Temporal Evolution and Convergence Patterns of Urban Expansion in China: Evidence from 315 Cities over Two Decades

Rapid urbanization in China has driven the continuous expansion of urban land over many years. While most studies have examined the scale, speed, and spatial distribution of urban expansion, few have explored its temporal evolution and convergence patterns. To address this gap, the present study emp...

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Main Authors: Shengqiang Jing, Fangqu Niu, Jintao Yang, Linda Dai
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-06-01
Series:ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/14/7/241
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author Shengqiang Jing
Fangqu Niu
Jintao Yang
Linda Dai
author_facet Shengqiang Jing
Fangqu Niu
Jintao Yang
Linda Dai
author_sort Shengqiang Jing
collection DOAJ
description Rapid urbanization in China has driven the continuous expansion of urban land over many years. While most studies have examined the scale, speed, and spatial distribution of urban expansion, few have explored its temporal evolution and convergence patterns. To address this gap, the present study employs kernel density estimation (KDE) and the log t regression test to analyze urban expansion across 315 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2022. Our results reveal that the per capita urban area increased by a factor of 1.58 amid a fluctuating process on a national scale. Moreover, the log t regression test rejects convergence at national and regional levels while identifying six distinct convergence clubs. The evolutionary trajectories of these clubs have diverged over time, with inter-club gaps stabilizing and their spatial distribution exhibiting significant agglomeration. These findings indicate that urban expansion in China remains characterized by multiple equilibria, with imbalanced growth having stabilized. Consequently, effective urban planning, along with the diffusion of capital and technology, may promote a shift towards global convergence in urban expansion dynamics.
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spelling doaj-art-4aaebc84ef4d4954b03099c5d619dbc02025-08-20T02:45:37ZengMDPI AGISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information2220-99642025-06-0114724110.3390/ijgi14070241Temporal Evolution and Convergence Patterns of Urban Expansion in China: Evidence from 315 Cities over Two DecadesShengqiang Jing0Fangqu Niu1Jintao Yang2Linda Dai3School of Environment and Disaster Management, Institute of Disaster Prevention, Langfang 065201, ChinaKey Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaCollege of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, ChinaCollege of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing 100083, ChinaRapid urbanization in China has driven the continuous expansion of urban land over many years. While most studies have examined the scale, speed, and spatial distribution of urban expansion, few have explored its temporal evolution and convergence patterns. To address this gap, the present study employs kernel density estimation (KDE) and the log t regression test to analyze urban expansion across 315 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2022. Our results reveal that the per capita urban area increased by a factor of 1.58 amid a fluctuating process on a national scale. Moreover, the log t regression test rejects convergence at national and regional levels while identifying six distinct convergence clubs. The evolutionary trajectories of these clubs have diverged over time, with inter-club gaps stabilizing and their spatial distribution exhibiting significant agglomeration. These findings indicate that urban expansion in China remains characterized by multiple equilibria, with imbalanced growth having stabilized. Consequently, effective urban planning, along with the diffusion of capital and technology, may promote a shift towards global convergence in urban expansion dynamics.https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/14/7/241urban expansionconvergence analysismultiple equilibria
spellingShingle Shengqiang Jing
Fangqu Niu
Jintao Yang
Linda Dai
Temporal Evolution and Convergence Patterns of Urban Expansion in China: Evidence from 315 Cities over Two Decades
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
urban expansion
convergence analysis
multiple equilibria
title Temporal Evolution and Convergence Patterns of Urban Expansion in China: Evidence from 315 Cities over Two Decades
title_full Temporal Evolution and Convergence Patterns of Urban Expansion in China: Evidence from 315 Cities over Two Decades
title_fullStr Temporal Evolution and Convergence Patterns of Urban Expansion in China: Evidence from 315 Cities over Two Decades
title_full_unstemmed Temporal Evolution and Convergence Patterns of Urban Expansion in China: Evidence from 315 Cities over Two Decades
title_short Temporal Evolution and Convergence Patterns of Urban Expansion in China: Evidence from 315 Cities over Two Decades
title_sort temporal evolution and convergence patterns of urban expansion in china evidence from 315 cities over two decades
topic urban expansion
convergence analysis
multiple equilibria
url https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/14/7/241
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AT jintaoyang temporalevolutionandconvergencepatternsofurbanexpansioninchinaevidencefrom315citiesovertwodecades
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