A procedure for urban water supply system planning under climate variability and deep uncertainty conditions

ABSTRACT This study developed a structured, easy-to-understand methodology for evaluating urban water supply system alternatives subject to climate variability and deep uncertainties. The water balance in all alternatives was computed from 2021 to 2060 using the Water Evaluation And Planning System...

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Main Authors: José Luís Polygacz de Nazareno, Conceição de Maria Albuquerque Alves
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos 2025-02-01
Series:Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312025000100205&lng=en&tlng=en
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author José Luís Polygacz de Nazareno
Conceição de Maria Albuquerque Alves
author_facet José Luís Polygacz de Nazareno
Conceição de Maria Albuquerque Alves
author_sort José Luís Polygacz de Nazareno
collection DOAJ
description ABSTRACT This study developed a structured, easy-to-understand methodology for evaluating urban water supply system alternatives subject to climate variability and deep uncertainties. The water balance in all alternatives was computed from 2021 to 2060 using the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP) platform and incorporating decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) techniques. A scenario ensemble of climate conditions and deep uncertainty factors was defined as a state of the world (SOW) for the comparison of performance among the alternatives. The procedure stablished system objectives (minimizing service failure, energy consumption and reservoir failures) and criteria to guide the evaluation among the alternatives. The methodology was applied to the urban water supply system (UWSS) in the Federal District of Brazil, revealing that one specific supply option demonstrated the best overall performance from a multi-objective perspective. However, if the goal is strictly to minimize the intensity of service failures, a different supply configuration emerges as the more effective choice. The methodology allows the selection of the condition that best meet the objectives and priorities of the water utility by choosing specific objective. It was possible to illustrate the tradeoffs that arise from the selection of specific objectives during the evaluation.
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spelling doaj-art-4ce9f4a0f6dc4e9ca627e94457bfc1bd2025-08-20T03:01:07ZengAssociação Brasileira de Recursos HídricosRevista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos2318-03312025-02-013010.1590/2318-0331.302520240086A procedure for urban water supply system planning under climate variability and deep uncertainty conditionsJosé Luís Polygacz de Nazarenohttps://orcid.org/0009-0003-4737-2821Conceição de Maria Albuquerque Alveshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6553-1561ABSTRACT This study developed a structured, easy-to-understand methodology for evaluating urban water supply system alternatives subject to climate variability and deep uncertainties. The water balance in all alternatives was computed from 2021 to 2060 using the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP) platform and incorporating decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) techniques. A scenario ensemble of climate conditions and deep uncertainty factors was defined as a state of the world (SOW) for the comparison of performance among the alternatives. The procedure stablished system objectives (minimizing service failure, energy consumption and reservoir failures) and criteria to guide the evaluation among the alternatives. The methodology was applied to the urban water supply system (UWSS) in the Federal District of Brazil, revealing that one specific supply option demonstrated the best overall performance from a multi-objective perspective. However, if the goal is strictly to minimize the intensity of service failures, a different supply configuration emerges as the more effective choice. The methodology allows the selection of the condition that best meet the objectives and priorities of the water utility by choosing specific objective. It was possible to illustrate the tradeoffs that arise from the selection of specific objectives during the evaluation.http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312025000100205&lng=en&tlng=enDeep uncertaintiesUrban water supply systemDecision support systemWEAP
spellingShingle José Luís Polygacz de Nazareno
Conceição de Maria Albuquerque Alves
A procedure for urban water supply system planning under climate variability and deep uncertainty conditions
Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
Deep uncertainties
Urban water supply system
Decision support system
WEAP
title A procedure for urban water supply system planning under climate variability and deep uncertainty conditions
title_full A procedure for urban water supply system planning under climate variability and deep uncertainty conditions
title_fullStr A procedure for urban water supply system planning under climate variability and deep uncertainty conditions
title_full_unstemmed A procedure for urban water supply system planning under climate variability and deep uncertainty conditions
title_short A procedure for urban water supply system planning under climate variability and deep uncertainty conditions
title_sort procedure for urban water supply system planning under climate variability and deep uncertainty conditions
topic Deep uncertainties
Urban water supply system
Decision support system
WEAP
url http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2318-03312025000100205&lng=en&tlng=en
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