Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990–2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Introduction Tobacco use is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and its global disease burden trends require further clarification. This study aims to analyze trends in global CVD burden attributable to tobacco in 1990–2021 and project mortality rates and disease burden through 204...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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European Publishing
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Tobacco Induced Diseases |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org/Global-regional-and-national-trends-in-tobacco-induced-cardiovascular-disease-burden,204008,0,2.html |
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| _version_ | 1850087819669667840 |
|---|---|
| author | Xiaoqiang Zhu Lei Chen Xinyue Yang Yanyan Du Yangyu Zhao Tenglong Hu Na Sun Qiang Sun Wenyan Liang Xiqing Wei Zhiqiang Zhang |
| author_facet | Xiaoqiang Zhu Lei Chen Xinyue Yang Yanyan Du Yangyu Zhao Tenglong Hu Na Sun Qiang Sun Wenyan Liang Xiqing Wei Zhiqiang Zhang |
| author_sort | Xiaoqiang Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction
Tobacco use is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD),
and its global disease burden trends require further clarification. This study aims
to analyze trends in global CVD burden attributable to tobacco in 1990–2021 and
project mortality rates and disease burden through 2045.
Methods
Using Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed
temporal trends using age-period-cohort models, evaluated change points with
Joinpoint regression, and conducted forecasting using Bayesian age-period-cohort
(BAPC) models.
Results
In 2021, tobacco-attributable CVD deaths reached 2.147 million globally
(71.3% increase from 1990), although age-standardized mortality rates decreased
to 25.36 per 100000 (83.3% reduction). Mortality rates were lowest in high SDI
regions (326.71 per 100000) and highest in low-middle sociodemographic index
(SDI) regions (788.05 per 100000). The proportion of deaths among those aged
≥80 years increased from 19.2% to 26.2%. Global mortality rates decreased by
1.8% annually, with a greater decline in females (-2.6%) than males (-1.6%).
Projections suggest that by 2045, global CVD deaths may reach approximately
3.267 million (52.1% potential increase), although age-standardized mortality
rates are expected to decrease to around 38.6 per 100000 (15.9% estimated
reduction). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are projected to potentially
increase to 75.755 million (39.9% estimated increase), while age-standardized
DALY rates could decline to approximately 1008.02 per 100000.
Conclusions
Between 1990 and 2021, global tobacco-attributable CVD mortality
rates showed a declining trend, with notable regional, sex, and age disparities.
Projections indicate that while age-standardized rates will continue to decrease,
absolute numbers of deaths and disease burden will increase. The findings
emphasize the need to strengthen tobacco control and CVD prevention in lowmiddle
SDI regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4c04d3220d4940c59bccbd76e9888813 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1617-9625 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | European Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tobacco Induced Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-4c04d3220d4940c59bccbd76e98888132025-08-20T02:43:09ZengEuropean PublishingTobacco Induced Diseases1617-96252025-05-0123May11210.18332/tid/204008204008Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990–2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021Xiaoqiang Zhu0Lei Chen1Xinyue Yang2Yanyan Du3Yangyu Zhao4Tenglong Hu5Na Sun6Qiang Sun7Wenyan Liang8Xiqing Wei9Zhiqiang Zhang10https://orcid.org/0009-0003-3727-2333Department of Cardiology, The Second People's Hospital of Hefei, Hefei Hospital Affiliated to Anhui Medical University, Hefei, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, ChinaGraduate School of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining Medical University, Jining, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining Medical University, Jining, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining Medical University, Jining, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining Medical University, Jining, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining Medical University, Jining, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining Medical University, Jining, ChinaDepartment of Cardiology, Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University, Jining Medical University, Jining, ChinaGraduate School of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, ChinaIntroduction Tobacco use is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and its global disease burden trends require further clarification. This study aims to analyze trends in global CVD burden attributable to tobacco in 1990–2021 and project mortality rates and disease burden through 2045. Methods Using Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed temporal trends using age-period-cohort models, evaluated change points with Joinpoint regression, and conducted forecasting using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models. Results In 2021, tobacco-attributable CVD deaths reached 2.147 million globally (71.3% increase from 1990), although age-standardized mortality rates decreased to 25.36 per 100000 (83.3% reduction). Mortality rates were lowest in high SDI regions (326.71 per 100000) and highest in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions (788.05 per 100000). The proportion of deaths among those aged ≥80 years increased from 19.2% to 26.2%. Global mortality rates decreased by 1.8% annually, with a greater decline in females (-2.6%) than males (-1.6%). Projections suggest that by 2045, global CVD deaths may reach approximately 3.267 million (52.1% potential increase), although age-standardized mortality rates are expected to decrease to around 38.6 per 100000 (15.9% estimated reduction). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are projected to potentially increase to 75.755 million (39.9% estimated increase), while age-standardized DALY rates could decline to approximately 1008.02 per 100000. Conclusions Between 1990 and 2021, global tobacco-attributable CVD mortality rates showed a declining trend, with notable regional, sex, and age disparities. Projections indicate that while age-standardized rates will continue to decrease, absolute numbers of deaths and disease burden will increase. The findings emphasize the need to strengthen tobacco control and CVD prevention in lowmiddle SDI regions.https://www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org/Global-regional-and-national-trends-in-tobacco-induced-cardiovascular-disease-burden,204008,0,2.htmltobacco-attributable cardiovascular diseaseglobal disease burden studysociodemographic disparitieshealth projections |
| spellingShingle | Xiaoqiang Zhu Lei Chen Xinyue Yang Yanyan Du Yangyu Zhao Tenglong Hu Na Sun Qiang Sun Wenyan Liang Xiqing Wei Zhiqiang Zhang Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990–2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Tobacco Induced Diseases tobacco-attributable cardiovascular disease global disease burden study sociodemographic disparities health projections |
| title | Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990–2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full | Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990–2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_fullStr | Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990–2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990–2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_short | Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990–2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
| title_sort | global regional and national trends in tobacco induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990 2021 with projections to 2045 a comprehensive analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021 |
| topic | tobacco-attributable cardiovascular disease global disease burden study sociodemographic disparities health projections |
| url | https://www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org/Global-regional-and-national-trends-in-tobacco-induced-cardiovascular-disease-burden,204008,0,2.html |
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