A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Periodic Transmission Rate in Wenzhou, China
We establish an SEIQRS epidemic model with periodic transmission rate to investigate the spread of seasonal HFMD in Wenzhou. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we show that the global dynamics of the HFMD model can be governed by its reproduction number R0; if R0<1, the...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2014-01-01
|
| Series: | Abstract and Applied Analysis |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/234509 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850107182934130688 |
|---|---|
| author | Yeting Zhu Boyang Xu Xinze Lian Wang Lin Zumu Zhou Weiming Wang |
| author_facet | Yeting Zhu Boyang Xu Xinze Lian Wang Lin Zumu Zhou Weiming Wang |
| author_sort | Yeting Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We establish an SEIQRS epidemic model with periodic transmission rate to investigate the spread of seasonal HFMD in Wenzhou. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we show that the global dynamics of the HFMD model can be governed by its reproduction number R0; if R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable, which means that the disease will vanish after some period of time; while if R0>1, the model has at least one positive periodic solution and is uniformly persistent, which indicates that HFMD becomes an endemic disease. Epidemiologically, based on the statistical data of HFMD in Wenzhou, we find that the HFMD becomes an endemic disease and will break out in Wenzhou. One of the most interesting findings is that, for controlling the HFMD spread, we must increase the quarantined rate or decrease the treatment cycle. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4c88b032a46343628487098761a4d8ee |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1085-3375 1687-0409 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Abstract and Applied Analysis |
| spelling | doaj-art-4c88b032a46343628487098761a4d8ee2025-08-20T02:38:39ZengWileyAbstract and Applied Analysis1085-33751687-04092014-01-01201410.1155/2014/234509234509A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Periodic Transmission Rate in Wenzhou, ChinaYeting Zhu0Boyang Xu1Xinze Lian2Wang Lin3Zumu Zhou4Weiming Wang5College of Mathematics and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, ChinaCollege of Mathematics and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, ChinaCollege of Mathematics and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, ChinaCollege of Mathematics and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, ChinaWenzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wenzhou 325000, ChinaCollege of Mathematics and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou 325035, ChinaWe establish an SEIQRS epidemic model with periodic transmission rate to investigate the spread of seasonal HFMD in Wenzhou. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we show that the global dynamics of the HFMD model can be governed by its reproduction number R0; if R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable, which means that the disease will vanish after some period of time; while if R0>1, the model has at least one positive periodic solution and is uniformly persistent, which indicates that HFMD becomes an endemic disease. Epidemiologically, based on the statistical data of HFMD in Wenzhou, we find that the HFMD becomes an endemic disease and will break out in Wenzhou. One of the most interesting findings is that, for controlling the HFMD spread, we must increase the quarantined rate or decrease the treatment cycle.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/234509 |
| spellingShingle | Yeting Zhu Boyang Xu Xinze Lian Wang Lin Zumu Zhou Weiming Wang A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Periodic Transmission Rate in Wenzhou, China Abstract and Applied Analysis |
| title | A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Periodic Transmission Rate in Wenzhou, China |
| title_full | A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Periodic Transmission Rate in Wenzhou, China |
| title_fullStr | A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Periodic Transmission Rate in Wenzhou, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Periodic Transmission Rate in Wenzhou, China |
| title_short | A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Periodic Transmission Rate in Wenzhou, China |
| title_sort | hand foot and mouth disease model with periodic transmission rate in wenzhou china |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/234509 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yetingzhu ahandfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina AT boyangxu ahandfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina AT xinzelian ahandfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina AT wanglin ahandfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina AT zumuzhou ahandfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina AT weimingwang ahandfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina AT yetingzhu handfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina AT boyangxu handfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina AT xinzelian handfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina AT wanglin handfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina AT zumuzhou handfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina AT weimingwang handfootandmouthdiseasemodelwithperiodictransmissionrateinwenzhouchina |