The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report
We previously described a mathematical model to simulate the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and try to predict how this outbreak might evolve in the following two months when the pandemic cases will drop significantly. Our original paper prepared in March 2020 analyzed the outbreaks of COVID-19 in...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Emerging Microbes and Infections |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/22221751.2020.1843973 |
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| author | Yuanji Tang Sherry Tang Shixia Wang |
| author_facet | Yuanji Tang Sherry Tang Shixia Wang |
| author_sort | Yuanji Tang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We previously described a mathematical model to simulate the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and try to predict how this outbreak might evolve in the following two months when the pandemic cases will drop significantly. Our original paper prepared in March 2020 analyzed the outbreaks of COVID-19 in the US and its selected states to identify the rise, peak, and decrease of cases within a given geographic population, as well as a rough calculation of accumulated total cases in this population from the beginning to the end of June 2020. The current report will describe how well the later actual trend from March to June fit our model and prediction. Similar analyses are also conducted to include countries other than the US. From such a wide global data analysis, our results demonstrated that different US states and countries showed dramatically different patterns of pandemic trend. The values and limitations of our modelling are discussed. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4b75ecc9de7d4ebc86a7ed3f74cad9c9 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2222-1751 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Microbes and Infections |
| spelling | doaj-art-4b75ecc9de7d4ebc86a7ed3f74cad9c92025-08-20T02:11:34ZengTaylor & Francis GroupEmerging Microbes and Infections2222-17512020-01-01912465247310.1080/22221751.2020.1843973The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up reportYuanji Tang0Sherry Tang1Shixia Wang2Applied NanoFemto Technologies, LLC, Lowell, MA, USADepartment of Pathology, Southern California Permanente Medical Group, Riverside, CA, USADepartment of Medicine, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, USAWe previously described a mathematical model to simulate the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and try to predict how this outbreak might evolve in the following two months when the pandemic cases will drop significantly. Our original paper prepared in March 2020 analyzed the outbreaks of COVID-19 in the US and its selected states to identify the rise, peak, and decrease of cases within a given geographic population, as well as a rough calculation of accumulated total cases in this population from the beginning to the end of June 2020. The current report will describe how well the later actual trend from March to June fit our model and prediction. Similar analyses are also conducted to include countries other than the US. From such a wide global data analysis, our results demonstrated that different US states and countries showed dramatically different patterns of pandemic trend. The values and limitations of our modelling are discussed.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/22221751.2020.1843973COVID-19SARS-CoV-2modellingpandemicepidemiology |
| spellingShingle | Yuanji Tang Sherry Tang Shixia Wang The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report Emerging Microbes and Infections COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 modelling pandemic epidemiology |
| title | The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report |
| title_full | The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report |
| title_fullStr | The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report |
| title_full_unstemmed | The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report |
| title_short | The values and limitations of mathematical modelling to COVID-19 in the world: a follow up report |
| title_sort | values and limitations of mathematical modelling to covid 19 in the world a follow up report |
| topic | COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 modelling pandemic epidemiology |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/22221751.2020.1843973 |
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