Robust design of bicycle infrastructure networks

Abstract Promoting active mobility like cycling relies on the availability of well-connected, high-quality bicycle networks. However, expanding these networks over an extended planning horizon presents one of the most complex challenges in transport science. This complexity arises from the intricate...

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Main Authors: Christoph Steinacker, Mads Paulsen, Malte Schröder, Jeppe Rich
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-05-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-99976-9
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author Christoph Steinacker
Mads Paulsen
Malte Schröder
Jeppe Rich
author_facet Christoph Steinacker
Mads Paulsen
Malte Schröder
Jeppe Rich
author_sort Christoph Steinacker
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Promoting active mobility like cycling relies on the availability of well-connected, high-quality bicycle networks. However, expanding these networks over an extended planning horizon presents one of the most complex challenges in transport science. This complexity arises from the intricate interactions between infrastructure availability and usage, such as network spillover effects and mode choice substitutions. In this paper, we approach the problem from two perspectives: direct optimization methods, which generate near-optimal solutions using operations research techniques, and conceptual heuristics, which offer intuitive and scalable algorithms grounded in network science. Specifically, we compare direct welfare optimization with an inverse network percolation approach to planning cycle superhighway extensions in Copenhagen. Interestingly, while the more complex optimization models yield better overall welfare results, the improvements over simpler methods are small. More importantly, we demonstrate that the increased complexity of planning approaches generally makes them more vulnerable to input uncertainty, reflecting the bias-variance tradeoff. This issue is particularly relevant in the context of long-term planning, where conditions change during the implementation of the planned infrastructure expansions. Therefore, while planning bicycle infrastructure is important and renders exceptionally high benefit-cost ratios, considerations of robustness and ease of implementation may justify the use of more straightforward network-based methods.
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spelling doaj-art-4b032b518f1f42e5ba2a27be242e1e652025-08-20T02:10:46ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-05-0115111810.1038/s41598-025-99976-9Robust design of bicycle infrastructure networksChristoph Steinacker0Mads Paulsen1Malte Schröder2Jeppe Rich3Chair of Network Dynamics, Center for Advancing Electronics Dresden (cfaed) and Institute of Theoretical Physics, TUD Dresden University of TechnologyTransportation Science Division, Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of DenmarkChair of Network Dynamics, Center for Advancing Electronics Dresden (cfaed) and Institute of Theoretical Physics, TUD Dresden University of TechnologyTransportation Science Division, Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of DenmarkAbstract Promoting active mobility like cycling relies on the availability of well-connected, high-quality bicycle networks. However, expanding these networks over an extended planning horizon presents one of the most complex challenges in transport science. This complexity arises from the intricate interactions between infrastructure availability and usage, such as network spillover effects and mode choice substitutions. In this paper, we approach the problem from two perspectives: direct optimization methods, which generate near-optimal solutions using operations research techniques, and conceptual heuristics, which offer intuitive and scalable algorithms grounded in network science. Specifically, we compare direct welfare optimization with an inverse network percolation approach to planning cycle superhighway extensions in Copenhagen. Interestingly, while the more complex optimization models yield better overall welfare results, the improvements over simpler methods are small. More importantly, we demonstrate that the increased complexity of planning approaches generally makes them more vulnerable to input uncertainty, reflecting the bias-variance tradeoff. This issue is particularly relevant in the context of long-term planning, where conditions change during the implementation of the planned infrastructure expansions. Therefore, while planning bicycle infrastructure is important and renders exceptionally high benefit-cost ratios, considerations of robustness and ease of implementation may justify the use of more straightforward network-based methods.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-99976-9
spellingShingle Christoph Steinacker
Mads Paulsen
Malte Schröder
Jeppe Rich
Robust design of bicycle infrastructure networks
Scientific Reports
title Robust design of bicycle infrastructure networks
title_full Robust design of bicycle infrastructure networks
title_fullStr Robust design of bicycle infrastructure networks
title_full_unstemmed Robust design of bicycle infrastructure networks
title_short Robust design of bicycle infrastructure networks
title_sort robust design of bicycle infrastructure networks
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-99976-9
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AT jepperich robustdesignofbicycleinfrastructurenetworks