Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run.

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China ov...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Yatang Lin, Fangyuan Peng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2021-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253901&type=printable
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1850046372428906496
author Yatang Lin
Fangyuan Peng
author_facet Yatang Lin
Fangyuan Peng
author_sort Yatang Lin
collection DOAJ
description The COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China over different time horizons. Our analysis reveals that the significant growth in the detection rate of infectious cases, thanks to the expansion in testing efficiency, were as effective as city lockdowns in explaining the reduction in new infections up to mid-March. However, as we extended the analysis to July, increasing the detection rate to at least 50% is the only reliable way to bring the spread under control.
format Article
id doaj-art-4a2123ffc836483bb38424370131f965
institution DOAJ
issn 1932-6203
language English
publishDate 2021-01-01
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
record_format Article
series PLoS ONE
spelling doaj-art-4a2123ffc836483bb38424370131f9652025-08-20T02:54:28ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032021-01-01167e025390110.1371/journal.pone.0253901Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run.Yatang LinFangyuan PengThe COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China over different time horizons. Our analysis reveals that the significant growth in the detection rate of infectious cases, thanks to the expansion in testing efficiency, were as effective as city lockdowns in explaining the reduction in new infections up to mid-March. However, as we extended the analysis to July, increasing the detection rate to at least 50% is the only reliable way to bring the spread under control.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253901&type=printable
spellingShingle Yatang Lin
Fangyuan Peng
Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run.
PLoS ONE
title Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run.
title_full Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run.
title_fullStr Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run.
title_full_unstemmed Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run.
title_short Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run.
title_sort control strategies against covid 19 in china significance of effective testing in the long run
url https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253901&type=printable
work_keys_str_mv AT yatanglin controlstrategiesagainstcovid19inchinasignificanceofeffectivetestinginthelongrun
AT fangyuanpeng controlstrategiesagainstcovid19inchinasignificanceofeffectivetestinginthelongrun