Substantial increases in future precipitation extremes—insights from a large ensemble of downscaled CMIP6 models
Abstract We investigated projected changes to daily mean, common extreme (99th and 99.7th percentile), and rare extreme (annual exceedance probability (AEP) 1 in 10, 50, and 100) precipitation events across Australia and its greater capital cities using a large ensemble of downscaled CORDEX-CMIP6 si...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | npj Natural Hazards |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00107-1 |
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| Summary: | Abstract We investigated projected changes to daily mean, common extreme (99th and 99.7th percentile), and rare extreme (annual exceedance probability (AEP) 1 in 10, 50, and 100) precipitation events across Australia and its greater capital cities using a large ensemble of downscaled CORDEX-CMIP6 simulations. The largest increases in precipitation extremes were seen over northern Australia, with the 1 in 100 AEP event in Darwin projected to increase by approximately 11.9% K−1. Other capital cities had lower increases but still substantial (7.6% K−1 for Brisbane, 7.3% K−1 for Sydney, 3.4% K−1 for Melbourne, and 4.4% K−1 for Perth). Large spatial differences were noted among the downscaled ensembles, highlighting the need for large ensembles to ensure uncertainties in host models and downscaling methods can be accounted for. The findings can inform decision making around flood management, urban planning, urban water supply and agriculture around Australia, in addition to revealing globally relevant scientific insights. |
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| ISSN: | 2948-2100 |