Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly
Abstract Tipping (or sudden transition) from a desirable state to an undesirable one can result in catastrophic changes, affecting natural environments, human societies and economies. Early warning signals (EWSs) are developed to forewarn such an impending tipping. However, when control parameters a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06525-5 |
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| _version_ | 1850109923451469824 |
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| author | Rohit Radhakrishnan Induja Pavithran Valerie Livina Jürgen Kurths R. I. Sujith |
| author_facet | Rohit Radhakrishnan Induja Pavithran Valerie Livina Jürgen Kurths R. I. Sujith |
| author_sort | Rohit Radhakrishnan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Tipping (or sudden transition) from a desirable state to an undesirable one can result in catastrophic changes, affecting natural environments, human societies and economies. Early warning signals (EWSs) are developed to forewarn such an impending tipping. However, when control parameters are varied fast, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points; this questions the applicability of EWSs in preventing tipping. At the same time, the fast rate of change of parameter delays the actual tipping event, providing a borrowed window of safe operation. This delay in tipping offers a window for prevention through swift action. We demonstrate instances of both successful and unsuccessful preventions, in a paradigmatic thermoacoustic system—a horizontal Rijke tube. This work highlights the interplay of warning time, choice of prevention action and rate of variation of parameters in EWS-based prevention of tipping. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4ae0ea5f6d39416794643fc202399b71 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-4ae0ea5f6d39416794643fc202399b712025-08-20T02:37:57ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-06-0115111110.1038/s41598-025-06525-5Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidlyRohit Radhakrishnan0Induja Pavithran1Valerie Livina2Jürgen Kurths3R. I. Sujith4Department of Aerospace Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology MadrasDepartment of Aerospace Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology MadrasData Science Department, National Physical LaboratoryPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)Department of Aerospace Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology MadrasAbstract Tipping (or sudden transition) from a desirable state to an undesirable one can result in catastrophic changes, affecting natural environments, human societies and economies. Early warning signals (EWSs) are developed to forewarn such an impending tipping. However, when control parameters are varied fast, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points; this questions the applicability of EWSs in preventing tipping. At the same time, the fast rate of change of parameter delays the actual tipping event, providing a borrowed window of safe operation. This delay in tipping offers a window for prevention through swift action. We demonstrate instances of both successful and unsuccessful preventions, in a paradigmatic thermoacoustic system—a horizontal Rijke tube. This work highlights the interplay of warning time, choice of prevention action and rate of variation of parameters in EWS-based prevention of tipping.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06525-5 |
| spellingShingle | Rohit Radhakrishnan Induja Pavithran Valerie Livina Jürgen Kurths R. I. Sujith Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly Scientific Reports |
| title | Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly |
| title_full | Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly |
| title_fullStr | Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly |
| title_full_unstemmed | Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly |
| title_short | Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly |
| title_sort | early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06525-5 |
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