A Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit
The objective: to develop a predictive model for assessing the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).Subjects and Methods. This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of hospital mortality in patients admitted to ICU of V.P. Demikhov City Clinical...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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New Terra Publishing House
2022-02-01
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| Series: | Вестник анестезиологии и реаниматологии |
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| Online Access: | https://www.vair-journal.com/jour/article/view/621 |
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| author | A. N. Kuzovlev L. V. Ermokhina N. S. Melnikova L. B. Berikashvili M. Ya. Yadgarov K. K. Kadantseva N. I. Chaus S. N. Perekhodov T. S. Serkova V. V. Likhvantsev |
| author_facet | A. N. Kuzovlev L. V. Ermokhina N. S. Melnikova L. B. Berikashvili M. Ya. Yadgarov K. K. Kadantseva N. I. Chaus S. N. Perekhodov T. S. Serkova V. V. Likhvantsev |
| author_sort | A. N. Kuzovlev |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The objective: to develop a predictive model for assessing the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).Subjects and Methods. This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of hospital mortality in patients admitted to ICU of V.P. Demikhov City Clinical Hospital from March 6 to June 3, 2020.Results. Case histories of 403 patients were analyzed. In-hospital 30-day mortality among patients treated in ICU was 44.9% (181/403 patients). A multivariate analysis showed that significant predictors of death in patients with COVID-19 were the age of 60 years or more (adj. OR 3.84; 95% CI 1.56‒9.44, p = 0.003), COPD (adj. OR 2.35; 95% CI 1.12‒4.95, p = 0.024), peripheral artery diseases (adj. OR: 5.08; 95% CI 1.87‒13.76, p = 0.001) and CKD stage 3b and higher (adj. OR 4.58; 95% CI 2.36‒8.90, p < 0.001), LDH 300 IU/l or more (adj. OR 3.05; 95% CI 1.23‒7.58, p = 0.016), and CRP 200 mg/l or more (adj. OR 3.65; 95% CI 1.95‒6.85, p < 0.001). Predictive model quality: AUC = 0.811 [0.733‒0.874], p < 0.001.Conclusions. A nomogram to assess the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 has been developed. It includes the assessment of age, history of COPD, CKD stage 3b and higher, peripheral artery diseases, and monitoring of LDH and CRP. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4d1c2f64864042f1bd9143b7e23dbadc |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2078-5658 2541-8653 |
| language | Russian |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | New Terra Publishing House |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Вестник анестезиологии и реаниматологии |
| spelling | doaj-art-4d1c2f64864042f1bd9143b7e23dbadc2025-08-20T02:59:46ZrusNew Terra Publishing HouseВестник анестезиологии и реаниматологии2078-56582541-86532022-02-0119161710.21292/2078-5658-2022-19-1-6-17492A Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care UnitA. N. Kuzovlev0L. V. Ermokhina1N. S. Melnikova2L. B. Berikashvili3M. Ya. Yadgarov4K. K. Kadantseva5N. I. Chaus6S. N. Perekhodov7T. S. Serkova8V. V. Likhvantsev9V. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General ReanimatologyV. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General Reanimatology; V. P. Demikhov City Clinical HospitalV. P. Demikhov City Clinical HospitalV. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General ReanimatologyV. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General ReanimatologyV. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General ReanimatologyV. P. Demikhov City Clinical HospitalV. P. Demikhov City Clinical HospitalI. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical UniversityV. A. Negovsky National Research Institute of General Reanimatology; I. M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical UniversityThe objective: to develop a predictive model for assessing the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).Subjects and Methods. This was a single-center retrospective cohort study of hospital mortality in patients admitted to ICU of V.P. Demikhov City Clinical Hospital from March 6 to June 3, 2020.Results. Case histories of 403 patients were analyzed. In-hospital 30-day mortality among patients treated in ICU was 44.9% (181/403 patients). A multivariate analysis showed that significant predictors of death in patients with COVID-19 were the age of 60 years or more (adj. OR 3.84; 95% CI 1.56‒9.44, p = 0.003), COPD (adj. OR 2.35; 95% CI 1.12‒4.95, p = 0.024), peripheral artery diseases (adj. OR: 5.08; 95% CI 1.87‒13.76, p = 0.001) and CKD stage 3b and higher (adj. OR 4.58; 95% CI 2.36‒8.90, p < 0.001), LDH 300 IU/l or more (adj. OR 3.05; 95% CI 1.23‒7.58, p = 0.016), and CRP 200 mg/l or more (adj. OR 3.65; 95% CI 1.95‒6.85, p < 0.001). Predictive model quality: AUC = 0.811 [0.733‒0.874], p < 0.001.Conclusions. A nomogram to assess the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 has been developed. It includes the assessment of age, history of COPD, CKD stage 3b and higher, peripheral artery diseases, and monitoring of LDH and CRP.https://www.vair-journal.com/jour/article/view/621covid-19prognostic nomogramlaboratory monitoring of covid-19risk factors of deathpredictors |
| spellingShingle | A. N. Kuzovlev L. V. Ermokhina N. S. Melnikova L. B. Berikashvili M. Ya. Yadgarov K. K. Kadantseva N. I. Chaus S. N. Perekhodov T. S. Serkova V. V. Likhvantsev A Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit Вестник анестезиологии и реаниматологии covid-19 prognostic nomogram laboratory monitoring of covid-19 risk factors of death predictors |
| title | A Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit |
| title_full | A Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit |
| title_fullStr | A Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit |
| title_short | A Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit |
| title_sort | nomogram for predicting hospital mortality in patients with covid 19 admitted to the intensive care unit |
| topic | covid-19 prognostic nomogram laboratory monitoring of covid-19 risk factors of death predictors |
| url | https://www.vair-journal.com/jour/article/view/621 |
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