The Probability of the May 2024 Geomagnetic Superstorm
Abstract In May 2024, a series of coronal mass ejections resulted in the first “severe” (G4‐level) geomagnetic storm watch in nearly 20 years. This event evolved into a significant space weather event, including an “extreme” (G5) geomagnetic storm, moderate (S2) solar radiation storm, and strong (R3...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004113 |
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| author | S. Elvidge D. R. Themens |
| author_facet | S. Elvidge D. R. Themens |
| author_sort | S. Elvidge |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In May 2024, a series of coronal mass ejections resulted in the first “severe” (G4‐level) geomagnetic storm watch in nearly 20 years. This event evolved into a significant space weather event, including an “extreme” (G5) geomagnetic storm, moderate (S2) solar radiation storm, and strong (R3) radio blackout. The widespread visibility of auroras at unusually low latitudes attracted global media attention. Using extreme value theory (EVT), this study estimates the return periods for the May 2024 storm based on several geomagnetic indices. The results indicate that while the storm's magnitude was a 1‐in‐12.5‐year event, its duration was a 1‐in‐41‐year event. This discrepancy highlights the storm's unusual longevity compared to its intensity. Updated EVT analyses incorporating recent data refine these return period estimates, providing critical insights into the frequency of such extreme space weather events. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4b830513668349be91bcd67e0d51ed2a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-4b830513668349be91bcd67e0d51ed2a2025-01-28T10:40:45ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902025-01-01231n/an/a10.1029/2024SW004113The Probability of the May 2024 Geomagnetic SuperstormS. Elvidge0D. R. Themens1Space Environment and Radio Engineering (SERENE) University of Birmingham Birmingham UKSpace Environment and Radio Engineering (SERENE) University of Birmingham Birmingham UKAbstract In May 2024, a series of coronal mass ejections resulted in the first “severe” (G4‐level) geomagnetic storm watch in nearly 20 years. This event evolved into a significant space weather event, including an “extreme” (G5) geomagnetic storm, moderate (S2) solar radiation storm, and strong (R3) radio blackout. The widespread visibility of auroras at unusually low latitudes attracted global media attention. Using extreme value theory (EVT), this study estimates the return periods for the May 2024 storm based on several geomagnetic indices. The results indicate that while the storm's magnitude was a 1‐in‐12.5‐year event, its duration was a 1‐in‐41‐year event. This discrepancy highlights the storm's unusual longevity compared to its intensity. Updated EVT analyses incorporating recent data refine these return period estimates, providing critical insights into the frequency of such extreme space weather events.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004113space weathergeomagnetic stormextreme value analysis |
| spellingShingle | S. Elvidge D. R. Themens The Probability of the May 2024 Geomagnetic Superstorm Space Weather space weather geomagnetic storm extreme value analysis |
| title | The Probability of the May 2024 Geomagnetic Superstorm |
| title_full | The Probability of the May 2024 Geomagnetic Superstorm |
| title_fullStr | The Probability of the May 2024 Geomagnetic Superstorm |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Probability of the May 2024 Geomagnetic Superstorm |
| title_short | The Probability of the May 2024 Geomagnetic Superstorm |
| title_sort | probability of the may 2024 geomagnetic superstorm |
| topic | space weather geomagnetic storm extreme value analysis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW004113 |
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