Leveraging Multi-Omics Data with Machine Learning to Predict Grain Yield in Small vs. Big Plot Wheat Trials

Accurate grain yield (GY) prediction is essential in wheat breeding to enhance selection and accelerate breeding cycles. This study explored whether high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) data collected from small plot (SP) trials can effectively predict GY outcomes in later-stage big plot (BP) trials. G...

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Main Authors: Jordan McBreen, Md Ali Babar, Diego Jarquin, Yiannis Ampatzidis, Naeem Khan, Sudip Kunwar, Janam Prabhat Acharya, Samuel Adewale, Gina Brown-Guedira
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-05-01
Series:Agronomy
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/6/1315
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author Jordan McBreen
Md Ali Babar
Diego Jarquin
Yiannis Ampatzidis
Naeem Khan
Sudip Kunwar
Janam Prabhat Acharya
Samuel Adewale
Gina Brown-Guedira
author_facet Jordan McBreen
Md Ali Babar
Diego Jarquin
Yiannis Ampatzidis
Naeem Khan
Sudip Kunwar
Janam Prabhat Acharya
Samuel Adewale
Gina Brown-Guedira
author_sort Jordan McBreen
collection DOAJ
description Accurate grain yield (GY) prediction is essential in wheat breeding to enhance selection and accelerate breeding cycles. This study explored whether high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) data collected from small plot (SP) trials can effectively predict GY outcomes in later-stage big plot (BP) trials. Genomic (G) data were combined with hyperspectral (H) and multispectral + thermal (M) imaging across the 2022 and 2023 growing seasons at the Plant Science Research and Education Unit, Citra, Florida. A panel of 312 wheat genotypes was analyzed using GBLUP-based models, integrating G + H and G + M data from SP to predict BP yield. SP models demonstrated promising predictive ability, with G + H models achieving moderate within-year (0.43 to 0.51) and across-year (0.43) prediction accuracies, while G + M models reached 0.53 to 0.58 and 0.45, respectively. The Random Forest Regression (RFR) model produced an accuracy of 0.47 when M data from the 2022 SP, combined with G, was used to predict BP yield in 2023. Additionally, the top 25% specificity (coincide index) was evaluated, with models showing up to 47–51% within a year and 43–45% between years overlap in the highest predicted-yielding lines between SP and BP trials, further emphasizing the potential of SP data for early selection. These findings suggest that SP trials can provide meaningful predictions for BP yields, enabling earlier selection and faster breeding cycles.
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spelling doaj-art-4af474915b2845f48ea2501e5628d9dc2025-08-20T03:30:28ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952025-05-01156131510.3390/agronomy15061315Leveraging Multi-Omics Data with Machine Learning to Predict Grain Yield in Small vs. Big Plot Wheat TrialsJordan McBreen0Md Ali Babar1Diego Jarquin2Yiannis Ampatzidis3Naeem Khan4Sudip Kunwar5Janam Prabhat Acharya6Samuel Adewale7Gina Brown-Guedira8Department of Agronomy, University of Florida, 3105 McCarty Hall B, Gainesville, FL 32608, USADepartment of Agronomy, University of Florida, 3105 McCarty Hall B, Gainesville, FL 32608, USADepartment of Agronomy, University of Florida, 3105 McCarty Hall B, Gainesville, FL 32608, USAAgricultural and Biological Engineering Department, Southwest Florida Research and Education Center, University of Florida, IFAS, 2685 SR 29 North, Immokalee, FL 34142, USADepartment of Agronomy, University of Florida, 3105 McCarty Hall B, Gainesville, FL 32608, USADepartment of Agronomy, University of Florida, 3105 McCarty Hall B, Gainesville, FL 32608, USADepartment of Agronomy, University of Florida, 3105 McCarty Hall B, Gainesville, FL 32608, USADepartment of Agronomy, University of Florida, 3105 McCarty Hall B, Gainesville, FL 32608, USAPlant Science Research, USDA-ARS SEA, Raleigh, NC 27695, USAAccurate grain yield (GY) prediction is essential in wheat breeding to enhance selection and accelerate breeding cycles. This study explored whether high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) data collected from small plot (SP) trials can effectively predict GY outcomes in later-stage big plot (BP) trials. Genomic (G) data were combined with hyperspectral (H) and multispectral + thermal (M) imaging across the 2022 and 2023 growing seasons at the Plant Science Research and Education Unit, Citra, Florida. A panel of 312 wheat genotypes was analyzed using GBLUP-based models, integrating G + H and G + M data from SP to predict BP yield. SP models demonstrated promising predictive ability, with G + H models achieving moderate within-year (0.43 to 0.51) and across-year (0.43) prediction accuracies, while G + M models reached 0.53 to 0.58 and 0.45, respectively. The Random Forest Regression (RFR) model produced an accuracy of 0.47 when M data from the 2022 SP, combined with G, was used to predict BP yield in 2023. Additionally, the top 25% specificity (coincide index) was evaluated, with models showing up to 47–51% within a year and 43–45% between years overlap in the highest predicted-yielding lines between SP and BP trials, further emphasizing the potential of SP data for early selection. These findings suggest that SP trials can provide meaningful predictions for BP yields, enabling earlier selection and faster breeding cycles.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/6/1315grain yieldwheat breedinggenomic predictionhigh-throughput phenotypinghyperspectral imagingUAV phenotyping
spellingShingle Jordan McBreen
Md Ali Babar
Diego Jarquin
Yiannis Ampatzidis
Naeem Khan
Sudip Kunwar
Janam Prabhat Acharya
Samuel Adewale
Gina Brown-Guedira
Leveraging Multi-Omics Data with Machine Learning to Predict Grain Yield in Small vs. Big Plot Wheat Trials
Agronomy
grain yield
wheat breeding
genomic prediction
high-throughput phenotyping
hyperspectral imaging
UAV phenotyping
title Leveraging Multi-Omics Data with Machine Learning to Predict Grain Yield in Small vs. Big Plot Wheat Trials
title_full Leveraging Multi-Omics Data with Machine Learning to Predict Grain Yield in Small vs. Big Plot Wheat Trials
title_fullStr Leveraging Multi-Omics Data with Machine Learning to Predict Grain Yield in Small vs. Big Plot Wheat Trials
title_full_unstemmed Leveraging Multi-Omics Data with Machine Learning to Predict Grain Yield in Small vs. Big Plot Wheat Trials
title_short Leveraging Multi-Omics Data with Machine Learning to Predict Grain Yield in Small vs. Big Plot Wheat Trials
title_sort leveraging multi omics data with machine learning to predict grain yield in small vs big plot wheat trials
topic grain yield
wheat breeding
genomic prediction
high-throughput phenotyping
hyperspectral imaging
UAV phenotyping
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/15/6/1315
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