystems with a profound impact on global climate change. The influence of land use changes on carbon storage capacity and the projection of future carbon stock changes under different scenarios are essential for achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study applied the PLUS-InVEST model to predict the land use pattern in China’s arid Xinjiang Region in 2020–2050. The model assessed the carbon stock under four scenarios. Analysis of the historical LUCC data showed that the carbon storage in Xinjiang in 2000–2020 in five-year intervals was 85.69 × 10<sup>8</sup>, 85.79 × 10<sup>8</sup>, 85.87 × 10<sup>8</sup>, 86.01 × 10<sup>8</sup>, and 86.71 × 10<sup>8</sup> t. The rise in carbon sequestration capacity in the study area, attributable to the expansion of cropland, water, and unused land areas, brought a concomitant increment in the regional carbon storage by 1.03 × 10<sup>8</sup> t. However, prediction results for 2030–2050 showed that carbon storage capacity under the four scenarios would decrease by 0.11 × 10<sup>8</sup> and increase by 1.2 × 10<sup>8</sup>, 0.98 × 10<sup>8</sup> t, and 1.28 × 10<sup>8</sup> t, respectively. The findings indicate that different land transfer modes will significantly affect Xinjiang’s carbon storage quantity, distribution, and trend. This research informs the past, present, and future of carbon storage in arid ecosystems of Xinjiang. It offers a reference for Xinjiang’s development planning and informs the efforts to achieve the carbon peak and neutrality goals.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/23/4439LUCCCA-MarkovPLUS-InVESTmulti-scenario simulationcarbon storagecarbon peak and neutrality |
| spellingShingle | Jie Song Xin He Fei Zhang Xu Ma Chi Yung Jim Brian Alan Johnson Ngai Weng Chan Analyzing and Predicting LUCC and Carbon Storage Changes in Xinjiang’s Arid Ecosystems Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal Remote Sensing LUCC CA-Markov PLUS-InVEST multi-scenario simulation carbon storage carbon peak and neutrality |
| title | Analyzing and Predicting LUCC and Carbon Storage Changes in Xinjiang’s Arid Ecosystems Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal |
| title_full | Analyzing and Predicting LUCC and Carbon Storage Changes in Xinjiang’s Arid Ecosystems Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal |
| title_fullStr | Analyzing and Predicting LUCC and Carbon Storage Changes in Xinjiang’s Arid Ecosystems Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analyzing and Predicting LUCC and Carbon Storage Changes in Xinjiang’s Arid Ecosystems Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal |
| title_short | Analyzing and Predicting LUCC and Carbon Storage Changes in Xinjiang’s Arid Ecosystems Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal |
| title_sort | analyzing and predicting lucc and carbon storage changes in xinjiang s arid ecosystems under the carbon neutrality goal |
| topic | LUCC CA-Markov PLUS-InVEST multi-scenario simulation carbon storage carbon peak and neutrality |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/23/4439 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jiesong analyzingandpredictingluccandcarbonstoragechangesinxinjiangsaridecosystemsunderthecarbonneutralitygoal AT xinhe analyzingandpredictingluccandcarbonstoragechangesinxinjiangsaridecosystemsunderthecarbonneutralitygoal AT feizhang analyzingandpredictingluccandcarbonstoragechangesinxinjiangsaridecosystemsunderthecarbonneutralitygoal AT xuma analyzingandpredictingluccandcarbonstoragechangesinxinjiangsaridecosystemsunderthecarbonneutralitygoal AT chiyungjim analyzingandpredictingluccandcarbonstoragechangesinxinjiangsaridecosystemsunderthecarbonneutralitygoal AT brianalanjohnson analyzingandpredictingluccandcarbonstoragechangesinxinjiangsaridecosystemsunderthecarbonneutralitygoal AT ngaiwengchan analyzingandpredictingluccandcarbonstoragechangesinxinjiangsaridecosystemsunderthecarbonneutralitygoal |