Intensified dominance of El Niño-like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variations

Abstract Tropical convection anomaly could serve as a crucial driver of global atmospheric teleconnections and weather extremes around the world. However, quantifying the dominances of convection anomalies with regional discrepancies, relevant for the variations of global atmospheric circulations, r...

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Main Authors: Fenying Cai, Shuheng Lin, Dieter Gerten, Song Yang, Xingwen Jiang, Zhen Su, Jürgen Kurths
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01140-7
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author Fenying Cai
Shuheng Lin
Dieter Gerten
Song Yang
Xingwen Jiang
Zhen Su
Jürgen Kurths
author_facet Fenying Cai
Shuheng Lin
Dieter Gerten
Song Yang
Xingwen Jiang
Zhen Su
Jürgen Kurths
author_sort Fenying Cai
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Tropical convection anomaly could serve as a crucial driver of global atmospheric teleconnections and weather extremes around the world. However, quantifying the dominances of convection anomalies with regional discrepancies, relevant for the variations of global atmospheric circulations, remains challenging. By using a network analysis of observation-based rainfall and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, our study reveals that El Niño-like convection is the most primary rainfall pattern driving the global atmospheric circulation variations. High local concurrences of above-normal rainfall events over equatorial central-eastern Pacific amplify their impacts, even though the most intense rainfall anomalies are observed near the Maritime Continent. Furthermore, we find that the impacts of El Niño-like convection will be tripled by the end of this century, as projected consistently by 23 climate models. Such “rich nodes get richer” phenomenon is probably attributable to the dipolar rainfall changes over the equatorial western-central Pacific. This study highlights the dominant role of El Niño-like convection on the global climate variations, especially under the future changing climate.
format Article
id doaj-art-4bbe74731c92483393ea06e7133f09a8
institution Kabale University
issn 2397-3722
language English
publishDate 2025-07-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
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series npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
spelling doaj-art-4bbe74731c92483393ea06e7133f09a82025-08-20T04:01:25ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-07-018111010.1038/s41612-025-01140-7Intensified dominance of El Niño-like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variationsFenying Cai0Shuheng Lin1Dieter Gerten2Song Yang3Xingwen Jiang4Zhen Su5Jürgen Kurths6Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationKey Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process (Ministry of Education), College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal UniversityPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological AdministrationPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz AssociationAbstract Tropical convection anomaly could serve as a crucial driver of global atmospheric teleconnections and weather extremes around the world. However, quantifying the dominances of convection anomalies with regional discrepancies, relevant for the variations of global atmospheric circulations, remains challenging. By using a network analysis of observation-based rainfall and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, our study reveals that El Niño-like convection is the most primary rainfall pattern driving the global atmospheric circulation variations. High local concurrences of above-normal rainfall events over equatorial central-eastern Pacific amplify their impacts, even though the most intense rainfall anomalies are observed near the Maritime Continent. Furthermore, we find that the impacts of El Niño-like convection will be tripled by the end of this century, as projected consistently by 23 climate models. Such “rich nodes get richer” phenomenon is probably attributable to the dipolar rainfall changes over the equatorial western-central Pacific. This study highlights the dominant role of El Niño-like convection on the global climate variations, especially under the future changing climate.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01140-7
spellingShingle Fenying Cai
Shuheng Lin
Dieter Gerten
Song Yang
Xingwen Jiang
Zhen Su
Jürgen Kurths
Intensified dominance of El Niño-like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variations
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
title Intensified dominance of El Niño-like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variations
title_full Intensified dominance of El Niño-like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variations
title_fullStr Intensified dominance of El Niño-like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variations
title_full_unstemmed Intensified dominance of El Niño-like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variations
title_short Intensified dominance of El Niño-like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variations
title_sort intensified dominance of el nino like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variations
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01140-7
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