Modelling the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge patterns in northern Germany
Study region: Schleswig-Holstein, Germany Study focus: For water management and planning purposes, predictions of how groundwater recharge regimes are expected to change under climate change are of high importance. The northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein has a heavy reliance on groundwater r...
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825003325 |
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| author | Ian McNamara Tim Wolters Bernd König Anna-Lena Rugen Miriam Toro Martina Flörke Frank Wendland |
| author_facet | Ian McNamara Tim Wolters Bernd König Anna-Lena Rugen Miriam Toro Martina Flörke Frank Wendland |
| author_sort | Ian McNamara |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Schleswig-Holstein, Germany Study focus: For water management and planning purposes, predictions of how groundwater recharge regimes are expected to change under climate change are of high importance. The northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein has a heavy reliance on groundwater resources, and is expected to experience both increasing precipitation and potential evapotranspiration rates in the future. We implemented the high spatio-temporal deterministic mGROWA hydrological model (100 m, daily) under the full climate ensemble recommended for use in Germany (44 members) until the end of the 21st century to simulate future groundwater recharge changes. For evaluation of climate change impacts, 30-year periods were used. New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of the climate models show an increase in groundwater recharge rates over the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. This is the case for all three evaluated RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5); however, the increases are generally relatively small, with none of the changes classified as significant under the applied robustness test. We also implemented the “climate railguards” concept, which classifies the likely changes as the range between the 15th and 85th percentiles of the climate model results belonging to each RCP. Lastly, a comparison of the application of different spatial areas used for aggregation of results highlights the importance of selecting spatial units appropriate to the water management application. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4a072c49cd8e4f42a7fca70997e2ff1e |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-4a072c49cd8e4f42a7fca70997e2ff1e2025-08-20T03:08:28ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-08-016010250710.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102507Modelling the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge patterns in northern GermanyIan McNamara0Tim Wolters1Bernd König2Anna-Lena Rugen3Miriam Toro4Martina Flörke5Frank Wendland6Institute of Bio, and Geosciences: Agrosphere (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany; Engineering Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Bochum 44801, GermanyInstitute of Bio, and Geosciences: Agrosphere (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, GermanyDepartment of Geology and Soil of the State Office for the Environment Schleswig-Holstein as Geological Survey Schleswig-Holstein, Flintbek 24220, GermanyDepartment of Geology and Soil of the State Office for the Environment Schleswig-Holstein as Geological Survey Schleswig-Holstein, Flintbek 24220, GermanyDepartment of Geology and Soil of the State Office for the Environment Schleswig-Holstein as Geological Survey Schleswig-Holstein, Flintbek 24220, GermanyEngineering Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Bochum 44801, GermanyInstitute of Bio, and Geosciences: Agrosphere (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich 52425, Germany; Corresponding author.Study region: Schleswig-Holstein, Germany Study focus: For water management and planning purposes, predictions of how groundwater recharge regimes are expected to change under climate change are of high importance. The northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein has a heavy reliance on groundwater resources, and is expected to experience both increasing precipitation and potential evapotranspiration rates in the future. We implemented the high spatio-temporal deterministic mGROWA hydrological model (100 m, daily) under the full climate ensemble recommended for use in Germany (44 members) until the end of the 21st century to simulate future groundwater recharge changes. For evaluation of climate change impacts, 30-year periods were used. New hydrological insights for the region: The majority of the climate models show an increase in groundwater recharge rates over the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. This is the case for all three evaluated RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5); however, the increases are generally relatively small, with none of the changes classified as significant under the applied robustness test. We also implemented the “climate railguards” concept, which classifies the likely changes as the range between the 15th and 85th percentiles of the climate model results belonging to each RCP. Lastly, a comparison of the application of different spatial areas used for aggregation of results highlights the importance of selecting spatial units appropriate to the water management application.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825003325mGROWASchleswig-HolsteinClimate ensembleRepresentative concentration pathways |
| spellingShingle | Ian McNamara Tim Wolters Bernd König Anna-Lena Rugen Miriam Toro Martina Flörke Frank Wendland Modelling the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge patterns in northern Germany Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies mGROWA Schleswig-Holstein Climate ensemble Representative concentration pathways |
| title | Modelling the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge patterns in northern Germany |
| title_full | Modelling the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge patterns in northern Germany |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge patterns in northern Germany |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge patterns in northern Germany |
| title_short | Modelling the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge patterns in northern Germany |
| title_sort | modelling the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge patterns in northern germany |
| topic | mGROWA Schleswig-Holstein Climate ensemble Representative concentration pathways |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825003325 |
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