Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable
Abstract Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76524-5 |
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| _version_ | 1850179854302969856 |
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| author | Spyros Tsiftsis Zuzana Štípková Marcel Rejmánek Pavel Kindlmann |
| author_facet | Spyros Tsiftsis Zuzana Štípková Marcel Rejmánek Pavel Kindlmann |
| author_sort | Spyros Tsiftsis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) based on expected climate. Here we explore the accuracy of such projections: we use orchid (Orchidaceae) recordings and environmental (mainly climatic) data from the years 1901–1950 in SDMs to predict maps of potential species distributions in 1980–2014. This should enable us to compare the predictions of species distributions in 1980–2014, based on records of species distribution in the years 1901–1950, with real data in the 1980–2014 period. We found that the predictions of the SDMs often differ from reality in this experiment. The results clearly indicate that SDM predictions of future species distributions as a reaction to climate change must be treated with caution. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4d5145d83ad0413cb12940b63f363003 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-4d5145d83ad0413cb12940b63f3630032025-08-20T02:18:24ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-10-0114111210.1038/s41598-024-76524-5Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliableSpyros Tsiftsis0Zuzana Štípková1Marcel Rejmánek2Pavel Kindlmann3Department of Forest and Natural Environment Sciences, Democritus University of ThraceGlobal Change Research Institute AS CRDepartment of Evolution and Ecology, University of CaliforniaGlobal Change Research Institute AS CRAbstract Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) based on expected climate. Here we explore the accuracy of such projections: we use orchid (Orchidaceae) recordings and environmental (mainly climatic) data from the years 1901–1950 in SDMs to predict maps of potential species distributions in 1980–2014. This should enable us to compare the predictions of species distributions in 1980–2014, based on records of species distribution in the years 1901–1950, with real data in the 1980–2014 period. We found that the predictions of the SDMs often differ from reality in this experiment. The results clearly indicate that SDM predictions of future species distributions as a reaction to climate change must be treated with caution.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76524-5 |
| spellingShingle | Spyros Tsiftsis Zuzana Štípková Marcel Rejmánek Pavel Kindlmann Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable Scientific Reports |
| title | Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable |
| title_full | Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable |
| title_fullStr | Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable |
| title_short | Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable |
| title_sort | predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76524-5 |
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