Volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract Retrogressive thaw slumping (RTS) is a mass-wasting process characterized by upslope backwasting and rapid thawing of ice-rich permafrost. High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from ArcticDEM enable the volumetric and soil organic carbon quantification of medium to large disturban...

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Main Authors: Chunli Dai, Melissa K. Ward Jones, Jurjen van der Sluijs, Nina Nesterova, Ian M. Howat, Anna K. Liljedahl, Bretwood Higman, Jeffrey T. Freymueller, Steven V. Kokelj, Sindhura Sriram
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62017-0
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author Chunli Dai
Melissa K. Ward Jones
Jurjen van der Sluijs
Nina Nesterova
Ian M. Howat
Anna K. Liljedahl
Bretwood Higman
Jeffrey T. Freymueller
Steven V. Kokelj
Sindhura Sriram
author_facet Chunli Dai
Melissa K. Ward Jones
Jurjen van der Sluijs
Nina Nesterova
Ian M. Howat
Anna K. Liljedahl
Bretwood Higman
Jeffrey T. Freymueller
Steven V. Kokelj
Sindhura Sriram
author_sort Chunli Dai
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Retrogressive thaw slumping (RTS) is a mass-wasting process characterized by upslope backwasting and rapid thawing of ice-rich permafrost. High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from ArcticDEM enable the volumetric and soil organic carbon quantification of medium to large disturbance areas undergoing RTS ( ≥10,000 m2) for the Northern Hemisphere. Using DEM time-series analysis and deep learning, we retrieve a total of 2747 disturbance areas undergoing active RTS with a total volume loss of (317.0 ± 0.3) × 106 m3 between 2012 and 2022. Here we show that climatic drivers of RTS activity exhibit latitudinal and regional variations, specifically, the number of precipitation-driven RTS decreases linearly as latitudes increase, whereas temperature-driven RTS increases sharply. Finally, we estimate that 96% of detected RTS thawed ~1.95 × 10–3 Pg carbon per year, equivalent to ~0.2% of annual gradual thaw emission estimates. Our results highlight the complexity of regional RTS dynamics and the importance of high resolution, long-term monitoring efforts.
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spelling doaj-art-4b1b5fdc31964ce2a3a8452cc8cc365f2025-08-20T04:03:07ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-07-0116111610.1038/s41467-025-62017-0Volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the Northern HemisphereChunli Dai0Melissa K. Ward Jones1Jurjen van der Sluijs2Nina Nesterova3Ian M. Howat4Anna K. Liljedahl5Bretwood Higman6Jeffrey T. Freymueller7Steven V. Kokelj8Sindhura Sriram9School of Forest, Fisheries, and Geomatics Sciences (FFGS), University of FloridaWater and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska FairbanksNorthwest Territories Centre for Geomatics, Government of Northwest TerritoriesAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchByrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State UniversityWoodwell Climate Research CenterGround Truth AlaskaDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State UniversityNorthwest Territories Geological Survey, Government of Northwest TerritoriesSchool of Forest, Fisheries, and Geomatics Sciences (FFGS), University of FloridaAbstract Retrogressive thaw slumping (RTS) is a mass-wasting process characterized by upslope backwasting and rapid thawing of ice-rich permafrost. High-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from ArcticDEM enable the volumetric and soil organic carbon quantification of medium to large disturbance areas undergoing RTS ( ≥10,000 m2) for the Northern Hemisphere. Using DEM time-series analysis and deep learning, we retrieve a total of 2747 disturbance areas undergoing active RTS with a total volume loss of (317.0 ± 0.3) × 106 m3 between 2012 and 2022. Here we show that climatic drivers of RTS activity exhibit latitudinal and regional variations, specifically, the number of precipitation-driven RTS decreases linearly as latitudes increase, whereas temperature-driven RTS increases sharply. Finally, we estimate that 96% of detected RTS thawed ~1.95 × 10–3 Pg carbon per year, equivalent to ~0.2% of annual gradual thaw emission estimates. Our results highlight the complexity of regional RTS dynamics and the importance of high resolution, long-term monitoring efforts.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62017-0
spellingShingle Chunli Dai
Melissa K. Ward Jones
Jurjen van der Sluijs
Nina Nesterova
Ian M. Howat
Anna K. Liljedahl
Bretwood Higman
Jeffrey T. Freymueller
Steven V. Kokelj
Sindhura Sriram
Volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the Northern Hemisphere
Nature Communications
title Volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the Northern Hemisphere
title_full Volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the Northern Hemisphere
title_fullStr Volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the Northern Hemisphere
title_full_unstemmed Volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the Northern Hemisphere
title_short Volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the Northern Hemisphere
title_sort volumetric quantifications and dynamics of areas undergoing retrogressive thaw slumping in the northern hemisphere
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62017-0
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