Impact scenarios on groundwater availability of southern Italy by joint application of regional climate models (RCMs) and meteorological time series
Abstract Nowadays the phenomenon of global warming is unequivocal, as confirmed by the latest reports of the IPCC and studies of the climate-change impacts on ecosystems, global economy, and populations. The effect of climate change on groundwater is a very relevant task especially for regions depen...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70257-1 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850196038039633920 |
|---|---|
| author | Daniele Lepore Edoardo Bucchignani Myriam Montesarchio Vincenzo Allocca Silvio Coda Delia Cusano Pantaleone De Vita |
| author_facet | Daniele Lepore Edoardo Bucchignani Myriam Montesarchio Vincenzo Allocca Silvio Coda Delia Cusano Pantaleone De Vita |
| author_sort | Daniele Lepore |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Nowadays the phenomenon of global warming is unequivocal, as confirmed by the latest reports of the IPCC and studies of the climate-change impacts on ecosystems, global economy, and populations. The effect of climate change on groundwater is a very relevant task especially for regions dependent chiefly on groundwater availability, as for the southern Italy. In such a territorial framework, to achieve a detailed hydro-climatological characterization, an Ensemble of 15 RCMs (E15) derived from the EURO-CORDEX project was analyzed considering two IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The E15 was calibrated over the period (1950–1996) by a statistical comparison with data observed by the regional meteorological network managed by the former National Hydrological Service (SIMN), Department of Naples. The effects of climate change on air temperature (T), precipitation (P) and, consequently, on actual evapotranspiration (ETR) and effective precipitation Pe (P – ETR) were analyzed until 2100. The latter was considered as a proxy of groundwater recharge of the principal aquifer systems, represented chiefly by the karst aquifers. As a principal result, it was found that the E15 is basically able to reproduce the observed annual precipitation (OBSP) and mean annual air temperature (OBST), being characterized by a very similar frequency distribution. Accordingly, an inferential statistical approach was performed for calibrating E15 precipitation (E15P) and air temperature (E15T) based on the compensation of the difference with OBSP (+ 7%) and OBST (− 16%). The E15 projects a reduction in precipitation and an increase in air temperature under both RCPs, with a divergence point between the two scenarios occurring by about 2040. As a principal result, Pe shows declining trends for both RCP scenarios, reaching a decrease of the 11-yrs moving average down to − 20%, for RCP4.5, and − 50%, for RCP8.5, even if characterized by relevant inter-annual fluctuations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4b5ea383846d4506ba2f2b6c4df16c20 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-4b5ea383846d4506ba2f2b6c4df16c202025-08-20T02:13:35ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-11-0114111810.1038/s41598-024-70257-1Impact scenarios on groundwater availability of southern Italy by joint application of regional climate models (RCMs) and meteorological time seriesDaniele Lepore0Edoardo Bucchignani1Myriam Montesarchio2Vincenzo Allocca3Silvio Coda4Delia Cusano5Pantaleone De Vita6Department of Earth, Environmental and Resource Sciences (DiSTAR), University of Naples Federico IIMeteorology Laboratory, Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali (CIRA)Meteorology Laboratory, Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali (CIRA)Department of Earth, Environmental and Resource Sciences (DiSTAR), University of Naples Federico IIDepartment of Earth, Environmental and Resource Sciences (DiSTAR), University of Naples Federico IIDepartment of Earth, Environmental and Resource Sciences (DiSTAR), University of Naples Federico IIDepartment of Earth, Environmental and Resource Sciences (DiSTAR), University of Naples Federico IIAbstract Nowadays the phenomenon of global warming is unequivocal, as confirmed by the latest reports of the IPCC and studies of the climate-change impacts on ecosystems, global economy, and populations. The effect of climate change on groundwater is a very relevant task especially for regions dependent chiefly on groundwater availability, as for the southern Italy. In such a territorial framework, to achieve a detailed hydro-climatological characterization, an Ensemble of 15 RCMs (E15) derived from the EURO-CORDEX project was analyzed considering two IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The E15 was calibrated over the period (1950–1996) by a statistical comparison with data observed by the regional meteorological network managed by the former National Hydrological Service (SIMN), Department of Naples. The effects of climate change on air temperature (T), precipitation (P) and, consequently, on actual evapotranspiration (ETR) and effective precipitation Pe (P – ETR) were analyzed until 2100. The latter was considered as a proxy of groundwater recharge of the principal aquifer systems, represented chiefly by the karst aquifers. As a principal result, it was found that the E15 is basically able to reproduce the observed annual precipitation (OBSP) and mean annual air temperature (OBST), being characterized by a very similar frequency distribution. Accordingly, an inferential statistical approach was performed for calibrating E15 precipitation (E15P) and air temperature (E15T) based on the compensation of the difference with OBSP (+ 7%) and OBST (− 16%). The E15 projects a reduction in precipitation and an increase in air temperature under both RCPs, with a divergence point between the two scenarios occurring by about 2040. As a principal result, Pe shows declining trends for both RCP scenarios, reaching a decrease of the 11-yrs moving average down to − 20%, for RCP4.5, and − 50%, for RCP8.5, even if characterized by relevant inter-annual fluctuations.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70257-1Groundwater rechargeKarst aquifersRCMsSouthern Italy |
| spellingShingle | Daniele Lepore Edoardo Bucchignani Myriam Montesarchio Vincenzo Allocca Silvio Coda Delia Cusano Pantaleone De Vita Impact scenarios on groundwater availability of southern Italy by joint application of regional climate models (RCMs) and meteorological time series Scientific Reports Groundwater recharge Karst aquifers RCMs Southern Italy |
| title | Impact scenarios on groundwater availability of southern Italy by joint application of regional climate models (RCMs) and meteorological time series |
| title_full | Impact scenarios on groundwater availability of southern Italy by joint application of regional climate models (RCMs) and meteorological time series |
| title_fullStr | Impact scenarios on groundwater availability of southern Italy by joint application of regional climate models (RCMs) and meteorological time series |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact scenarios on groundwater availability of southern Italy by joint application of regional climate models (RCMs) and meteorological time series |
| title_short | Impact scenarios on groundwater availability of southern Italy by joint application of regional climate models (RCMs) and meteorological time series |
| title_sort | impact scenarios on groundwater availability of southern italy by joint application of regional climate models rcms and meteorological time series |
| topic | Groundwater recharge Karst aquifers RCMs Southern Italy |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-70257-1 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT danielelepore impactscenariosongroundwateravailabilityofsouthernitalybyjointapplicationofregionalclimatemodelsrcmsandmeteorologicaltimeseries AT edoardobucchignani impactscenariosongroundwateravailabilityofsouthernitalybyjointapplicationofregionalclimatemodelsrcmsandmeteorologicaltimeseries AT myriammontesarchio impactscenariosongroundwateravailabilityofsouthernitalybyjointapplicationofregionalclimatemodelsrcmsandmeteorologicaltimeseries AT vincenzoallocca impactscenariosongroundwateravailabilityofsouthernitalybyjointapplicationofregionalclimatemodelsrcmsandmeteorologicaltimeseries AT silviocoda impactscenariosongroundwateravailabilityofsouthernitalybyjointapplicationofregionalclimatemodelsrcmsandmeteorologicaltimeseries AT deliacusano impactscenariosongroundwateravailabilityofsouthernitalybyjointapplicationofregionalclimatemodelsrcmsandmeteorologicaltimeseries AT pantaleonedevita impactscenariosongroundwateravailabilityofsouthernitalybyjointapplicationofregionalclimatemodelsrcmsandmeteorologicaltimeseries |