Short‐term load forecasting facilitated by edge data centres: A coordinated edge‐cloud approach

Abstract Compared to load forecasting at the national level, two challenges arise in providing accurate forecasting for LV and MV networks: (1) customers within LV and MV networks are much less, implying greater volatility within those load profiles; (2) not all customers have smart metres. Particul...

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Main Authors: Junlong Li, Lurui Fang, Xiangyu Wei, Mengqiu Fang, Yue Xiang, Peipei You, Chao Zhang, Chenghong Gu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-12-01
Series:IET Smart Grid
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1049/stg2.12181
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author Junlong Li
Lurui Fang
Xiangyu Wei
Mengqiu Fang
Yue Xiang
Peipei You
Chao Zhang
Chenghong Gu
author_facet Junlong Li
Lurui Fang
Xiangyu Wei
Mengqiu Fang
Yue Xiang
Peipei You
Chao Zhang
Chenghong Gu
author_sort Junlong Li
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Compared to load forecasting at the national level, two challenges arise in providing accurate forecasting for LV and MV networks: (1) customers within LV and MV networks are much less, implying greater volatility within those load profiles; (2) not all customers have smart metres. Particularly, the two challenges would exacerbate forecasting performance under unexpected events, such as extreme weather and COVID‐19 outbreaks. To secure accurate short‐term load forecasting for LV and MV networks, this paper customised a Spatio‐Temporal Edge‐Cloud‐coordinated (STEC) approach on a loop training structure—LV networks to MV networks to LV networks. For each LV network, this approach utilises XGboost to learn the relationship between weather data, substation‐side loads, and a few accessible customer‐side load data to deliver rough forecasting. Then, it adopts the rough forecasting results and accessible data for all LV networks within an MV network to train the convolutional neural networks and gated recurrent unit (CNN‐GRU) network. This step provides load forecasting for MV networks and simultaneously refines load forecasting for LV networks by generating the interacting relationship between LV substations of different locations. Case studies reveal that the STEC approach successfully extrapolates the demand‐varying information from long‐term datasets and improves short‐term forecasting performance under both normal scenarios and newly occurring unexpected scenarios for LV and MV networks. The loop training structure halves the forecasting error, compared to classic methodology by utilising the local data only for MV networks.
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spelling doaj-art-4d573d2abebe4674a1eaa9b4d891a3132025-08-20T02:35:35ZengWileyIET Smart Grid2515-29472024-12-017682984210.1049/stg2.12181Short‐term load forecasting facilitated by edge data centres: A coordinated edge‐cloud approachJunlong Li0Lurui Fang1Xiangyu Wei2Mengqiu Fang3Yue Xiang4Peipei You5Chao Zhang6Chenghong Gu7State Grid Energy Research Institute Co. Ltd. Beijing ChinaSchool of Advanced Technology Xi’an Jiaotong‐Liverpool University Suzhou ChinaCollege of Electrical Engineering Sichuan University Chengdu ChinaCollege of Electrical Engineering Sichuan University Chengdu ChinaCollege of Electrical Engineering Sichuan University Chengdu ChinaState Grid Energy Research Institute Co. Ltd. Beijing ChinaState Grid Energy Research Institute Co. Ltd. Beijing ChinaDepartment of Electronic & Electrical Engineering University of Bath Bath UKAbstract Compared to load forecasting at the national level, two challenges arise in providing accurate forecasting for LV and MV networks: (1) customers within LV and MV networks are much less, implying greater volatility within those load profiles; (2) not all customers have smart metres. Particularly, the two challenges would exacerbate forecasting performance under unexpected events, such as extreme weather and COVID‐19 outbreaks. To secure accurate short‐term load forecasting for LV and MV networks, this paper customised a Spatio‐Temporal Edge‐Cloud‐coordinated (STEC) approach on a loop training structure—LV networks to MV networks to LV networks. For each LV network, this approach utilises XGboost to learn the relationship between weather data, substation‐side loads, and a few accessible customer‐side load data to deliver rough forecasting. Then, it adopts the rough forecasting results and accessible data for all LV networks within an MV network to train the convolutional neural networks and gated recurrent unit (CNN‐GRU) network. This step provides load forecasting for MV networks and simultaneously refines load forecasting for LV networks by generating the interacting relationship between LV substations of different locations. Case studies reveal that the STEC approach successfully extrapolates the demand‐varying information from long‐term datasets and improves short‐term forecasting performance under both normal scenarios and newly occurring unexpected scenarios for LV and MV networks. The loop training structure halves the forecasting error, compared to classic methodology by utilising the local data only for MV networks.https://doi.org/10.1049/stg2.12181artificial intelligence and data analyticsdistribution networksload forecasting
spellingShingle Junlong Li
Lurui Fang
Xiangyu Wei
Mengqiu Fang
Yue Xiang
Peipei You
Chao Zhang
Chenghong Gu
Short‐term load forecasting facilitated by edge data centres: A coordinated edge‐cloud approach
IET Smart Grid
artificial intelligence and data analytics
distribution networks
load forecasting
title Short‐term load forecasting facilitated by edge data centres: A coordinated edge‐cloud approach
title_full Short‐term load forecasting facilitated by edge data centres: A coordinated edge‐cloud approach
title_fullStr Short‐term load forecasting facilitated by edge data centres: A coordinated edge‐cloud approach
title_full_unstemmed Short‐term load forecasting facilitated by edge data centres: A coordinated edge‐cloud approach
title_short Short‐term load forecasting facilitated by edge data centres: A coordinated edge‐cloud approach
title_sort short term load forecasting facilitated by edge data centres a coordinated edge cloud approach
topic artificial intelligence and data analytics
distribution networks
load forecasting
url https://doi.org/10.1049/stg2.12181
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