A Probabilistic Design Framework for Semi-Submerged Curtain Wall Breakwaters
Semi-submerged curtain breakwaters are increasingly favored to protect marinas and other microtidal basins, yet they are still almost exclusively designed with deterministic wave transmission equations. This study introduces a fully probabilistic design framework that translates uncertainty in wave...
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MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| author | Damjan Bujak Dalibor Carević Goran Lončar Hanna Miličević |
| author_facet | Damjan Bujak Dalibor Carević Goran Lončar Hanna Miličević |
| author_sort | Damjan Bujak |
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| description | Semi-submerged curtain breakwaters are increasingly favored to protect marinas and other microtidal basins, yet they are still almost exclusively designed with deterministic wave transmission equations. This study introduces a fully probabilistic design framework that translates uncertainty in wave climate and water level design parameters into explicit confidence limits for transmitted wave height. Using Latin Hypercube Sampling, input uncertainty is propagated through a modified Wiegel transmission model, yielding empirical distributions of the transmission coefficients <i>K<sub>t</sub></i> and <i>H<sub>t</sub></i>. Our method uses the associated safety factor required to satisfy a 95% non-exceedance criterion, <i>SF</i><sub>95</sub>. Regression analysis reveals the existence of a strong inverse linear relationship (<i>R</i> = −0.9) between deterministic <i>K<sub>t</sub></i> and the probabilistic safety factor, indicating that designs trimmed to low nominal transmission (e.g., <i>K<sub>t</sub></i> ≤ 0.35) must be uprated by up to 55% once parameter uncertainty is acknowledged, whereas concepts with greater transmission require far smaller margins. Sobol indices show that uncertainty in <i>H<sub>m</sub></i><sub>0</sub> and T<i><sub>p</sub></i> each contribute ≈40% of the variance in <i>H<sub>t</sub></i> for a tide signal standard deviation of <i>σ<sub>η</sub></i> = 0.16 m, while tides only become equally important when <i>σ<sub>η</sub></i> > 0.30 m. Model-based uncertainty is negligible, standing at under 8%. The resulting lookup equations allow designers to convert any deterministic <i>K<sub>t</sub></i> target into a site-specific probabilistic limit with a single step, thereby embedding reliability into routine breakwater sizing and reducing the risk of underdesigned marina and port structures. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4a87b43baa1941b396c207572d64b9bf |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2412-3811 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Infrastructures |
| spelling | doaj-art-4a87b43baa1941b396c207572d64b9bf2025-08-20T02:21:02ZengMDPI AGInfrastructures2412-38112025-06-0110614410.3390/infrastructures10060144A Probabilistic Design Framework for Semi-Submerged Curtain Wall BreakwatersDamjan Bujak0Dalibor Carević1Goran Lončar2Hanna Miličević3Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, 10 000 Zagreb, CroatiaFaculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, 10 000 Zagreb, CroatiaFaculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, 10 000 Zagreb, CroatiaFaculty of Civil Engineering, University of Zagreb, 10 000 Zagreb, CroatiaSemi-submerged curtain breakwaters are increasingly favored to protect marinas and other microtidal basins, yet they are still almost exclusively designed with deterministic wave transmission equations. This study introduces a fully probabilistic design framework that translates uncertainty in wave climate and water level design parameters into explicit confidence limits for transmitted wave height. Using Latin Hypercube Sampling, input uncertainty is propagated through a modified Wiegel transmission model, yielding empirical distributions of the transmission coefficients <i>K<sub>t</sub></i> and <i>H<sub>t</sub></i>. Our method uses the associated safety factor required to satisfy a 95% non-exceedance criterion, <i>SF</i><sub>95</sub>. Regression analysis reveals the existence of a strong inverse linear relationship (<i>R</i> = −0.9) between deterministic <i>K<sub>t</sub></i> and the probabilistic safety factor, indicating that designs trimmed to low nominal transmission (e.g., <i>K<sub>t</sub></i> ≤ 0.35) must be uprated by up to 55% once parameter uncertainty is acknowledged, whereas concepts with greater transmission require far smaller margins. Sobol indices show that uncertainty in <i>H<sub>m</sub></i><sub>0</sub> and T<i><sub>p</sub></i> each contribute ≈40% of the variance in <i>H<sub>t</sub></i> for a tide signal standard deviation of <i>σ<sub>η</sub></i> = 0.16 m, while tides only become equally important when <i>σ<sub>η</sub></i> > 0.30 m. Model-based uncertainty is negligible, standing at under 8%. The resulting lookup equations allow designers to convert any deterministic <i>K<sub>t</sub></i> target into a site-specific probabilistic limit with a single step, thereby embedding reliability into routine breakwater sizing and reducing the risk of underdesigned marina and port structures.https://www.mdpi.com/2412-3811/10/6/144safety factorswave transmissioncurtain wall breakwatermarinaport |
| spellingShingle | Damjan Bujak Dalibor Carević Goran Lončar Hanna Miličević A Probabilistic Design Framework for Semi-Submerged Curtain Wall Breakwaters Infrastructures safety factors wave transmission curtain wall breakwater marina port |
| title | A Probabilistic Design Framework for Semi-Submerged Curtain Wall Breakwaters |
| title_full | A Probabilistic Design Framework for Semi-Submerged Curtain Wall Breakwaters |
| title_fullStr | A Probabilistic Design Framework for Semi-Submerged Curtain Wall Breakwaters |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Probabilistic Design Framework for Semi-Submerged Curtain Wall Breakwaters |
| title_short | A Probabilistic Design Framework for Semi-Submerged Curtain Wall Breakwaters |
| title_sort | probabilistic design framework for semi submerged curtain wall breakwaters |
| topic | safety factors wave transmission curtain wall breakwater marina port |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2412-3811/10/6/144 |
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