Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes
<p>We examined the effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone (O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>) levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario using the Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0 (GCAP 2.0) model. In eastern China (EC)...
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Copernicus Publications
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/3603/2025/acp-25-3603-2025.pdf |
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| author | L. Kang H. Liao K. Li X. Yue Y. Yang Y. Wang |
| author_facet | L. Kang H. Liao K. Li X. Yue Y. Yang Y. Wang |
| author_sort | L. Kang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>We examined the effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone (O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>) levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario using the Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0 (GCAP 2.0) model. In eastern China (EC), GCAP 2.0 and six other models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) all projected increases in daily maximum 2 m temperature (T2max), surface incoming shortwave radiation (SW), and planet boundary layer height and decreases in relative humidity (RH) and sea level pressure. Future climate change is simulated by GCAP 2.0 to have large effects on O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> even under a carbon neutrality pathway, with summertime regional and seasonal mean maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> concentrations increasing by 2.3 ppbv (3.9 %) over EC, 4.7 ppbv (7.3 %) over the North China Plain, and 3.0 ppbv (5.1 %) over the Yangtze River Delta. Changes in key meteorological parameters were found to explain 58 %–76 % of the climate-driven MDA8 O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> changes over EC. The most important meteorological parameters in summer are T2max and SW in northern and central EC and RH in southern EC. Analysis showed net chemical production was the most important process that increases O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>, accounting for 34.0 %–62.5 % of the sum of all processes within the boundary layer. We also quantified the uncertainties in climate-induced MDA8 O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> changes using CMIP6 multi-model projections of climate and a stepwise multiple linear regression model. GCAP 2.0 results are at the lower end of the climate-induced increases in MDA8 O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> from the multi-models. These results have important implications for policy-making regarding emission controls against the background of climate warming.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4c63352e1bbd465fb569415d413cae89 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
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| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj-art-4c63352e1bbd465fb569415d413cae892025-08-20T03:40:37ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242025-03-01253603362110.5194/acp-25-3603-2025Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processesL. Kang0H. Liao1K. Li2X. Yue3Y. Yang4Y. Wang5State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China<p>We examined the effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone (O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>) levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario using the Global Change and Air Pollution version 2.0 (GCAP 2.0) model. In eastern China (EC), GCAP 2.0 and six other models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) all projected increases in daily maximum 2 m temperature (T2max), surface incoming shortwave radiation (SW), and planet boundary layer height and decreases in relative humidity (RH) and sea level pressure. Future climate change is simulated by GCAP 2.0 to have large effects on O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> even under a carbon neutrality pathway, with summertime regional and seasonal mean maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> concentrations increasing by 2.3 ppbv (3.9 %) over EC, 4.7 ppbv (7.3 %) over the North China Plain, and 3.0 ppbv (5.1 %) over the Yangtze River Delta. Changes in key meteorological parameters were found to explain 58 %–76 % of the climate-driven MDA8 O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> changes over EC. The most important meteorological parameters in summer are T2max and SW in northern and central EC and RH in southern EC. Analysis showed net chemical production was the most important process that increases O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span>, accounting for 34.0 %–62.5 % of the sum of all processes within the boundary layer. We also quantified the uncertainties in climate-induced MDA8 O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> changes using CMIP6 multi-model projections of climate and a stepwise multiple linear regression model. GCAP 2.0 results are at the lower end of the climate-induced increases in MDA8 O<span class="inline-formula"><sub>3</sub></span> from the multi-models. These results have important implications for policy-making regarding emission controls against the background of climate warming.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/3603/2025/acp-25-3603-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | L. Kang H. Liao K. Li X. Yue Y. Yang Y. Wang Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes |
| title_full | Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes |
| title_fullStr | Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes |
| title_short | Effects of 2010–2045 climate change on ozone levels in China under a carbon neutrality scenario: key meteorological parameters and processes |
| title_sort | effects of 2010 2045 climate change on ozone levels in china under a carbon neutrality scenario key meteorological parameters and processes |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/3603/2025/acp-25-3603-2025.pdf |
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