Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run.
The COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China ov...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2021-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253901&type=printable |
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| _version_ | 1850046372428906496 |
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| author | Yatang Lin Fangyuan Peng |
| author_facet | Yatang Lin Fangyuan Peng |
| author_sort | Yatang Lin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China over different time horizons. Our analysis reveals that the significant growth in the detection rate of infectious cases, thanks to the expansion in testing efficiency, were as effective as city lockdowns in explaining the reduction in new infections up to mid-March. However, as we extended the analysis to July, increasing the detection rate to at least 50% is the only reliable way to bring the spread under control. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4a2123ffc836483bb38424370131f965 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-4a2123ffc836483bb38424370131f9652025-08-20T02:54:28ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032021-01-01167e025390110.1371/journal.pone.0253901Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run.Yatang LinFangyuan PengThe COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China over different time horizons. Our analysis reveals that the significant growth in the detection rate of infectious cases, thanks to the expansion in testing efficiency, were as effective as city lockdowns in explaining the reduction in new infections up to mid-March. However, as we extended the analysis to July, increasing the detection rate to at least 50% is the only reliable way to bring the spread under control.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253901&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Yatang Lin Fangyuan Peng Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run. PLoS ONE |
| title | Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run. |
| title_full | Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run. |
| title_fullStr | Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run. |
| title_short | Control strategies against COVID-19 in China: Significance of effective testing in the long run. |
| title_sort | control strategies against covid 19 in china significance of effective testing in the long run |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253901&type=printable |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yatanglin controlstrategiesagainstcovid19inchinasignificanceofeffectivetestinginthelongrun AT fangyuanpeng controlstrategiesagainstcovid19inchinasignificanceofeffectivetestinginthelongrun |